Sunday, June 29, 2014

Strategic considerations

My answer:

The Ukrainian army was NOT halted just before it could close the border. It halted AFTER 3-4 companies had moved into position to patrol the borders and the different border crossings. See this report. It is still a hard job, but it is something substantial.
Unfortunately on June 20th some 30 vehicles had been able to slip through the border and these may not be the last either.
In response to the presence of these substantial patrolling forces (pro)Russians shelled the border crossings to pieces. But they have not been able to attack or damage the patrolling companies.
Closing the borders is and stays priority number one! As I understand, during the ceasefire Ukraine is building more and more defensive positions along the border.

Yes it is true that Ukraine lost vision of airspace in the East. It does not mean it already lost CONTROL of airspace, because no Russian jets are operating in Ukrainian airspace (except maybe the June 2nd attack on the administration building & park in Lugansk; see this blog).

Blowing up the railways is hardly damaging to the Ukrainian army, since most of those happened INSIDE rebel territory. This is NOT the area where you are going to transport army units by train, because it will make them easy targets.
The only good reason I can think of, is that the (pro)Russians want to PREVENT CIVILIANS to travel out of the region. They need civilians as human shield!

Yes it is very possible that Russia will intervene when the Ukrainian army gets the upper hand. And yes they may overrun and destroy a lot. When this happens, World War III has started. Nobody in the world can ignore this anymore, whether they like it or not.

Ukraine has a strategic storage of AK-47s of about 500.000 pieces. When all of their population will be armed with these, the Russian army is going to have an impossible task to overrun all of Ukraine even with heavy armor. Putin knows this. He cannot afford to go all out like this. He will try to get away with one little piece at a time. Putin is playing bluff poker.

You cannot allow a burglar to plunder and destroy your house without a fight. If you surrender now, ALL of Ukraine is in trouble. Putin will only stop when the price is too high for him. It is better to die fighting than to watch at the sideline how your country and everything you value gets destroyed.

NATO and the USA have to step in. They HAVE to apply sanctions NOW. If necessary, they have to fight on Ukrainian territory. If they don't want to fight on Ukrainian territory they will have to fight on Estonian territory within a year, or maybe even Polish territory. One day they will have to fight. An aggressor is only stopped when he is being stopped. When he gets away with his aggression, he will continue.
If NATO/USA will do nothing, then Ukraine still has to fight/defend on its own.

The biggest problem of Ukraine is corruption. The police is corrupt. Large parts of the army is corrupt. Soldier die because of traitors. There is no time for games anymore. Corruption is a cancer that infects the whole body. Putin is like a parasite that feeds on this cancer. During these difficult times the cancer has to be cut out. This will always be painful. But when you survive, you have time to heal and you have been able to get rid of the cancer.
During these days it becomes very clear where the cancer is...

The Ukrainian army has been ignored and neglected for a long time. And still the army does not know how to take good care of its soldiers, or even how to feed them. Yet, they are dealing with a very experienced enemy. They will need to learn how to fight/defend against them. This takes time and cannot be done overnight.

The ceasefire makes Ukrainian checkpoints & units great for target practicing. It is pointless and has to stop.

God forbid that we allow another Hitler/Stalin/Napoleon to grow so strong that millions will die again...

Some interesting responses:

1 comment:

  1. Ehi Peter,
    1) not so sure that Ukraine has closed the border. Those 'patrols' you saw were in my opinion simply units relocating to another position. Russia can still send in vehicles whenever it wants. Keeps it to a trickle in order not to make it too obvious.
    2) I reckon it will be surgical strikes by the Russians as the rebels call in air-support when faced with overwhelming armoured attacks. Quick in-out and nobody is any wiser. To explain the high number of destroyed Ukrainian armour, the rebels will say they suddenly mastered the use of anti-tank weapons.
    As for the Luhansk one. It is the one I am especially interested in. The one I wante to write to you about, do you have anymore info?
    3) if as you say those railway bridges are within the area controlled by rebels, then you may be right. The old Stalinist script being followed line by line.
    4) No World War. It did not happen for Georgia, it will not happen for Ukraine. Unfortunately Ukraine is on its own on this one. The only ones who may help (behind the scenes, i.e. with supply of weapons) may be the scandinavian countries and Finland.
    " Ukraine has a strategic storage of AK-47s of about 500.000 pieces".
    Where? Location? Moreover, you need a continuous supply of ammunition otherwise you are stuck. Those AK47/74 will be useless, unless the allies supply ammunition once Ukraine is over-run!
    5) "You cannot allow a burglar to plunder and destroy your house without a fight. If you surrender now, ALL of Ukraine is in trouble. Putin will only stop when the price is too high for him. It is better to die fighting than to watch at the sideline how your country and everything you value gets destroyed"
    Completely agree. Noble words!
    6) US/NATO will not step in. Putin is lucky in that he found an Obama and not a McCain at the White House. As said above, Ukraine is on its own.
    7) "... ..." Again I agree. You are a good preacher.
    8) Again I agree.
    9) Ceasefire, although Poroshenko is risking the anger of his own people he had to extend the ceasefire in order that, IF he wants to go down heavily against the rebels, he can claim he gave them every possibility to lay down weapons, even though it meant losing soldiers. I believe he knows he is risking all his credibility with the Ukrainians given that he had promised to solve the issue within weeks once elected. But I believe that after meeting Merkel and Putin in Normandy he realised that Ukraine is on his own. I believe he realised that Merkel is on the side of Russia, but she can't say it openly. Poroshenko is risking a lot, his country, his future, everything. I don't envy his position.
    10) Again I agree. But Putin is in a much stonger position than the 3 you mentioned, both economically and as regards home-support. Thus much more dangerous!

    As usual, well done.


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