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Friday, November 7, 2014

Strange impact near School 63 proof that Ukraine fired it?

FIRST:
This video shows ANOTHER shell that hit near school 63 in Donetsk:



The video is uploaded on November 6th, while the incident happened on November 5th.

Here are some screenshots:




The last one shows the location and thus it can be positioned like this on the map (together with the other impact at the football field):


There are some strange features about this 'impact crater'. It has a really distinct blast pattern on the wall that has an UPWARD direction:


And the wall from the stairs has a broad damage line at 45 degrees:


And when you have a good look at the ground, it is not one big hole, but more like a slot connected with the damage on the stair-wall.

As such it looks like something exploded against the wall and the shrapnel reflected by the wall hit the ground and the stair-wall.
But how could a mortar shell hit the wall and get detonated like that? The ignition is in its tip, that needs to hit something.
And how can such an UPWARD facing blast-pattern have been created by a shell that comes DOWN with high speed hitting the wall? One would expect the blast to face more downward?

So the question rises: could something have been shot UPWARDS hitting the wall?

Well...

The third screenshot above shows that this area is ELEVATED. The stair goes further down indeed. It means somebody COULD have been standing at a lower level, aiming at the wall that is higher and thus aiming upwards.
This COULD have been a grenade from a grenade-launcher attached to a rifle for instance:


This Panoramio photo shows how it could have been fired:


Or this one:



Maybe this gives the upward pattern? And the shrapnel deflected by the wall would create the other damage...

But to be sure, we would need some INDEPENDENT OSCE monitors to assess the location, make high res PHOTOGRAPHS, take samples and determine what fragments are there and what caused this.

Remember how they wrote that they had examined TEN craters of which FOUR were created by 122 mm mortar shells and TWO by 122mm artillery rounds? So it means they were not able to determine the other 4... Maybe some were created by something else? Maybe this one was a grenade?
Why is OSCE not A LOT more specific?


If this was caused by a grenade, when would this have been done?
The point is that this video has been uploaded on November 6th. This is AFTER I published my initial report which has been ALL OVER the Ukrainian media. OSCE visited the site at november 6th and 7th. None of the earlier videos show this impact. The video specifically starts with this impact and then also shows the first one to establish the relation with that.
The building shows some damage which IS visible on the first video, but these smashed windows may also have been caused by the explosion at the football field.

So what I suggest here is that it IS a possibility that needs to be considered, that the FSB caused this damage AFTER the incident and AFTER my publication and to mislead the OSCE...


SECOND:
But... if we suppose that it WAS a shell that hit the ground, from what direction could it have come?

I want to suggest that a shell coming from 'high-angle fire' as OSCE says, might have come slightly ACROSS the fence on the wall an still hit next to the wall. Like this:


But even if we don't want this and want to draw the line straight alongside the wall, then these lines would look like this on a larger scale:


The lower red line is the one slightly across the wall. The upper red line is the one alongside the wall.
These lines are the outermost EASTERN border from where this shell could have been fired. Or it has been fired from more to the West. 

Yes, most of that territory is in Ukrainian control. But not all. It means the shell COULD have been fired from Russian controlled area. Yes, that is close to the frontline. But if they can fire a shell TOWARDS the Ukrainian army from the front line, then they can fire it into Donetsk as well from there. 

For instance, this railway behind an old mine surrounded by trees is a perfect spot to fire one or more shells into Donetsk:


Or this spot at the border of a forest, hidden by the trees, or the other one behind the tree line:


There are many good spots like that:


BUT... they can fire from the airport too, or from the VOSTOK trenches just before Pisky, which is NW from the school... (red encircled area).

The point is this: OSCE says as well 120 mm mortar shells were fired as 122 artillery rounds...

What does that mean? It means it has been a COORDINATED attack with several 'sources' involved. And they all fire INTO THE SAME AREA... That means this area has been CHOOSEN, PREDETERMINED. Different ordinances had to be set up, aimed, and fired almost simultaneously (within a period of a couple of minutes).

It was NOT a random attack!

It is hard to imagine that the Ukrainians synchronise such and attack WITH the Russians. Either these shells came from the Ukrainians or they came from the Russians. If it is clear that one shell came from the Russians, ALL came from the Russians...
In the first blog about this, it is already clear that one shot came from the Russian side. It means this one was ALSO fired by the Russians. And it is no problem for them at all to fire close from the front-line TO MAKE IT LOOK LIKE it was fired by Ukraine.


