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Showing posts with label strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label strategy. Show all posts

Friday, January 23, 2015

Ilovaisk 2.0 in the making at Debaltseve

Ilovaisk 2.0 is at hand.


Read about the first Ilovaisk here.


Here are the reasons why...
1st:
The Russian army had recently been taking over control of Alchevsk and Stakhanov from the cossacks there.


2nd:
This video shows 43 Russian army vehicles including tanks, driving through Stakhanov (as the cameraman says):



It means the area has been reinforced and received another formidable battle group.

 3rd:
Debaltseve has been receiving artillery for DAYS IN A ROW now. This is always in preparation of the real attack:




4rd:
Zaharchenko has openly declared war:


While Steinmeier was trying to appease Putin:



5th
Russian Major-General Vyaznikov is relocating his HQ to Soledar:


Read about him here.

And yes, I KNOW it is called the "Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination (JCCC)" of the SMM of OSCE". But WHO CARES what name you give it? A Russian General, who is commanding ALL Russian forces in Ukraine has his office (also called HQ...) ON THE UKRAINIAN SIDE of the frontline.
How can people be so stupid!

He is relocating his HQ now... this means that attacks are eminent. If you want to see it or not.


6th 
The area is blocked by natural barriers:


There are lakes and a stream bed that form natural barriers. Basically there is only ONE decent bridge crossing the area (red arrow). All the other crossings are through difficult terrain.
In fact ALL the Russians need to do is have their artillery aimed at the crossings and there is no way out. 

7th
Russian propaganda site MilitaryCrap shows the ongoing attacks ALREADY.



Yes it's a propaganda site, but the ATO map shows the same (in a different way).

So people, the next disaster is in the making.

(Unless some genious people in Ukrainian Army Command have been preparing for this, but that seems unlikely, when they even let the invaders general on their own soil.) 


UPDATE 26-1
Another video of the/a substantial attack force near Stakanov. 10 tanks, 4 trucks, 1 BMP, 2 vans:




This article from Kyivpost shows how much wounded come in DAILY from Debaltseve area and how it seems Ukrainian authorities are hiding (or at least not talking about) these numbers.

Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:

Sunday, June 29, 2014

Strategic considerations


My answer:

1.
The Ukrainian army was NOT halted just before it could close the border. It halted AFTER 3-4 companies had moved into position to patrol the borders and the different border crossings. See this report. It is still a hard job, but it is something substantial.
Unfortunately on June 20th some 30 vehicles had been able to slip through the border and these may not be the last either.
In response to the presence of these substantial patrolling forces (pro)Russians shelled the border crossings to pieces. But they have not been able to attack or damage the patrolling companies.
Closing the borders is and stays priority number one! As I understand, during the ceasefire Ukraine is building more and more defensive positions along the border.

2.
Yes it is true that Ukraine lost vision of airspace in the East. It does not mean it already lost CONTROL of airspace, because no Russian jets are operating in Ukrainian airspace (except maybe the June 2nd attack on the administration building & park in Lugansk; see this blog).

3.
Blowing up the railways is hardly damaging to the Ukrainian army, since most of those happened INSIDE rebel territory. This is NOT the area where you are going to transport army units by train, because it will make them easy targets.
The only good reason I can think of, is that the (pro)Russians want to PREVENT CIVILIANS to travel out of the region. They need civilians as human shield!

4.
Yes it is very possible that Russia will intervene when the Ukrainian army gets the upper hand. And yes they may overrun and destroy a lot. When this happens, World War III has started. Nobody in the world can ignore this anymore, whether they like it or not.

Ukraine has a strategic storage of AK-47s of about 500.000 pieces. When all of their population will be armed with these, the Russian army is going to have an impossible task to overrun all of Ukraine even with heavy armor. Putin knows this. He cannot afford to go all out like this. He will try to get away with one little piece at a time. Putin is playing bluff poker.

5.
You cannot allow a burglar to plunder and destroy your house without a fight. If you surrender now, ALL of Ukraine is in trouble. Putin will only stop when the price is too high for him. It is better to die fighting than to watch at the sideline how your country and everything you value gets destroyed.

