Why RUSSIA shot down MH17 and not 'local separatists'

First of all: the war in East-Ukraine is a Russian operation with the help of some local recruits. See this blog. But apart from that, the BUK did not operate alone...

The SA-11 GADFLY BUK-system consists of four components:

1. the command and control (C&C)
2. the Snow Drift surveillance radar, can also operate as a C&C
3. the launcher (Transport Erector Launcher And Radar, or TELAR). It also has some radar capabilities.
4. the loader (Loader Launcher Vehicle: LLV). It transports, loads and can fire missiles, but has no radar.

You can see each of them here:

Wikipedia about BUK.

C2 Snow Drift Radar
The Snow Drift Radar has an effective range of 85 kms. It can communicate with and control up to six TELs/LLVs and as such launch and direct the missiles to the target. The other units must be in range of max 40-50 kms, but at this range weather and geographical conditions or jamming may play a bigger role, so a more effective and reliable range would be 20-30 kms between the different units.

TELAR
The TELAR has the ability to launch independently from a C&C. It has a semi-active FIRE DOME radar. The radar sends a signal. The reflection of this signal is captured and based on the time, angle, etcetera, the height, range, speed and behavior of the plane is calculated. These are then send to the rocket. The rocket itself does not have radar.
The Fire Dome radar has a range of 32 kms, the same as the missile range.
The TELAR also has an electro-optical guidance system, which is only being used when the the radar is out of use because of jamming for instance.

LLV
The launcher has four missiles and since these missiles cannot be loaded into the system manually, a separate loader vehicle with a crane can both transport missiles, load them unto the launcher, or even shoot them when controlled by a C&C.

Every radar has a friend-or-foe recognition system (IFF).

Here you can see how the four components are working together:

Question: Does Russia have these units deployed along the border with Ukraine?
Answer: well of course!! They also used one two days earlier...

AN-26 brought down by BUK two days earlier

Two days prior Russia had been bringing down a Ukrainian AN-26 transport aircraft with a BUK missile. That was the first time they used a BUK in the war with Ukraine.
In this blog I calculated where the BUK must have been located that fired that missile.

Drawn on a map it looks like this:

Dotted blue = border

Light blue = approximate front line at July 17th.

Explosion icon = crash site AN-26
Red circle = 32 km missile range

Another thing is that we know from all kinds of sources that Russia has units all along the border with Ukraine and is even ATTACKING Ukraine across the border.

All red dots on this map are CONFIRMED locations of Russian units and/or attacks:

Did we spot and locate any of the BUK units alongside the border?

No, but we know that they are there, because:

1. the AN-26 was shot down with a BUK earlier. 
2. this soldier wanted to be funny and posted a photo of himself with some BUK units on the background, pretending it was the BUK that shot down MH17:
   
   
3. A couple of days later they shot down two SU-25 with BUK-missiles from Russisan territory (see below)

What would be good locations to position BUKs along the border?
You only need three more TELARs to cover ALL of the border where fighting is going on, like this:

 The most important location is this one:

Because it covers the route of Ukrainian aircrafts to the units at the border. And Russia was and still is trying to cut off these Ukrainian units at that particular location.
This is the best spot to put a radar unit:

Yellow area = 85 kilometer operational range of Snow Drift Radar.

One radar unit at this location covers almost ALL the Russian occupied area. Except for the Western most part. This is where they had positioned a Strela-10 anti-air unit with 5 km range:

The BUK that brought down MH17
In the night and morning of July 16th to 17th Russia drove one BUK-M1 all the way into Ukraine like this yellow route (see this blog):

Wow!! What a detour! We know from the leaked telephone calls that they TRIED to bring in TWO, but only one made it. So it was a VERY risky operation.
We also know from these phone calls that the BUK came WITH A CREW.

And what do they do? They POSITION this unit WITHIN the operational communication range of a radar unit across the Russian border:

It means the BUK COULD easily connect with a radar unit there. Then the next question is: why should it NOT connect?

Another question is: WHY would they drive the BUK all the way WITHIN operational range of a radar unit, while they could easily have a BUK on Russian territory with approximately the SAME effective coverage of Ukrainian area along the border?
If the BUK was intended for 'offline' use, why drive it within range? Why not position it in Donetsk, so there is a lot more area to cover with air-defense? Like this:

The answer is simple: OF COURSE they wanted to connect with the radar and command and control located in Russia...

