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Monday, June 30, 2014

Yet another Russian convoy rolls through Lugansk 1-7

Webcam video:



1 personal car
7 trucks
1 BMD?
1 jeep
1 tank
1 civilian truck
1 civilian bus

This will be a couple of hours driving from the border for a tank. It means they were on their way whether their would have been a prolonging of the ceasefire or not!

There is no time to turn of the webcams this time... Just bring them in!


Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:

Russians making a big flanking movement to destroy heavy artillery units?

This video shows the sounds of shelling and the firing of GRAD rockets. In the end the trails can be seen in the sky.



The cameraman films from two positions. From the front of his apartment and from the back. Here are screenshots:



Red lines = rocket trails

The geolocation and point of view is like this:


In Google maps:



It is not easy to decide whether the rockets are incoming or outgoing, but I suspect them to give a smoke trail when launched and not before impact. It means they will be outgoing.

When we look at the red lines on the screenshot we may determine an approximate area where they were launched from:


They may fire somewhere in North-West direction. What would they fire at? There's only Ukrainian units in this direction. It means it is a RUSSIAN unit firing. And that is disturbing news, because this is far behind enemy lines for them!

The proRussian Military Maps (they only try to be accurate on Ukrainian units and just show puppets for (pro)Russian units) gives a clue:


There is a heavy artillery unit in the fields North of Krasny Lyman. It is the logical target... This is how they may have attacked:


And that poses another question: how did they get there? The bigger scale of Military Maps may give the answer:


There is still one bridge across the Siversky Donets river in Dronivka that the Ukrainian don't control (yellow circle). It means the Russians could have made a flanking movement as the red arrow indicates.

If they would continue the attack, it means several Ukrainian companies could be at serious risk, because they may be attacked from behind...



If you see any errors, or have additional information, please let me know.

Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:

Sunday, June 29, 2014

Strategic considerations


My answer:

1.
The Ukrainian army was NOT halted just before it could close the border. It halted AFTER 3-4 companies had moved into position to patrol the borders and the different border crossings. See this report. It is still a hard job, but it is something substantial.
Unfortunately on June 20th some 30 vehicles had been able to slip through the border and these may not be the last either.
In response to the presence of these substantial patrolling forces (pro)Russians shelled the border crossings to pieces. But they have not been able to attack or damage the patrolling companies.
Closing the borders is and stays priority number one! As I understand, during the ceasefire Ukraine is building more and more defensive positions along the border.

2.
Yes it is true that Ukraine lost vision of airspace in the East. It does not mean it already lost CONTROL of airspace, because no Russian jets are operating in Ukrainian airspace (except maybe the June 2nd attack on the administration building & park in Lugansk; see this blog).

3.
Blowing up the railways is hardly damaging to the Ukrainian army, since most of those happened INSIDE rebel territory. This is NOT the area where you are going to transport army units by train, because it will make them easy targets.
The only good reason I can think of, is that the (pro)Russians want to PREVENT CIVILIANS to travel out of the region. They need civilians as human shield!

4.
Yes it is very possible that Russia will intervene when the Ukrainian army gets the upper hand. And yes they may overrun and destroy a lot. When this happens, World War III has started. Nobody in the world can ignore this anymore, whether they like it or not.

Ukraine has a strategic storage of AK-47s of about 500.000 pieces. When all of their population will be armed with these, the Russian army is going to have an impossible task to overrun all of Ukraine even with heavy armor. Putin knows this. He cannot afford to go all out like this. He will try to get away with one little piece at a time. Putin is playing bluff poker.

5.
You cannot allow a burglar to plunder and destroy your house without a fight. If you surrender now, ALL of Ukraine is in trouble. Putin will only stop when the price is too high for him. It is better to die fighting than to watch at the sideline how your country and everything you value gets destroyed.

