Bus with civilians hit at Ukrainian checkpost near Volnovakha

Originally my analysis of the Volnovakha incident can be found here:

Evidence Strongly Implicates Russian-Backed Fighters In Bus Shelling That Killed 11 Civilians http://t.co/Im2bZjw6VS pic.twitter.com/0drXW00Yy8
— The Interpreter (@Interpreter_Mag) January 13, 2015

 Here is a situation map:

On a larger scale that looks like this:

Clearly the rockets came from Russian occupied territory.

In addition I tweeted these things about it, because they argued it was cased by a Ukrainian MINE:

Can somebody send this to the trolls? Maybe then they stop justifying Putins killings. I blocked all of them already. pic.twitter.com/pYv3gi2oiJ
— Ukraine@war (@DajeyPetros) January 13, 2015

@DajeyPetros Do these Russian Propaganda Trolls even have a conscience? Here, all impacts on the back of the tree: pic.twitter.com/N6ZDgEzVVr
— Ukraine@war (@DajeyPetros) January 13, 2015

@DajeyPetros Claymores do not make holes in the ground like this. GRAD or other MLRS does. pic.twitter.com/sXw5PCBgzV
— Ukraine@war (@DajeyPetros) January 13, 2015

The impacts in the bus show a banded pattern:

This can even be extended to the tree. Such a banded pattern is typically for MLRS impacts, such as GRADs.

Here is such a pattern from GRAD on an apartment building in Pervomaisk:

The red X is the impact crater.

This is how a warhead of a GRAD explodes:

It is in a circle around the rocket. It explodes TO ALL SIDES.
When we put the images together, you get this:

To be precise, the upper side of the warhead matches with the upper blue line:

While the bottom of the head matches with the lower blue line:

All in one picture:

So a typical GRAD blast pattern is:

1. banded
2. at an angle 
3. widening further away from the epicentre

This is EXACTLY what we see on the bus:

What's interesting about this, is that we can draw a plane from the banded pattern through the impact hole. And then the impact direction is perpendicular to this plane!

(sorry for not being able to draw a better image.)

Also this perpendicular angle has to EXACTLY match the impact hole in the ground (dotted yellow line):

So, in this Volnovakha case we see that:

1. the impact pattern is banded
2. it is at an angle
3. it is widening further away from epicentre
4. the perpendicular direction matches the direction of the impact crater

A mine would give a TOTALLY different pattern.

Conclusion
The Russians attacked a Ukrainian checkpost where a bus with civilians was waiting to pass by.
A MLRS rocket (GRAD or larger) hit in the field nearby.
The blast exactly covered the side of the bus, creating the multiple casualties that we see.


UPDATE 14-1
This video is showing the MLRS attack on the Volnovakha checkpoint:



This is a screenshot:

At least 33 explosions can be counted.

Terrain details match the new video showing an MLRS attack at the Volnovakha checkpoint. pic.twitter.com/xLcFMHC0TY
— Veli-Pekka Kivimäki (@vpkivimaki) January 14, 2015

The video has been recorded like this:

It means the bus and the hit on the bus can not be seen.
Yet the shadow of that impact CAN be seen on the video (large red circle in screenshot above).

So this video confirms the findings I already explained above. But it also debunk all troll theories.

Here I have mapped all impacts as best as I could:

There are even some 50 impacts!
It means more than one GRAD launcher must have been used. (If it was not heavier than GRAD).

But also we see the impacts are cut off on top. That is because the camera did not film them.

My prediction: there have been (a lot) more impacts!

MLRS in general show an oval pattern. The question is how big that oval was:

Or like this:

The direction of an MLRS attack is related to this oval pattern like this:

But we need to have a COMPLETE picture first before we can tell something about the final pattern and related direction.

My prediction: since more than 50 impacts can be counted more than one MLRS launcher has been used. And since not all area has been filmed we will find that a lot more impacts have occurred. We have seen dozens of movies with up to five GRAD-launchers, which means 5x40=200 rockets may have been fired...

Let's see what OSCE comes up with...

UPDATE
This is what OSCE came up with:

For more details about GRAD dispersion, look here:

@TimmersE1974 @DajeyPetros http://t.co/KnqnudiX3I say that normal dispersion is 1/130 length, 1/200 width of distance.
— Peter Johnson (@alcebaid) January 14, 2015

And then Peter Johnson asked an important question, I had not considered yet:

@DajeyPetros BTW, what is the length and width of the ellipse in meters?
— Peter Johnson (@alcebaid) January 14, 2015

@DajeyPetros we are doing something wrong... or it was battery fire from two or more machines... :-(((
— Peter Johnson (@alcebaid) January 14, 2015

Since the distance/diameter of the area covered is 630 meters, it would mean with the given formula the rockets were fired from some 80 kms distance. Impossible!
Thus the simple conclusion is: this has been caused by MORE THAN ONE MLRS launcher. We already knew this because we had some 50 impacts. So this is a confirmation that multiple launchers were involved.

Bad news is that therefor the spread pattern will not help us to confirm the direction. But that is not a big problem, because we already now the direction.

Another indication that multiple launchers were used, is that the first 6 explosions happen within 0,28 seconds:

@DajeyPetros @alcebaid it launches about 2 missile/sec. So it's at least 3 launchers.
— Huberto Cumberdale (@MorbidYoung) January 14, 2015

So, just to make sure everybody understands... MULTIPLE launchers must have been used, because:

1. there are some 50 impacts and GRAD has 40 tubes
2. spread pattern is WAY too wide for one launcher
3. 6 first, almost simultaneous impacts can't have been caused by a single launcher.

UPDATE II
A full length speed-up video has been released:



The camera turns to the back now, so we can count some more impacts, but not sure about some:

The total image looks like this:

Conclusion: the pattern says nothing about the direction :P.

The video DOES show something else though: civilian cars pass the checkpoint CONSTANTLY. It was not an unfortunate accident that civilians were hit. It was fortunate that NOT MORE civilians were hit! And it was IMPOSSIBLE NOT to hit civilians:



Draw your own conclusions on that...


These are remains of the rockets found:

Rocket fragments found at site of #Volnovakha bus attack. pic.twitter.com/s7vkubMruH
— Aric Toler (@AricToler) January 14, 2015

For comparison see this GRAD rocket from a different place:



Conclusion: these were GRAD rockets, probably three launchers and they did not fire all their rockets.


Also this photo shows that we don't have to have ANY doubt about the direction:



It is as was determined from the beginning:

UPDATE 15-1
A dashcam video appeared:



The impacts can be found starting at 1:11.

What's clear from this video is that AN ENTIRE ROW OF CARS was waiting to get through the checkpoint, including one more bus:

Some 15 cars including another bus had been waiting there.

@DajeyPetros @MaxRTucker imagine what would happen if rockets landed some 300 meters to the south? It was a deliberate massacre of civilians
— Peter Johnson (@alcebaid) January 15, 2015

Out of some 60 impacts ONLY ONE HAD HIT.
SO MANY MORE victims could have been there if the volley was on target!!!

Zoom in on moment of explosion:

People are walking at the side of the road just before impact 1:12:

With this dashcam video the deliberate attack on broad daylight on Volnovakha Checkpoint with a row of civilians cars waiting to get through, is the BEST DOCUMENTED Russian attack on civilians so far.

So to all Ukrainians... get your cameras out, grab your phones, instal these dashcams... because THAT is how we can prove and show the world what these Russian xxx are doing.

UPDATE 15-1
Retweet this tweet, to fight the Russian trolls who still desperately clinch on the a-mine-exploded-theory because that is all they have:

Russian Troll question of the day #Volnovakha (This will keep them busy again for a while...) pic.twitter.com/hdJjKZJkER
— Ukraine@war (@DajeyPetros) January 15, 2015

You can see for yourself in this zoomed in, stabilized and slowed down video:




UPDATE 16-1
The Russian St-Petersburg Trolls just can not stop... Latest trend is to say that an ENTIRE minefield blew up:

Maybe because Tripwire Graham walk there?

I will NOT give the link to the video, because I do not want to promote such nonsense.
The reason why you don't see clear explosions of fire is because most of the rockets get buried (deep) into the snow and ground before exploding. Although SOME fire can be seen.

Furthermore: scroll up to see the debris of the GRAD rockets sticking into the ground... taken from the aftermath video.

UPDATE 16-1
Some trolls say a soldier was spotted in a video wearing a claymore mine. This is the message for those who can not afford to by spectacles due to underpayment:

Watch zoomed in, stabilised and slowed video here:



Also see: possible launch location determined for Volnovakha GRAD attack.