Saturday, July 18, 2015

Donetsk and Avdiivka heavily hit by Russian shelling

Video shows heavy incoming shelling at center of Donetsk:

Another video shows (parts of) the same event:

This is the map of the area with camera positions and approximate impact locations:


Another aftermath video:

That video shows a piece of a shell being picked up:

That has been identified as a tank shell:
But... be careful. That piece could easily have planted there before it was picked up.

This screenshot can better be used to identify the shelltype:

It seems to be a stabilizing fin stuck into the ground.

This may be something that looks like what we are dealing with here:

Source: wikipedia.

And that happens to be the same kind of shell. So it seems likely that these were HE tank shells.

This video shows shelling in Donetsk continues during the night:

Location is here:

Google maps link.

A residential building in Avdiivka has also been hit:

A security camera filmed the incoming shells/explosions:

A screenshot from this video clearly shows where these shells come from:

That's from the South:

That line goes straight to the high apartment buildings near Donetsk Airport that have served as Givi's HQ during the entire battle for Donetsk Airport:

It means they have a good view on thoose buildings in Avdiivka and can see the impacts (or zero them in).
The security camera shows these buildings here:


Russia intensified it's attacks including deliberate targeting of civilian areas (either occupied or not). It is a coordinated attack including Social Media attacks by the St. Petersburg Troll centre.

Of course, as always Russia blames Ukraine. But it may be clear this is Russian instigated shelling.

And we all fear it is the prelude to a new massive summer-offensive.

Friday, July 17, 2015

Russia hijacked MH370 and made it disappear as a distraction from its invasion into Crimea?

In this article aviation expert Jeff Wise says Russia might have hijacked MH370.

The articles says it must have been a 'sophisticated operation' and the Russian could do this:

Russian Airlines Aeroflot has boeing 777 in its fleet, so they have the knowledge of the systems.

These three men could for instance have been Russian Aviation Experts, FSB and/or military agents.

Mr. Wise say he has no idea of what the motive of the Russians could be to make MH370 dissappear:

But the motive is simple: to create a distraction for the world from Russia taking over Crimea.

I remember the moment that MH370 disappeared VERY WELL. It was RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE of Russia invading and taking over Crimea. By the time it became clear that this was a Russian military operation MH370 disappeared.
My thoughts at that time where like this: "Oh no!!!! Now the world has something else to focus on. They will forget about Russia invading Crimea. How is it possible that this happens at the worst time possible."

After some time, when details became clear, I thought: "To make an airplane disappear without a trace... that is not a terrorist act, it is not a pilot going bongus. You need to know how to put out a transponder... you need to know how and where to avoid normal radar... This is a very precise operation. It is a military operation! Russia might have made the airplane disappear to create a distraction for the world, because the world was ALL OVER Crimea right than and there.

I never really published my thoughts on this, knowing that the idea alone is too crazy for some people.
But when Russia shot down MH17, I could not help but mention it, like this (in this article):

In a podcast on July 24th 2014 Eliot Higgins (we hardly knew each other back then) praised my analysis on finding the MH17 missile launch location, but thought my idea of Russians taking down MH370 was far off :-).

Now, one year after MH17 I wanted to explain myself. Fortunately Jeff Wise, an authority, published his ideas already. That saved me a lot of work.

So here you are... this is the (conspiracy) theory that has not had enough attention and investigation so far: Russia hijacked MH370 and made it disappear as a distraction from its invasion into Crimea.

If this is true, it may shed more light on the motive to shoot down MH17 too! Russia got away with making MH370 disappear BIG TIME. So why not do it again?
One day before MH17 was shot down, it became VERY CLEAR to the world that RUSSIA was attacking Ukraine ACROSS the border, because some Russian boy filmed and published GRAD rocket attacks near Gukovo:

Based on those videos we and others could determine from where and in what direction they were shooting. See this blog.
This was HARD evidence! Proof! And it was something that should be avoided to draw the attention of the world AT ALL COSTS. Because it proved Russia's involvement. And at that moment the world was still thinking it was some civil war in Donbas (some still think it is up until today).