Conclusion
There is not a small possibility that this 'new' impact is a setup, created after the incident. But even if it is not, there is NO proof at all this shot was fired by the Ukrainian army. Not even if it DID come from the NorthWest. Since it was a deliberate, coordinated attack with multiple ordinances involved it must have been fired by ONE side only. Since the other shell clearly came from Russian side, this one is fired by them too.


Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:

What's the problem with OSCE?

In this report the OSCE blames Ukraine for the shelling on and around school No63 in Donetsk on the 5th of November.

They state that ALL of the impacts came from the NW and thus blaming Ukraine for this:


Yet as shown in this analysis, at least one of the shells could not have come from that direction AT ALL.

Here are the problems I have with this report:
  • OSCE does NOT provide ANY details how they come to their conclusion. No calculations, no images, no measurements, none whatsoever. This makes it IMPOSSIBLE to determine whether they were right or not. They just state and we have to believe based on their authority?
  • I have given a detailed assessment. Everybody can see how and why I come to my conclusions. Everybody can criticise me on this in detail and so they do. If I am wrong, or new information leads to tweaking of conclusions, so be it and I correct. OSCE: nothing of this.
  • When one finds a big crater like this one:


    how does OSCE determine from which direction it came? Especially when they say shots were from 'high angle fire', it means it is much more difficult to determine the direction than shots fired with a more horizontal angle.
    Maybe they can explain in detail how they can see that this shell came from the NW? So we can have our own experts look at it and see if they were right? If they fail to provide that information they should retract their report or delete the conclusions.
  • They state that nearby shelling forced them to leave:



    Excuse me? This is just a lame excuse for making a lousy report. Look at this map:



    Two kms SW means either a forest, a cemetery or a neighborhood with apartment buildings. Who would want to be shelling there (except for the Russians)?
    But even if so, why would you run for that when you are 2 kms away? At 3 kms distance at Donetsk Airport there is CONSTANT shelling, including the area all around it. If 2 kms is too dangerous, why do you go there in the first place?

    Remember the video with Givi were a shell explodes NEARBY and fragments fly around, but he just keeps talking into the camera:
    2 kms... give me a break.

  • Why did they not take photos and publish them?
  • OSCE has been compromised before:
    The problem with these photos is not the incident in itself, but the fact that this is an indication for what kind of relationship they have with the Russian militias.



  • And what about this?


    So the coordinator of the OSCE observers at the border is a Russian citizen and former official at Ministry of Foreign Affairs... Give me a break! With people like this, they loose EVERY credibility for neutrality and this shows AGAIN from their report about this shelling.


Posted by Ukraine@war at 3 comments:

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Rocket that hit School No63 did not come from Peski

School No63 in Donetsk has been hit, with two children dead.
This is the report from the Russians, claiming the shell came 'from Peski



This photo from this facebookpage:


shows how the fence is bent INWARDS. It means the shell must have come from the LEFT side.

This screenshot also shows that the shell bent the fence inwards:



This screenshot:


shows where the shell hit the ground and exploded. The two dead children are covered behind it, where the people are.
It is clear that the shell bent the fence and not the explosion, because the right part of the fence is not bent at all where the explosion hit.

Now we can draw a line from the position where the shell hit the fence to where it exploded (upper red line).
Drawn on the ground this gives the direction where it came from (lower red line).

This Google Streetview photo:


shows the same building on the background as on the facebook photo and the same sportsfield in front of it. The difference is that Streetview has a dated photo without the fence, which is newly build there.

Nevertheless, this gives us the exact location of the field and the fence:


The red arrow shows from which direction the shell came.

On a larger scale that looks like this:



 Conclusion
The shell came from the direction of Makeevka. All that area is Russian occupied area. The Russians shot the shell and try to blame and frame Ukraine with it.

(Thanks to @Catfitz)



UPDATE 7-11
My previous analysis got a lot of attention and not everybody agrees with it :D.

@Conflict_Report assessed the direction more Northward:
This OSCE report even says ALL craters they saw came from NW direction:


Now another much higher quality movie has become available filming the football field impact area:



This allows for a more precise calculation, then the first estimate:

First of all look at this screenshot:



The stones forming the edge in front and outside the fence are pushed OUTWARD from the fence/field.
This can also be seen in this screenshot from the other side:



This means that the explosion happened BEYOND the stones and not IN FRONT of the stones. It means the explosion did not happen in front of the fence. Most likely the shell hit the fence first, ripping it open and bending it inwards and THEN hit the ground BEHIND the stone ridge pushing these stones backwards.

Another indication that this is indeed the case, is the damage on the green, steel pole holding the fence.