Another thing
We know that in the week after MH17 Russia shot down two SU-25 near Snizhne with a BUK located in Russia approximately on that exact forward position:

Two Ukrainian Su-25 shot down by missiles launched from #Russia http://t.co/Rh0X6e4iG0
— Kyiv Post (@KyivPost) July 23, 2014

Or read this article.
And in this video the Russian terrorists search for the pilots:

RU reportage how they downed today #Ukraine SU-25 "to teach you not to fly", they will proceed with chasing UA pilot https://t.co/wZyRN4PsZ6
— Ukraine Reporter (@StateOfUkraine) July 23, 2014

So it is clear the BUK sytem is on Russian soil in that area.


Then we have to ask: why would they put a BUK within operational range of a radar unit on Russian soil, while there is little to no strategic advantage to having a BUK next to the radar on Russian soil?

The logical answer is: to OBSCURE the fact that it's RUSSIA being at war with Ukraine and to PRETEND that it is ‘the rebels’ or ‘the separatists’. They have been sending messages out of capturing a Ukrainian BUK for days and weeks, just so they could bring one BUK in from Russia without alarming the world too much. They have been doing this with EVERYTHING they brought in: ALL has been ‘captured’, so they say. It’s a disguise.

So this BUK would be a ‘captured separatists BUK’, but it could be put in range with the C&C and connect with it for effective operation.


Did the C&C know it was a civilian plane?
Answer: yes they did. They have been located there for weeks already, monitoring the skies. Civilian airplanes had been crossing over daily. It was safe, because they fly at an altitude where military planes do not operate.
Also they can check the IFF of airplanes and as such identify a plane.


If so: did they deliberately shoot down a civilian airplane?
Answer: yes, they must have known.

Here is the map again, now with path and direction of MH17 and its crash site:

The eye-icon might be the location of the spotter on a high building in Horlivka who called that he had seen a plane. It is a common practice to put such spotters at the end of the radar range, to get early warnings/confirmations.


But why would the Russians want to bring down a civilian plane?

Why do these people kill and torture people? Why do they execute people who fight for them when they get caught looting? Why do they intentionally target residential areas with the goal to cause civilian casualties?

For two reasons: to be able to get awful dramatic footage for Russian TV and next to be able to blame Ukraine for it.
Sometimes they fail to hide that THEY are actually doing it. In that case, the message is: get out of our way, move aside, don’t bother us, or we will kill you. They don’t want civilians to harass them or tell the Ukrainiana army their positions and things like that. So they threaten and they kill to make people obedient and not bother them.


But how does that explain them shooting down an airliner?
They want a clear sky. They want to be able to shoot down everything that flies in the sky. AND they want to do this from Russian territory, so their units cannot be counterattacked. Of course they cannot shoot down an airliner from Russian territory. So they drove one into Ukraine, shot it down, drove it back. The INTENTION was to blame Ukraine for it as they do with everything. And even when that would fail, it would be very hard or impossible to prove the connection with the C&C across the border.


Was it a mistake that they shot MH17 down?
Did it change anything for them? Did they show respect for the innocent dead? Did they want to have a ceasefire for three days so the dead could be removed safely? Or for the responsible ‘rebels’ to be brought to justice?
No, they did everything to obscure, to remove evidence, to slow down, to remove photos and videos from cellphones from victims, etcetera, in order to make it as difficult as possible to find out the truth.
They don't care about these (civilian) deaths. It is as simple as that.

They got away with ALL the other incidents they caused. It looks like they get away with this one too...


Now they have the clear sky they want. NOW they can shoot down everything that flies by without thinking and from safe RUSSIAN territory.

Summary and conclusion
The TELAR/BUK that shot down MH17 was deliberately driven into Ukraine to a location within range of a Command and Control Radar unit on Russian territory.
There was hardly any strategical gain compared to having a BUK on Russian territory.
The goal to have such a complicated and dangerous operation of bringing the BUK into Ukraine was to OBSCURE the fact that it would be operated by Russians.
The BUK came WITH a crew.
The C&C in Russia had been monitoring the skies for weeks already, if not for months. They have seen civilian planes all the time.
They got an early warning by a spotter.
They knew MH17 was a civilian plane.
Still they gave the order to bring it down.

It does not mean EVERYBODY knew this. In fact NOBODY local knew about it. The locals ALL thought and where told it was a AN-26, until they found out. Only the few people in the C&C and maybe the crew in the TELAR itself knew about it. These people operate in strict discipline and doctrine. They had orders and ask no questions.



In Russian language other people have come to the same conclusion too:

@djp3tros for example: http://t.co/Urt0oYOgcN http://t.co/UVXKIi2Udw and http://t.co/jmyZlOorU3
— Peter Johnson (@alcebaid) August 6, 2014

GRAPHIC Warcrime: POW tortured and killed by Russian terrorists?

On July 31st there was an attack by Ukraine on the city of Shakhtersk. Several Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and others had been captured. The Russian terrorists filmed the aftermath and their 'interrogation' of the POWs. As such they committed several war crimes.
This is the story of Andrey.