6.
NATO and the USA have to step in. They HAVE to apply sanctions NOW. If necessary, they have to fight on Ukrainian territory. If they don't want to fight on Ukrainian territory they will have to fight on Estonian territory within a year, or maybe even Polish territory. One day they will have to fight. An aggressor is only stopped when he is being stopped. When he gets away with his aggression, he will continue.
If NATO/USA will do nothing, then Ukraine still has to fight/defend on its own.

7.
The biggest problem of Ukraine is corruption. The police is corrupt. Large parts of the army is corrupt. Soldier die because of traitors. There is no time for games anymore. Corruption is a cancer that infects the whole body. Putin is like a parasite that feeds on this cancer. During these difficult times the cancer has to be cut out. This will always be painful. But when you survive, you have time to heal and you have been able to get rid of the cancer.
During these days it becomes very clear where the cancer is...

8.
The Ukrainian army has been ignored and neglected for a long time. And still the army does not know how to take good care of its soldiers, or even how to feed them. Yet, they are dealing with a very experienced enemy. They will need to learn how to fight/defend against them. This takes time and cannot be done overnight.

9.
The ceasefire makes Ukrainian checkpoints & units great for target practicing. It is pointless and has to stop.

10.
God forbid that we allow another Hitler/Stalin/Napoleon to grow so strong that millions will die again...


Some interesting responses:

Posted by Ukraine@war at 1 comment:

Merkel? What would YOU do when an agressive neighbor has his foot in your door?


@GorseFires had some very good statements lately that are worth a lot more attention:

I gathered them here:












So what do you do when an notoriously aggressive neighbor has already taken your garage, drives in your car and now has it's foot in your door?
You call your aunt Merkel from the police and she says: "It's ok. I just talked to him. He says he only wants to help. He will behave now. We need his gas anyway..."

Think about it... What are you going to do?

Would you build a NEW DOOR in the hallway?
Would you OPEN the door, drink some tea and talk with him?
Would you call somebody else from the police office?


DROP THE CALL WITH MERKEL & KICK HIM OUT & SHUT THE DOOR!
When you're done you may have a stiff conversation with your aunt again about what the freak was going on.


Some more interesting news from @bopanc
Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:

Friday, June 20, 2014

My interpretation of 'the invasion' event

Russia invaded Ukraine with 25-50 vehicles today.
Earlier it had already send three tanks and a GRAD unit.

After the downing of the IL-76 Ukraine vowed to close the borders. It pushed hard on three areas as can be seen on this map:


Blue dotted line = border with Russia
Green line = natural barrier by river
Red dotted line = approximate rebel area
Small blue circles = Army bases

Blue #1 and #2: bases of Ukrainian army

At point #3, the Ukrainian army tried to break through the natural barrier to try to cut of the eastern connection of Slovyansk. No supply and reinforcements means Slovyansk will fall.

At point #4 the army tried to break through the natural barrier to try to secure the borders from the North.

At point #5 they try to recapture the border crossings from the South. Actually they were quite successful at it.

The response from Russia is this:



At red point #1 there were paratroopers drop and an attack towards the border post. This is to cut off army group blue #5. When they are cut off, they will need to surrender or will be destroyed.

Across the yellow line substantial reinforcements entered the area. I suspect the initial group to have been divided into three groups, because the later sightings did not have all the vehicles that were reported to have entered.
The column (or what was left of it) has been seen in Horlivka the last. Three things can happen:

#2 the airfield of Donetsk will be attacked, because they will need airports.
#3 the penetrating Ukrainian froce in the North-West will be countered. This is a very logical thing. It will happen.
#4 Lugansk airport will be captured and the northern army stopped.
#5 the southern border attack force (blue #5) will be cut off, attacked and/or destroyed.

Since the borders are far from closed, Putin will bring in as many forces as needed to repel the advance of the army and to keep control of the borders.
With control of the borders, the entire Russian army might eventually drive in.


BE WARNED...
But... I'm just a guy with an opinion...


UPDATE 21-6:
The air-defense systems near the airfield indeed were attacked last night:
But eventually the Radar installation has been destroyed.
A similar Lugansk radar has been destroyed earlier. See report here. It means Ukraine cannot detect anymore what is coming in or going out.