6.
NATO and the USA have to step in. They HAVE to apply sanctions NOW. If necessary, they have to fight on Ukrainian territory. If they don't want to fight on Ukrainian territory they will have to fight on Estonian territory within a year, or maybe even Polish territory. One day they will have to fight. An aggressor is only stopped when he is being stopped. When he gets away with his aggression, he will continue.
If NATO/USA will do nothing, then Ukraine still has to fight/defend on its own.

7.
The biggest problem of Ukraine is corruption. The police is corrupt. Large parts of the army is corrupt. Soldier die because of traitors. There is no time for games anymore. Corruption is a cancer that infects the whole body. Putin is like a parasite that feeds on this cancer. During these difficult times the cancer has to be cut out. This will always be painful. But when you survive, you have time to heal and you have been able to get rid of the cancer.
During these days it becomes very clear where the cancer is...

8.
The Ukrainian army has been ignored and neglected for a long time. And still the army does not know how to take good care of its soldiers, or even how to feed them. Yet, they are dealing with a very experienced enemy. They will need to learn how to fight/defend against them. This takes time and cannot be done overnight.

9.
The ceasefire makes Ukrainian checkpoints & units great for target practicing. It is pointless and has to stop.

10.
God forbid that we allow another Hitler/Stalin/Napoleon to grow so strong that millions will die again...


Some interesting responses:

Posted by Ukraine@war at 1 comment:

Merkel? What would YOU do when an agressive neighbor has his foot in your door?


@GorseFires had some very good statements lately that are worth a lot more attention:

I gathered them here:












So what do you do when an notoriously aggressive neighbor has already taken your garage, drives in your car and now has it's foot in your door?
You call your aunt Merkel from the police and she says: "It's ok. I just talked to him. He says he only wants to help. He will behave now. We need his gas anyway..."

Think about it... What are you going to do?

Would you build a NEW DOOR in the hallway?
Would you OPEN the door, drink some tea and talk with him?
Would you call somebody else from the police office?


DROP THE CALL WITH MERKEL & KICK HIM OUT & SHUT THE DOOR!
When you're done you may have a stiff conversation with your aunt again about what the freak was going on.


Some more interesting news from @bopanc
Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:

Saturday, June 28, 2014

Changes in pro(Russian) armored vehicles June 28th

Donetsk
Captured in Donetsk when army base surrendered:

Severodonetsk
Reported to be at Severodonetsk, but not confirmed/geolocated yet.



3 trucks with guns
2 small trucks
2 BMD

BUT: it is a copy of this video from Ukrainians of 22-5:




Here is a geolocated double sighting of a transport:
This must be one of the tanks spotted a day earlier in Krasnodon.

So that makes the number of confirmed armored vehicles like this:



Posted by Ukraine@war at 1 comment:

What ATO has been doing during the ceasefire

While there was a ceasefire for a week several movies have been made of units operating alongside the border. Here they are.

Marinovka 21-6



Geolocation:



Chervonopartyzansk 18-6 and 20-6
In an earlier report we have similar videos and fighting going on at the Chervonopartyzansk border crossing.


Krasnodon/Izvaryne 20-6



And on 27-6:



Here are the locations of the cameras and positions of the vehicles:



Since at similar dates there are units operating at three different locations, it means three different units are at these locations and not just one moving alongside the border:


No units have been spotted near the Dolzhanskyi border crossing (at the question mark), but it is likely that one would be there too.

Especially the Krasnodon/Izvaryne area is problematic. On June 20th 30 vehicles crossed that border in the very early morning when it was still dark WHILE the Ukrainian army was in the area.

On June 27th locals have spotted even some more vehicles crossing the border.

Militants have been shelling the border crossing and as a result the border guards had to abandon it. Here is a movie from 26-6 of the current state of it:



This news report show a bit of the work that is being done in Kharkov region:



Conclusion:
The Ukrainian army is making a real good effort in trying to close the borders with at least three substantial forces patrolling the areas. But it is not enough to close the gaps yet.