Putin needed a distraction...
Why not shoot down a passenger plane? And blame Ukraine for it? Or if that fails, blame 'the separatists'. That will keep them busy for a loooong time. Meanwhile we can just keep destroying Ukraines army from Russian soil...
They got away with the first one. They might get away with this one too. In fact... one year after MH17, there are little to NO consequences at all for those involved in bringing down MH17. They do get away with it too... And as long as Putin will wage war... he will be immune.

A more detailed article about Jeff Wise's theory can be found here where he even suggest where the plane might be:

This is his personal blog about it.

Google maps link to Yubileyniy Aerodrome.

This Daily Beast article argues that MH370 might not have fallen into the ocean, but might be on land:

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Mukacheve: Right Sector must have been lured into a trap

In this blog I synchronised and analysed the several footage of the Right Sector incident in front of Antares Health Club.

The quick impression that the police-footage gives, is that RS must have shot a man, they take the body and drive off when a firefight happens north of the city.

But A LOT of questions remain, such as:

  • why did the police mute all the audio?
  • why did the police not include the earlier shots captured on security camera?
  • why did a man INSIDE Antares ask some soldiers in to get the body?
  • why did they bring the body back again?
  • why does the police video not show they brought it back again?
CLEARLY, the police video was edited to show only parts of the events and as such, to give a WRONG impression!

Furthermore, the fact that a lot of local thugs happened to be around with machine-guns cooperating with the police does not help to convince their view. As everywhere in Ukraine, old-style-Yanukovich-police is as corrupt as can be. In a border-town as Mukacheve this won't be different.

Another very strange thing is this:

A fortification with sandbags has been built near the roadblock that had been setup for RS:

It is one thing to quickly block the road with some cars on the route that you think RS will take. But it is another thing to build something like a pillbox. That needs time and thus (a lot of) planning ahead.

So now here I will present here a scenario that DOES answer most of the questions. And that scenario is this: Right Sector was setup in advance to walk into a trap.

Right Sector was setup
RS was invited to the Health Club to talk with local businessman and MP Mykhailo Lanyo. It means they knew long before that they were coming and of course... they would not come unarmed to a place like that.

The RS base is somewhere in the north. That means that the route to Antares Health club, must have been like this:

The roadblock with the sandbags is NOT on this route. It means this could have been build already without RS noticing it on the way to Antares.

The security footage shows that a van blocks the entrance to the Health Club right from the start:

It shows they knew they were coming and they were never meant to enter the gates even if they wanted to, even though there is a lot of parking place:

Strategically positioned cameras
Next thing is that the police is filming the RS area from two sides from a safe distance.
This screenshot tells us where the first camera position is:

A wall can be seen which left side almost coincides with the side of the building behind it:

It means we can draw a line in Google Earth through these two sides and the cameraman must be on this line (the green line):

Since the cameraman is on the left side of the road and the cars pass him at the right side, he must be at the position of the icon, which is some 125 meters away from the RS positions.

This screenshot helps determine the position from the other cameraman:

The black stroke on the upper side means he is not filming from the open, but likely films from inside a car. And thus likely the car that followed RS to the roadblock/ambush position too. 
The white car on the right side can be easily positioned on the map. At quite some distance there is another white car at the left side and yet another in front of that one.
So the second cameraman must be approximately here:

What we have here is two strategically positioned and hidden cameramen that can film RS from both sides. And they film the area even BEFORE the police officially arrives (after 50 minutes).
It means this was setup and they meant to film everything.

Who shot the guard and from where?
On the security footage it can not be seen that anybody from RS entered the gates, yet the security guard that got heavily wounded was shot BEHIND the gates!

At 36:11 the guard (black shorts, brown shirt with sleeves and wearing a cap) can be seen at the gate:

A few seconds later at 36:19 he can be seen walking to the left:

This is the last time we see him before he got shot.

When the soldier go get his body at 44:57, they also walk to this same side:

It means the guard must have been shot somewhere in this purple area:

At 39:46 people can be seen at the gate, looking to the left, getting scared and then walking away:

It means a shot must have been fired at that time and something was going on on the left side. Unfortunately we don't have footage from that moment. But for sure we can tell the shot did not come from RS soldiers from the right side, because we can see them on the security video and nothing happens st that time on that side.

So the shot likely came somewhere from the left side. But how could the guard have been shot behind the wall by RS?