Posted by Ukraine@war at 1 comment:

Thursday, May 22, 2014

Are the rebels going to retreat or do they get reinforced?

(For UPDATES scroll down.)

The Seversky Donets' river and surrounding areas are a natural barrier. Only on several locations there are bridges. This means it provides safe protection as a route for either a retreat or for reinforcements.


From Slovyansk this route goes to the East to Russia alongside this line.

Along this route there are several activities.

Today a bridge near Pryvillya has been destroyed (yellow marker in the north), limiting the possibilities to cross.


Rubyzhne and Lysachansk are exactly the areas where the route goes through the barrier. Controlling these cities means you either have this route or block it.




Somehow it seems the Ukrainian army has been prepared for this. Because yesterday (21-5-2014) it had already been sending pontoon bridges from Poltava to the region.


These are only 2 APCs and one truck. But they have not been seen before, as far as I know. The next message seems to clarify what is going on. It is about some serious reinforcements...

UPDATE 24-5
One of the bridges in Severodonetsk has been blocked. This seems strange, because this is right ON the route...
An interactive map of this area can be found here.

Also see an earlier report: Are the rebels in Slovyansk preparing a retreat?
Also see: Several Ukrainian checkpoints attach across Donetsk area
Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Are the rebels in Slovyansk preparing a retreat?

Several reported today (20-5) that the rebels may be preparing a retreat.






The Ukrainian army already seems to take some preparations for this upcoming event:


UPDATE 21-5
This makes the possible route of retreat look like this:



According to this article in Russian language the morgue in Kramatorsk holds 50 to 100 dead bodies of rebels. In Slovyansk there would also be more. They suspect the rebels to take those with them on the retreat.


Also look at The Ukrainian army is NOT in control of Slovyansk.
Earlier, Russian commander Strelkov complained about the lack of support too.
Also look at why Putin cannot afford to continue in East Ukraine.
Posted by Ukraine@war at 2 comments:

Monday, May 19, 2014

Putin's gameplan fails without China's backup 19-5

Putin does not recognize the current government in Kiev.
His goal is to frustrate the elections on the 25th of May. If he succeeds he might get Yanukovych back as president.
He does not necessarily want to occupy (all of) Ukraine. But he needs Ukraine to side with Russia and not with Europe.
If he cannot get the West of Ukraine, the East will suffice.

His short term tactics are: create chaos, weaken and blame the interim government. He has done this by making it impossible for local police and government to function. He succeeded very well in this.

For now his goal is to frustrate the elections.


Why has he not been invading the East Ukraine from the start?
Answer: If he can reach his goals as easy as this, why would he pay a higher price?

Putin's overall long term goals are to create a new World Order with Russia as a much more dominant player and America with a minor role.
He will side with China to do this. China also wants to become a geopolitical player.

Russia's gas deal with China should provide for all the money he needs for his economy to keep running AND therefor to keep the war going.

But if this deal with China will be cancelled, there is nothing else for Putin left then to stop what he has been doing!

And now China does not even want to build the Kerch bridge!
This means Putin has lost the ally he needed. He is in serious trouble now. Annexing Crimea, without getting Eastern Ukraine will be a huge disaster for him. Without water, electricity, gas and food from Ukraine, Crimea can not exist. Without a bridge, trade and transport cannot be done efficiently.

This will turn the tide...

Also see: Did China just Checkmate Russia in Ukraine.
Also see: China plans new Silk Route across Ukraine It explains China's original plans for Crimea with Ukraine and why it might not be interested in building the Kerch bridge.

UPDATE 21-5:
Now the BIG QUESTION is: how will this affect the crisis in the Ukraine? Will Putin now have enough confidence to continue his malversations there?

Big question is: will he be able to get the advanced payment from China? If so, he will have the money to proceed. If not, he will have to maintain a low profile.


UPDATE 27-5:
Disturbing Ukraine's election FAILED. Congratulations for Ukraine. This does not mean trouble is over. More troops flood Ukraine than before. See this article. If everything else fails turning East-Ukraine into something like Transdniester will do, for the time being.

Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:
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