WARNING: the images are VERY GRAPHIC.

This is a photo of a Ukrainian soldier, reported to be dead on this site:

He was reported to have died the next day, August 1st.

The problem is, that this boy can be seen alive on July 31st as a POW:

He is also in this video (recorded on July 31st, published Aug 2nd):



The video consists of three main parts.

First part
First he is sitting with his comrade near a fallen tree while they interrogate him.

The wound/dirt on his nose is one big spot:

Notice the quite big wound or spot of dirt on his chin.

Second part
From 2:28 he is filmed sitting alone next to a truck or BTR but WITHOUT the blue striped shirt!

Notice that (a piece of his) his blue striped shirt is on the ground. But he also has a little string of his shirt attached to the uniform on his left arm:

The wound on his nose is different than in the first part:

It is smaller now:

From 3:55 in the second part, he is filmed from the other side. The left and right sides are cut away from the video, because they might be revealing too much.

It can clearly be seen that his left side is red on several spots:

(Notice the garages in the shot above for possible geolocation)

The wound on his nose is open. There is no skin on it.
Also notice how his sleeve is hanging OVER his naked shoulder now...

He also has dirt in his right eye that can not be seen before and he looks dizzy out of his eyes:

These are all signs that they hit him hard in his face.

They even torture him right in the video more than once:

This can easily be done by pushing/touching his wounds.
Also they say in words that they hurt him to make him speak.

Third part
From 5:26 is the third part of the video where he is inside a dark building, pretending to be something like a hospital, where he is cleaned.

In this screenshot it can be seen that he has some kind of white bandage over his right foot:

Also in this frame the 'bandage' can be seen:

Notice how he has a reddish spot on his belly on his left thigh:

Here that same spot can be seen:

It is rather small.

Here a little part of the spot on his chin can be seen (there is no better frame to show it):

This screenshot is taken BEFORE the woman cleans his face in the video. It is turned 180 degrees for better comparison:

Notice how his right cheek is NOT all red as in the second part of the video.

Now the woman cleans his head:

This is the best frame that shows his chin after cleaning:

No big spot anymore.

A shot of his feet. His right foot is wounded and after removing his pants, he got some new bandage on it:

From a different angle:

This is new bandage, because it does not look similar as when he still had his pants on.


The (dead) person is the same as in the video
These are the arguments that show that the (dead) person in the photo is the same as the (tortured) boy in the video:

1. Their face profiles are exactly the same.
This is a screenshot from the video where he has his head in a similar position as on the photo.

His hair is the same, his haircut, his ears match exactly, his nose, his eyebrows, his cheeks. Even the expression on his face is quite similar. Only the shadows are different in these two photos.

2. Both are wearing the same cloths.
For instance, notice the pocket on his left sleeve.

Or look at this photo:

The pattern of his pants on his right leg with dark stains is very similar/the same.

Also notice that not all soldiers wear the same uniform, because his comrade has a very different one.

3. The dead person has white bandage on his right foot.

4. The hands are alike. See photo above and below.

5. The location in the second part of the video and on the photo are EXACTLY the same.
Here is a composition with various items from the video connected to the photo:

To sum it up:

• part of the torn apart shirt lies EXACTLY the same in the photo as in the video.
• there are leaves lying around the area, some in the same position, but not all.
• there are cigarette butts lying around the area. Some of them can even be matches exactly between video and photo.
• he is lying/sitting on sand with grass behind him.
• a stone between the butts can be matched.

The fact that not all loose items like cigarette butts and leaves are exactly on the same spot is logical. Some may have moved while the boy was killed.

This photo from the boys comrade gives another look of the scene:

The boy can be seen here too, still alive, without shirt and with his interrogators/torturers/attackers around him on the left side.

Now when we look at the photo again:

We can see a lot of blood and possibly a gunshot wound in his left thigh. Also there is a lot of blood on his shirt. Remember the screenshots when he was in the hospital, where only a very small dark spot could be seen on his thigh.

Andrey used for Odessa hate Propaganda
Now there even is another video of Andrey laying in bed while he is (pressed to) asking his mother for help. He says he is in a hospital in Donetsk, but he might of course be forced to say that.



This video is published on 3rd of August, but it is a copy of this video, published together with the first one on August 2nd, but reported to be from August 1st.

Notice how he has a big spot on his nose as well as on his chin, indicating either that it was recorded BEFORE the other video in the hospital (in a different room), or indeed one day later, when the wound could have closed again.
Also he does not appear to have a beaten up face as in the second part of the first video.

The text in red on the video says he is the boy who set fire in Odessa! They wrongly used the name Ivan Ponasyuk instead of his real name Andrey Ponasyuk.