This screenshot shows that pole from the inside:



There are a few scratches on the INSIDE (left arrows) and all the paint is gone on some area at the right side (right arrows).

The OUTSIDE of that pole looks like this:


It has hardly any scratch or damage.
The pole to the left DOES have damage:


But it is hard to see what exactly it is. Either it is on the side of it, or it is because it is bend and ripped open too, like the fence. Either way the right pole, where the explosion was closest does NOT show damage OUTSIDE, indicating the explosion was (just) INSIDE the fence/field.

For comparison see the damage done to the pole that was much further away, but in the line of the blast:



It has many big and small holes (click to enlarge).

Not only the pole has damage, the fence itself is broken on many places where little fragments cut through it:



And to the left of this:



Note how the pole next to the jacket has severe holes, but the pole next to the exit has only scratches. Also the much larger pole behind the fence has severe holes.

This screenshot looks into the direction of the jacket from the blast area:



Stripes can be seen in the grass from fragments that cut through it. This is the same screenshot with red lines indicating these stripes:



This is the same from a different angle:



Only very few and little stripes can be seen on the sides of the impact crater along the fence, The main area with these stripes is here:



That was the direction of the blast and that is why the pole next to the exit has minor scratches and the pole and fence in the middle of this blast is severely damaged.

On the map it looks like this:


This basically shows from what direction the shell came:


Here is the center of the blast area in two more screenshots:



When this direction is drawn on a larger map with a 20 km range and an error margin, the shell could have been fired anywhere from within this red area:


This is much more Northwards than in the first assessment, but it is still all Russian occupied territory and impossible for Ukraine to have fired this.

Precaution
One little precaution should be taken. If the shell had hit the fence first, it might have slightly changed its course.
Something like that was documented in this case when Russia fired Smerch rockets onto a Ukrainian military camp from Russian territory:


Because the rocket hit the car first it changed course before it penetrated the ground at a different angle.

Could something like this have happened too? Of course, but only within the parameters of physics.


If the shell would have come from the NW it would had to follow the yellow path. It would have hit the pole and it would be strange that the fence is ripped open at another location. The red line though shows a path that could be possible.

If we assume that something like that DID happen... how could the blast area with this distinct (and different) direction have happened?
Maybe the folded grass gives a clue? On that side most of the shrapnel was dampened by the soil and grass. Outwards of the fence the shrapnel was blocked by the stone bars and to the left most of it because this opposed the direction of impact.

So let's not be too precise. Let's keep the widest range of possibilities open. Then we would still get something like this:



New conclusion
Even with the new more detailed assessment, this shell still could not have come from NW Ukrainian side.
The fact that DIFFERENT shell types had been used, as indicated by the OSCE-report, is proof that MULTIPLE sources fired into this location simultaneously in a coordinated attack. This may also mean that they fired FROM DIFFERENT LOCATIONS and directions. Yet it is hard to believe that Ukraine would fire simultaneously onto the SAME civilian area as the Russians do! If this shell came from Russian side, ALL of them came from Russian side... even if they may have come from another direction.


Also see: What's the problem with OSCE and their report about School No63?
Also see: Is strange impact crater proof that Ukraine fiing at the school?
Also see a similar analysis: Russia shelled Ukraine with Smerch rockets FROM RUSSIAN TERRITORY.


Update 8-11
Doesn't the impact on the pole in this photo (red rectangle):


show that the explosion was IN FRONT of the fence (red line)?

No. That pole is bend as can be seen in the yellow rectangle (click to enlarge). And even this Russian soldier/reporter says the shell did not hit in front of the fence.


and he points in the same direction as I argued above:


Taken from this video.

One of the boys said this (translation by @Catfitz):
"We were playing soccer near School No. 63. At first everything was quiet. Then a shell suddenly fell right on the school. We tried to run away, there were 9 of us, and there at the exit, near the fence on the field, a shell landed. Three guys managed to run away, it killed two of my friends, and four others, including me, were injured.
The first shell landed -- I didn't see it exactly -- I was too distracted somehow when it fell. But the second fell right under the playing field, not going into it, but under the fence, under the barrier. The fence exploded, so it turned out I didn't manage to run up to it, and it [the shell] caught me."
With this additional information we can conclude this (AGAIN but now spelled out): the shell came exactly between the fence and the stone bar. it hit the fence first at an high angle, indenting it and guiding it so it landed exactly behind the stone bars.

Posted by Ukraine@war at 7 comments:

Saturday, November 1, 2014

This is why Russians laugh there socks off







Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:
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