Posted by Ukraine@war at 2 comments:

Friday, June 27, 2014

(pro)Russian lost two tanks and got at least three new

From June 26th to 27th in the next four places tank attacks have been reported:



In Slovyansk there was a deadly attack on the Ukrainian checkpoint near the fish farm. One tank has been captured and one destroyed. Here is a photo of the captured one:
This tank looks the same as one of the first three tanks that entered Ukraine on June 12th:



It means the other two might have gone into that direction too.

By the way, it is confirmed that it came from Russia:

In Artemovsk the tank base has been attacked again and 1 tank was involved in the attack:



Here is a detailed report with photos.

In Siversk two tanks attacked across the river:


In Donetsk tank gun fire has been heard:

In Donetsk also a BRDM-2 an amphibious reconnaissance and patrol vehicle has been spotted in this movie:


It is openly flying the Russian flag! The location is here:


After some research we found out that it had already been seen in Siversk on June 19th:
The location of that rebel hideout is here.

Today 5 tanks have been spotted in Siversk:
Assuming that they did not travel all the way from the Russian border in one day, all available tanks in the region might have been send there for an all out attack on Yampil very soon.


Information from locals tell us that 2 tanks and 1 APC where spotted in Suhodolsk and in Krasnodon 3 tanks and 1 APC. These could be independent sightings. It could be the same convoy.



There is no confirmation yet, but these might be replacements for the two lost in Slovyansk.


This makes the situation by the end of June 27th like this:



Also see: Overview of where all these tanks came from.

(If you see any errors or have additional info, please let me know.)

Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:

Thursday, June 26, 2014

Overview of current heavy hardware in possession of (pro)Russians

Overview of origin, approximate location and condition.
This is only KNOWN and verified vehicles. There might be more of course.

5 BMDs
Captured from Ukraine in the beginning of ATO (See this Youtube video). Located at Slovyansk.

2-3 NONAs self propelled mortars
Initially one captured from the Ukrainians, but later destroyed. Received new ones from Russia.
See report.

2-3 GRADs
Recieved from Russia. One was lost in an attempt to rain havoc on a village and blame the army for it. One seems to be in Kramatorsk right now.
See this report.

3 T-64Bs, anti-air gun
Crossed the border on June 12th. Located in Donetsk.
See this report and this one.

4 tanks, 6BTRs, 14 trucks 2 guns (see this report)
Crossed the border on June 20th. 2 tanks and 2 BTRs went to Kramatorsk/Slovyansk. Some operating from White chalk hills.
2 tanks and 3 BTRs went to Torez and from there likely engaging towards Amvrosiivka and Marinovka. (See this report.)

2 BTR, 1 BMD, 2 T64b
Captured from Ukraine at Metalist on June 17th and revived. Located in and around Lugansk.
See report here and here and here.

2 tanks, 2 BMPs, truck with 120 mm mortar
First seen in Perevalsk on June 25th. Must have crossed the border independently from June 20th crossing. Destination unknown.
See this report.


This makes 11 tanks, 2-3 NONAs, 11 BTRs 2-3 GRADs, 2 guns, 1 anti-air gun, 1 120mm mortar and whatever they had been transporting INSIDE the trucks of course...

NOTE: when transports are done during the night and driven to final destinations they are not likely to be filmed. It means there might be substantially more hardware than this. But these are RECORDED



If you have any verifiable information about where they are, whether they are destroyed or whether new vehicles arrive, please let me know.
If you see any errors, please let me know.

UPDATE
This video shows another vehicle in Donetsk June 26th:

It is a  BRDM-2, an amphibious reconnaissance and patrol vehicle. If it is spotted in Siversk on June 20th, it may have traveled back to Donetsk, because some tanks arrived at Siversk.
Question remains: where did it come from?


UPDATE June 27th: (pro)Russians lost two and got at least three tanks.