This Yandex streetview shows that there is a small fence in the wall on the left side:

This screenshot shows that a RS soldier is peeking through this fence with his gun ready:

But this is at the moment his mates pick up the body from there.
And the people who are looking at the left when the shot was fired could not see him, so they did not look at this position.
Something was going on here in the blue area (visible to the people at the gate):

So, IF some RS soldier shot the guard, it must have happened something like this:

It means he was in full sight, everybody was looking at him and he decided to shoot/kill the guard through the fence.

Another option is that the thing that was going on in the blue area was just meant as a distraction for all. And meanwhile, while most people were looking somewhere else, the guard was killed from WITHIN the Antares perimeter.

A third (theoretical) option might be that a sniper killed the guard in an attempt to frame RS. If so, it should have fired in the same direction as a RS soldier might be pointing at some moment and through the fence, like this:

In that case everybody would be looking at the soldier and the would THINK he shot the shot.

On the map possible sniper positions could be here (between the green lines):

1. In between the trees. Perfect spot. Nobody can see you. But difficult to tell if you can really shoot through the fence from there.

2. From behind the building. Exposed position. Anybody, including the RS soldiers could see him. On the other hand it is a quite safe position because one can immediately retreat behind the building again and we know that other armed men arrived moments later.

3. From the tower:
For sure from the top of this tower one could look (and shoot) into the perimeter of Antares. The question is how close to the road/wall. Almost certain the RS soldiers could not see this (because in Streetview we can not see the tower from there)
On the other hand a sniper would be tremendously exposed and could be easily spotted from other locations in the neighbourhood.

4. From behind the wall. It's pretty safe, there is a small risk of getting spotted by RS and it would be easy to hide or retreat. But it is not certain if a shot could be taken through the fence from here. Maybe the building blocks the view, maybe there is a small view.

It seems to me that the first position in between the trees (IF it would be possible to shoot through the fence from there) would be perfect. Safe distance, can't be spotted, easy to hide and retreat.

Why did RS take the body?
It is VERY CLEAR that the man in the white cloths INVITED RS into the Antares perimeter for help (at 44:53):

Moments later they drag the body into the car, so this man must have asked them to take the body!!!

I repeat: the man in white cloths must have ASKED RS to take the body. The BIG question is: why did they give in to this request? Did the man ask/press them to take him to the hospital? But why not let one of their own drive him to the hospital?
Moments later they bring him back again when an ambulances arrive.

The big problem is, that the hidden cameramen filmed all and it looks really bad on video. But the police video has been edited to emphasize this aspect by freezing the frames and going to black and back again several times.

The car blocking the way back
At 49:36 a car is driven across the road into the camera view to block the route back:

Simultaneously the ambulance that arrived at the other side (and potentially blocking the way there) turns and drives away again (without taking any wounded).

There can only be one explanation for this. They WANTED RS to drive forward and not turn around and go back.
Because they WANTED RS to take the northern road and thus passing the roadblock, because they wanted to ambush/corner them there

This is the shortest route back into the mountains according to Google Maps:

But if they would drive like this, they would not pass the roadblock. And as this screenshot shows, there is no roadblock at the crossing itself:

In order to cross the roadblock they had to drive like this:

A ten minutes drive towards that roadblock is enough to put some cars across the road. But it is NOT enough to build fortifications with sandbags as were present there.
This means RS must have been FORCED to take this route and it was planned long before that there would be a confrontation there. 

There are a lot of weird things going on. Most of them can be very well explained if we consider a scenario where RS had been setup, framed and cornered/attacked at the roadblock.
Would 'they' kill a guard (of their own) for this?

Sure 'they' would.
Remember the scenario at Slavyansk where an blockpost was attacked in the middle of the night and a clean 'Yarosh-card' was found and a completely burned car. Some locals died there, but it was a setup aimed to get the Slavyansk locals at their side and ready to defend their city with force. It is what Girkin/Strelkov called 'I started the war in Donbas' and he used these dirty trick for it. Nevertheless, even though a lot of locals bought this, the world did not. In order to convince the world 'they' can not do the same trick again. It has to be something more sophisticated and not so easy to trace down. That's why this time 'they' used REAL RS soldiers instead of imaginary ones.
'They' filmed all, but only published the parts that compromise RS and put them in a bad light.
At Maidan snipers killed a hundred civilians.
In Odessa Russian provocateurs protected by corrupted police setup hooligans to attack the administration building, killing a lot of pro-russians.
One guard in Mukacheve (innocent or not) means nothing for these people.

Sure... RS has been stupid enough to take the bait.
Sure... it is not good to have some sort of autonomous paramilitary groups roaming the country and shooting around with guns. They have fallen in the trap that was setup for them.

And who are 'they'?
Well.. who benefits here?
RS is the core of the Ukrainian volunteers who defend the country at the frontlines. The most patriotic groups. Without them Putin would have its corridor to Crimea already. To discredit RS is EXACTLY what Putin would like to see.

Furthermore: internal conflict between the government and RS benefits Putin.

And: conflict at the doorstep of Europe (instead of far away Donbas) benefits Putin. It means some European politicians will hesitate to either support Ukraine or to allow them into the EU. So it benefits Putin.

Of course local gangsters and corrupt police might benefit too and therefor eagerly cooperate.

One more thing: the Russian Troll Factory has been extremely busy with this issue. They put a lot of oil on the fire. We heard stories that a well known DNR fighter was killed there. That RS used a Polish car (the one with the machinegun on it) that was a gift from Poland to the volunteers at the front, even the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs published a video that RS had kidnapped a young boy...
Just the fact that the Russian Troll Factory released so many fake story, shows who is behind it.

Alternative scenario
A local RS group has gone mad, shoot a local mafia guard, drag his body on the street, on second thought throw it back in the garden and when they try to get away they shoot at everything that moves.

Your choice what you think is the truth.

Monday, July 13, 2015

Analysing the Mukacheve footage

A good general timeline of events can be found here:
This blog analyses some aspects in more detail.

Security cameras had recorded the arrival of Right Sector at Antares Health club, Mukacheve.
Also the police released footage from that scene.

All these shots have been put together in synchronised order:

At 1:10 in the CCTV footage the cars start arriving.
At 2:35 the men leave the cars.

For a long time nothing seems to happen. Soldiers walk up and down the road, but they can never be seen entering the gate.

At 39:47 six men at the gate look to the left and got scared (must be first moment shots were fired):

At 44:24 a soldier walks towards the gate and talks with a man who points his arm to the left.

At 44:53 a second soldier walks fast towards the gates and the two soldiers enter the gate, with the other man directing them.

At this point the police footage starts.

At 45:43 the two soldiers can be seen dragging a body outside the gate.

At 46:33 they put it in the car.
At 48:31 they indicate that they want to leave or something. A smoke grenade can already be seen laying on the ground:

At 48:46 they get the body out of the car again!

At 48:50 a white car (what seems to be an ambulance drives through the camera view):

Note the Ukrainian flag in the middle.

At 48:58 the soldiers can be seen dragging the body into the gate again.

At 49:09 they walk back.
At 49:19 'local thugs' arrive with machine guns and body armor:

At 49:30 an ambulance can be seen driving away on the OTHER side:

Note the Ukrainian flag in the middle. Yet, the security footage never shows an ambulance driving through the view.

At 49:37 they park a car so it blocks the road.

At 49:41 warning shots are fired into the air by a soldier (this is the ONLY place where audio is available!):

At 50:20 a soldier starts to light the smoke grenade:

At 50:35 he runs away from it.
At 50:49 the smoke appears:

At 51:11 the last car can be seen driving away:

There is never panic, neither is there any real shootout here, but there are many questions

  • What was going on anyway? The soldiers did not seem to enter the Health Club. Where they just waiting for someone to come out?
  • Why did the police not show the footage from the first shots?
  • How did the bodyguard get hurt and who did that? He got hurt INSIDE the gates and no soldiers were seen entering the gates.
  • Why did the police mute all the audio, except for that little moment where Right Sector fires warning shots when a car blocks the road?
  • Why did RS take a body of the other side? Why not let them take there own dead/wounded?
  • Why did they bring the body back again?

Clearly a man INSIDE the gates asks the soldiers to take the body. HE directs them. So they take the body. But they are quite rude with it.
Maybe next thing is they saw an ambulance arriving and decided to bring him back again.

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