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Saturday, January 24, 2015

Russian MLRS attack on Mariupol

In this video Zakharchenko announced the attack on Mariupol (the ultimate goal is to create a corridor to Crimea):



For those Who do not understand Russian, here is a summary of what he is saying:




And then this happened (29 civilians died)...





















This is the route he is walking:







Link to VERY GRAPHIC video from Azov looking for victims.

This dashcam video recorded the moment of impacts:




It is filmed like this:

Another dashcam video shows how cars get hit:


CONCLUSION
Here are all the impacts (with directions = red lines), fires and victims I have been able to find:



It is VERY CLEAR where these rockets came from:



This is done by RUSSIAN rocket launchers, with RUSSIAN rockets, by soldiers speaking RUSSIAN, running RUSSIAN flags on their vehicles and with RUSSIAN emblems on their sleeves...

If you still want to insist that these are just local monkeys, watch this video and ask yourself this question: "Who is responsible for the destruction if you give a dangerous weapon to a monkey? The monkey or the one gave him the weapon(s)?"




But what is actually the difference anyways, if you have locals, local criminals, 'rebels', 'separatists', monkeys, 'mercenaries' or an army fighting for you? They ALL fight for you... so it is RUSSIAS WAR AGAINST UKRAINE.


Maybe you want to retweet this:
Posted by Ukraine@war at 1 comment:

Friday, January 23, 2015

Poroshenko's dilemma

"I am a president of peace. Not of war." said president Poroshenko.

The problem is: his country is at war whether he likes it or not.

But Poroshenko knows it is a war he can not win.

Why?
Because Putler has nukes (and many other nasty tricks of course).

E.V.E.R.Y single time Ukraine upscaled it's response to the Russian aggression to counter it, the Russians upscaled THEIRS even more.
And where does that end?

If the road of upscaling-aggression would be walked, in the end Putin would use nukes. And Ukraine does NOT have an answer to that.
So an all out war with Russia... Ukraine will loose that. Period.

And THUS Ukraine seeks help from the West and started with an unilateral ceasefire and later Minsk bilateral, EVEN THOUGH everybody knew the Russians would use it to restructure and reinforce their forces in Ukraine.
But Ukraine can not win the war against Putler without the West. That's why Poroshenko listens to them. To get their help. And THEY say: don't fight.


Because the West does not want war. Not in Europe but neither in Ukraine. It's bad for business!
So the West hesitates. Lingers. Tries to find a 'diplomatic solution'.
And they tell Poroshenko: do not fight, because we will sanction Putin. Show the world HE is the aggressor and not you and we will hit him in his pocket.

Why they do it this way? Why not send weapons?
Because Putin has nukes!
We don't want a nuclear war. We don't want upscaling-aggression all the time with the use of nukes in the end.


Sanctions are working pretty good when you look at the Ruble. But it's not good enough. Because it takes a loooot of TIME before it really has a good effect.
But ALSO because the West does not understand Putins game. Putin does not play by the rules. That is: OUR rules. Putin has his own set of rules and PRETENDS to play OUR game. That's why he is able to endlessly fool Western diplomats.

If sanctions hurt Putin... he will STEAL what he needs to survive. He STEALS Crimea. He STEALS coal from Donbas and sells it to Ukraine who has no option but to buy it. He steals a complete factory for helicopter engines from Donbas, transports it in his humanitarian white trucks and builds it up again somewhere in Russia.
Putin will STEAL from the West too. Mark my words. He will if he needs to do that for his survival.

This is one way he can do that:

Because NOBODY can get Putin and his gang. Why? He has nukes.
Imagine... one bomb on Berlin and Europe is out.
Because what we gonna do? Nuke back? And get an all out Nuke war? We don't want THAT.

And THUS the West has to allow Putin grabbing what he wants and HOPING things will get better anyways.

But what the West does not fully understand is that they have REALLY GONE MAD in Russia. Beyond imagination. To this point that almost all of them believe the crazy propaganda they produce themselves. It is a vicious circle they are in. A VERY aggressive one.
AND they have nukes... a lot of them!
That is a very dangerous combination. Madness and Nukes...


Putin is going to grab what he wants with force. If anybody wants to stop him, he will upscale. Our collective (Ukrainian AND European) dilemma is this: How much will we allow him to grab before we say it is enough? Until he is in Berlin?

You think he will not go to Berlin? His bombers capable of delivering nukes have already been in Portugal. Of course he will. U.N.L.E.S.S somebody or something stops him.
(That is... he and his gang, because they are all in it together.)

And therefor the ULTIMATE question we have to ask ourselves is this: how are we going to deal with Putlers nukes if he would start to use them?

Do we have an answer to that?
If we DON'T have this answer, he will eventually (between now and so many years) run all over Europe with his crappy tanks, with uncountable victims.




Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:

Ilovaisk 2.0 in the making at Debaltseve

Ilovaisk 2.0 is at hand.


Read about the first Ilovaisk here.


Here are the reasons why...
1st:
The Russian army had recently been taking over control of Alchevsk and Stakhanov from the cossacks there.


2nd:
This video shows 43 Russian army vehicles including tanks, driving through Stakhanov (as the cameraman says):



It means the area has been reinforced and received another formidable battle group.

 3rd:
Debaltseve has been receiving artillery for DAYS IN A ROW now. This is always in preparation of the real attack:




4rd:
Zaharchenko has openly declared war:


While Steinmeier was trying to appease Putin:



5th
Russian Major-General Vyaznikov is relocating his HQ to Soledar:


Read about him here.

And yes, I KNOW it is called the "Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination (JCCC)" of the SMM of OSCE". But WHO CARES what name you give it? A Russian General, who is commanding ALL Russian forces in Ukraine has his office (also called HQ...) ON THE UKRAINIAN SIDE of the frontline.
How can people be so stupid!

He is relocating his HQ now... this means that attacks are eminent. If you want to see it or not.


6th 
The area is blocked by natural barriers:


There are lakes and a stream bed that form natural barriers. Basically there is only ONE decent bridge crossing the area (red arrow). All the other crossings are through difficult terrain.
In fact ALL the Russians need to do is have their artillery aimed at the crossings and there is no way out. 

7th
Russian propaganda site MilitaryCrap shows the ongoing attacks ALREADY.



Yes it's a propaganda site, but the ATO map shows the same (in a different way).

So people, the next disaster is in the making.

(Unless some genious people in Ukrainian Army Command have been preparing for this, but that seems unlikely, when they even let the invaders general on their own soil.) 


UPDATE 26-1
Another video of the/a substantial attack force near Stakanov. 10 tanks, 4 trucks, 1 BMP, 2 vans:




This article from Kyivpost shows how much wounded come in DAILY from Debaltseve area and how it seems Ukrainian authorities are hiding (or at least not talking about) these numbers.

Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:

Thursday, January 22, 2015

OSCE_SMM observer is tweeting STRAIGHTOUT Russian Propaganda

Ok, here we go...

Pay attention!

This Linked-in profile shows a man named Herbert Meyer-Bade:



It says he is a 'Monitoring Officer at OSCE SMM in Ukraine'.

It also says his twitter account is @meyerbade. So these are connected.

When we do a search in Google for his name and OSCE, a PDF-file shows up:

It says he was on a election observation mission in Serbia in 2014. This was also mentioned on his Linkedin profile.
So it is clear that he (or at least his name) is linked to OSCE. It COULD be an imposter who takes the identity of a OSCE person, but this does not seem likely. If more info comes in, I'll update.

Now here you can find an interesting tweet of him:
Link to archived tweet.

Now that 'bus-driver'story started with this article. It is from Korrespondent.net owned by the youngest olicharch in Ukraine Sergey Kurchenko, who, according to wikipedia, has left Ukraine after Yanukovych fled. A warrant for his arrest has been issued...
Ok, get it? 

As has EXTENSIVELY been analyzed in this blog, the bus has been hit by a GRAD rocket coming from Dokuchajevsk. We even found the video launching the rockets...

Whether this bus driver "Sergei Cherenko" is a real person, a fake name and/or really a bus driver is not clear right now. Nobody bothered to investigate, because this is a FAKE PROPAGANDA STORY...!!!
And some of these stories spell his name as Cherenko while others as Chernenko...


So Herbert Meyer-Bade, who is supposed to neutrally monitor events in Ukraine, tweets OUTRIGHT propaganda lies into the world in an attempt to obscure the criminal event about Volnovakha...

Furthermore he uses the hashtag #civilwar a lot (archived thread). A clear attempt to portray the Russian war against Ukraine as a CIVIL war, which it is not!




Conclusion
OSCE should FIRE THIS MAN, since he OBVIOUSLY COLLABORATES with aggressor Russia!!! This man is NOT neutral. 
The risk is TOO big that his influence leads to false reports and/or withholding of important information and/or sending important information to the Russians.


UPDATE 23-1
His entire twitter-account has been removed!!! That is something, but if the man is still working for OSCE SMM then NOTHING changed!
His Linkedin profile is still up and it still says he is a monitoring officer...


UPDATE 3-2
In a private message somebody told me she contacted OSCE about this. She got this message back:
"Dear,
Regarding Mr. Herbert Meyer-Bade, he is indeed an OSCE SMM Monitor who was seconded by Germany. He is currently on leave, and has just offered his resignation. His Twitter account has also been closed.
Thank you for alerting us to this situation. We will do everything we can to continue closely screening applications from candidates for the SMM, as we do for all other positions in the OSCE.

Kind regards,

Natacha Rajakovic Deputy Spokesperson OSCE Communication and Media Relations | osce.org Wallnerstrasse 6 | 1010 Vienna"
I wrote to Natacha if she could confirm this was hers, but never got a reply back.

JUST IN: shortly after publishing this update on the blog I DID get a message back from Natasha. 


And then Michael wrote this:





Currently Mayer-Bades Linkedin profile shows he PREVIOUSLY worked for OSCE:


His Twitter-account is back:


But it no longer shows he is working for OSCE.

He is still tweeting his obvious pro-Russian propaganda:


Conclusion
It seems official now that Meyer-Bade is not working for OSCE-SMM anymore. OSCE did the right thing.


Also see: Aerial photo from OSCE UAV of Volnovakha shows their own NNE direction was wrong
Also see: why did OSCE invite a Russian General to Volnovakha crime scene?
Also see: What's the problem with OSCE?


Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:

GRAPHIC: Leninsky bus attack

Yet another attack on a bus with high civilian casualties (estimated between 10-15):









These are screenshots of the damage to bus, car and buildings:








This is a mortar impact near the tram:


These directions projected on a map:


On a larger scale with a tremendous 5 kms range:



@ChristopherJM made this brilliant photo of that impact:


It shows the direction is 139 degrees. But the phone may not be exactly in the line of the hole:


So, within the margin of error (for both of us), this indicates into the same direction!

Also this photo shows that 82 mortars must have been used, since the hole is smaller than his phone (Iphone 5 is 12,4 cms high):



The crater near the bus also indicates the shell came from similar NNW direction:



On the map:



It is strange how a mortar can cause so many victims, because after one shell people run for cover. But here is a video, made by the Terrorussians themselves, that shows a mobile mortar, capable of firing 4 mortars in a row. That may explain why many people can get caught by surprise:




But here is ANOTHER example of what could be possible:


A mortar hidden in a truck, so it can fire 'unseen'. Link to original article (in Russian).


The Russians bring in a captured Ukrainian Cyborg commander at the crime scene, to publicly blame him for this attack:




They kick him and they beat him in front of the camera:



The car they use is interesting too:
But according to this source they copied the license plate of another car.

'DNR' reports they have the truck and already destroyed it!!!

UPDATE 
OSCE has been on the location. This is their report:


So does OSCE REALLY want to say that the crater was NE of the bus while it was SW?


You see? The written accounts of OSCE are VERY susceptible for error and there is NO way to check if they are right. That makes their reports vulnerable for false information.
Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

DONETSK AIRPORT HAS FALLEN

After 240 days of relentless defence of Donetsk Airport, it now seems it has fallen...


A volunteer expresses his point of view on the events:


Source.

LieNews is showing a video where they roam around the area that previously was the only left supply route to the Terminal. There are several dead soldiers:

 It has earlier been reported that the Terminal has fallen and Ukraine said it would launch a counterattack to take it back.

With the high number of casualties that is now reported and the video showing the Russians all over the place, it looks like that counterattack has failed...

Already the Russian tanks are trying to surround Pisky now:
If true (see article), that is REALLY bad news:


It means they have broken through the front line at Nevelske.

This Russian video also shows they are 'all over the place'...




Tribute to those who defended it, and Ukraines and Europe's freedom:




Meanwhile Germany's Foreign Minister Steinmeier ALSO thinks he had a breakthrough:


It is INCOMPREHENSIBLE!!!!!!!!!

Remember what Poroshenko said?


Well... Donetsk Airport has fallen. Ukraine better embraces itself, because the hordes of hell soon flood the place in euphoria.

Here you can find the official bla bla we call on all parties to bla bla... report. MEANWHILE RUSSIA IS ATTACKING, INVADING AND SHELLING.


Checkpoint 31 has fallen:


SO DO THEY NEVER LEARN?

Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:

Aerial photo from OSCE UAV of Volnovakha shows their own NNE direction was wrong

OSCE published a report about the Volnovakha attack that for the first time(?) includes a photo:


The photo is made by one of their UAVs and shows the checkpoint and part of the impact area:


The nice thing about this is that the impact craters tell us something about the direction where the rockets came from:


We have to be careful to calculate an EXACT angle based on this photo, because the photo itself was taken at an angle and that means the impact-angles get distorted (a bit).
Nevertheless what we can CLEARLY see, is that the direction of impact is at a (slight) angle (red line) with the road (yellow line).

When we copy these lines on a map, it looks like this:


As can be seen, the direction of impact is NOT NNE as was stated by OSCE in an earlier report.
The direction IS consistent with mine and other peoples earlier assessments:


That NNE direction has been used by Russian trolls to argue that that assessment was not correct. And even Russia's envoy to the OSCE used that report to state it was not correct:




To put it mildly, this shows how the 'handwork' of OSCE-members delivering only written reports is NOT RELIABLE enough. The reason is that nobody can check how they came to their conclusions and whether they were right or not.

My suggestion to OSCE is to let their people make photos and videos and release those to the public with their reports.


I will NOT discuss here whether their 'NNE-report' was a deliberate falsification or just a unfortunate human misinterpretation.
But OSCE DOES need to understand that their credibility is not very high at the moment with the public and we have many questions about their neutrality in Ukraine.



Also see: What's the problem with OSCE?
Also see: why did OSCE invite a Russian General to Volnovakha crime scene?



Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:
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