Also see: Russian armor movements close to Ukraine's border.
Posted by Ukraine@war at 5 comments:

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Several more Russian armor movements close to the Ukrainian border

Video #1 from 23-6:



The column consists of:

1 retraction vehicle?
5  trucks
1 ammunition loading vehicle
1 GRAD? or just a truck?
1 field hospital
1 BTR #720
1 unidentified BTR
3 BTR #122 #121 #120 (note that #123 and #125 have been seen INSIDE Ukraine)
1 SA-19 Grison airdefense system #311 on a loader

The location is here:



In this video #2 electronic jamming equipment is transported 22-6:



Geolocation:



Video #3 with T-80 tanks in Tarasovskiy 22-6:



A screenshot:



4 T-80 tanks on loaders can be seen, where very likely the first has been missed. So it may be 5 tanks.

Geolocation is very likely here:


On Google maps:



If this is correct, this is NOT on a main road North or South, but on a side-way going West. There basically is only one sensible direction/path they could go to:


Dotted blue = border with Ukraine
Light blue = obvious route
Red = possible border crossings

In the worst case scenario 5 T-80 tanks will attack the Ukrainian force North of Lugansk from the back, cutting them of from their supply lines.


Video #4 T-80 tanks on a train transport in Millerovo June 20th:

Geolocation is here:



THIS IS DISTURBING!!!

It is the entrance to an offload area:


Some shots of the tanks:




These seem to be the same tanks as in Video #3!!
That is even more disturbing, because this train convoy consists of the following vehicles (thanks to @ain92ru who helped identify a lot of them):

10 tanks T-80U
2 ACRV M1974 Artillery command vehicles and reconnaissance vehicles
2 122 mm 2S1 Gvozdika heavy artillery
3 BMP-2
1 BMP-1KSh staff and command vehicle
1 BMP-2
2 MT-LB based vehicles, SA-13 Gopher, air-defense system
1 tank T-80U
1 BREM-1 recovery vehicle
1 medical car
1 truck
1 KP-130 field kitchen
1 truck
3  Petrol truck
1 truck
1 Jeep
1 army bus

In total 21 vehicles. It means the 4 spotted going to North of Lugansk might actually be these 21!









Video #5 Maslovka, Voronezh region, 350 north of Kharkov June 26th



Geolocation:






All these units are IN ADDITION to the 200 units we have seen earlier and are already close to the border. See this blog. We have not seen those move away from the border.


If you have seen more recent Russian army movements close to Ukraine's border, please let me know.


Posted by Ukraine@war at 2 comments:

Russian armor spotted in Perevalsk not seen before

Two videos appeared on June 25th reported to be in Perevalsk:





They are shot in the same car.

Here are some screenshots that determine the geolocation:


The frame that shows most of the scenery to the right: 


Frame that shows most of the scenery to the left:

This shot shows there is a line in the middle of the street:


It means the convoy must have been driving on the main road to, through or from Perevalsk.

There are two locations with a tree line in an angle to the main road as observed in the video:


Red = main road
Green = tree line in angle to the main road 

The area with the southern tree line has a lot of electricity poles in the field:


This can not be seen in the video. So it must be the northern location:


In Google maps:



The convoy consists of these vehicles:

1 tank maybe with number 1 or 4
2 BMDs with the number 123 and 125
3 trucks
1 mortar


Best shot of the number on this tank:










These vehicles have not been spotted before. Especially we haven't seen a mortar like that. They are driving South-West. They might either be heading towards Slovyansk, Donetsk or Torez.


Since the invading convoy from June 20th has been extensively recorded on many locations and these tanks had not been spotted there, they must have been crossed the border on a different occasion!


If you see errors or have additional information, please let me know.


Also see: New sighting of a tank in Lugansk, not seen before.
Also see: New reinforcements spotted in Torez.
Also see: Open Russian invasion into Ukraine has begun.

Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments: