tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6676722569921276054.post4389456969980790464..comments2023-08-23T11:39:10.517-07:00Comments on Putin@war: Are the rebels in Slovyansk preparing a retreat?Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191947872920589070noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6676722569921276054.post-14063507780807731062014-05-20T23:05:40.615-07:002014-05-20T23:05:40.615-07:00I should add:
Even the first dude who ever wrote ...I should add:<br /><br />Even the first dude who ever wrote about guerilla warfare, Santa Cruz de Marcenado, mentionéd that armed uprisings are bascially the fault of the governor. I am sure the people of Donetsk have some REAL grievances with the government from the 23 years of mismanagement of the economy, etc.<br /><br />To some extent though, this uprising is transplanted&aided by Russians.<br /><br />Usually, armed uprisings are hard to defeat because by defeating the incursion, you bring back the same weak&mismanaged state that caused the uprising to begin with (see: Vietnam, Somalia etc). In this case though, the influence of the Russian government is an additional "factor x" and it might enough to remove that to kill the uprising.<br /><br />So, all in all, long-term success depends on taking those aforementioned grievances seriously&correcting them. Usually it's about ending corruption, introducing real rule of law, improving living standards etc. Hopefully a joint effort of Kyiv&the international community.<br /><br />And, of course, Russia knows this and that is why they want federalization - to institute corruption even more, thereby conservating a status quo of instability so to speak.Ben Doverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14372579434337447896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6676722569921276054.post-70338535008660060772014-05-20T22:54:05.026-07:002014-05-20T22:54:05.026-07:00If they do retreat though, they're separated f...If they do retreat though, they're separated from their "Power base" and IF the border is reasonably sealed off they'll be nder-supplied. After all, this is a better solution for the civilians than fighting it out in the streets, so even if this means a few of them getting away it's a significant victory.<br /><br />As always, you need to think a few steps ahead of the enemy so here's a few thoughts:<br />1. Is there a plan of how to bring back order and civilian institutions to Slavyansk and other cities?<br />2. Is there a plan of how to pursue or hinder the escaping separatists? This would be some kind of large-surface operation though which is manpower heavy. However, a lot of the manpower currently surrounding Slavyansk could probably be freed up.<br />3. Is there a plan to ensure separatists don't cross the border and then re-enter to restart the incursion?<br />4. Most importantly, there should be a long-term plan of how to return order, including strengthening och civil institutions, rule of law, searching for arms caches etc. Without a plan like this, they might as well hand over the cities now because then unrest will return sooner or later.<br /><br />All in all, being on the run separatists have lost the initiative and cannot achieve much. Ukr must hold and keep the initiative for the long term, with a combined civilian/military operation to restore order etc.Ben Doverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14372579434337447896noreply@blogger.com