This is the video Russian propaganda uses to show that he set fire in Odessa:



This clearly is NOT the same guy. This guy has a small, thin nose and big ears.

Here is a propaganda site blaming him for the Odessa fire: http://etoonda.livejournal.com/450712.html


UPDATE 4-8
Yet ANOTHER video appeared of Andrey in a hospital (August 3rd):

This time he has a tube in his nose and lies again on another bed. In the first part of this video it looks like he has to read something out loud. The message is that their are no evil Russian terrorists, only peaceful citizens. Yeah right...
He is also asked if he had anything to do with Odessa, which he denies.
Then a large part is blackened, instead of cut out. Obviously not 'suitable' for the public.
In the third part he calls his girlfriend on the phone and he says everything is alright. Her voice can even be heard on the phone when you set the volume really high.

His overall condition seems to be very bad. He does not have clear eyes and talking is not easy for him.


UPDATE 7-8
New photos were found that reveal relevant details. The photos were taken and published on July 31st by the news agency that took the photos, but they were not spread on social media. The photos can be found here. The most important ones are these two:

This photo shows that Andrey is severely wounded on his left upper leg/buttock:

His trousers are torn open. This corresponds with the 'dead photo' and this second one:

The wounds are not only on his buttock, but also on his side.
On this photo he is in a very similar position as on the 'dead photo', but obviously still alive.

What's most revealing about these photos is the time they are taken.

The photos near the fallen tree are taken between 19:30 and 19:37.
The photos of his comrade near the truck are taken between 19:58 and 20:05
The 'dead photo' was taken at 20:21:34.
The 'new' rising-his-head photo was taken 20:22:43.
(These times may be Moscow times set on the camera, so the events took place one hour earlier local time.)

This means three things:

1. Andrey was not dead on the 'dead photo'.
2. He had the wounds on his left side from the start, so they are likely to be battle injuries and not inflicted by torture.
3. There are 20 minutes between the first location and the second, not enough to relocate twice and record the 'hospital scenes' in between.

Second part of video taken AFTER third part?
The possibility that the hospital scenes might have been recorded BEFORE the 2nd part, can be ruled out now. There was not enough time for it.
Yet, he must have already been cleaned BEFORE they recorded the 'cleaning video', since he did not have all the blood on his thigh as in the first photos. The 'cleaning video' was more a reenactment for promotional purposes...


Reconstruction of events

1. The boy was injured during a battle and captured and as such a Prisoner Of War together with another soldier (there was a third one filmed too, but he is not in this blog).
2. They interrogated him while he was near a fallen tree and recorded it on video as well as some photos were taken.
3. They brought him to another location, where they tore his shirt from his body and interrogated him further.
4. The camera was stopped and he was severely beaten in his face, ripping open his nose wound or even pulling of more skin from his nose.
5. Then he was filmed from the other side and even tortured with the camera on. This could easily have been done by touching/moving/twisting his injured foot.
6. After they were done and he was physically so exhausted that he could not sit straight and was laying on the ground, two more photos were taken of him, in which he appeared dead in the first one and raised his head a bit in the second one.
7. Eventually he was taken to some sort of hospital, where he was taken care of and cleaned. 
8. The next day Aug 1st a video was recorded with a reenactment of the cleaning for promotional purposes.
9. On August 2nd another video was published, were he was pressed to ask for his mothers help and to say that he was in Donetsk hospital. 
10. This video was picked up by Russian Propagandists to make a hate video and blame him for the Odessa fire.
11. On August 4th a third 'hospital video' was recorded in a bit different setting where he was also asking about Odessa. He seems to be reading from paper to tell that there are no Russians in Donbas. His overall condition does not look very well.

Additional info

In this video his comrade was interrogated/recorded with the truck and people around it on the background (upper right corner):

Screenshot from the video:

Here is how this screenshot connects with the photo we have seen earlier:

Yellow arrow = Andrey

It means Andrey must have been filmed on the background here.


WHERE IS ANDREY NOW?
Obviously Andrey was not killed on July 31st or August 1st. But that does not mean he is safe.

Even if he is in a hospital in Donetsk, Russian terrorists can not be trusted! They may claim one day that 'he died from his wounds in the hospital'. Like this guy for instance:

Who guarantees that he was not killed on the operation table or just not being taken care of properly?

Russian chief in Ukraine Igor Bezler aka Demon: "We shoot them (volunteer POW) on the spot" http://t.co/4IsiSxvLBS pic.twitter.com/rLDyClpUqZ
— djp3tros (@djp3tros) July 29, 2014

The best thing the Russian terrorists can do to proof that he is still alive and they do not do harm him further, is to RELEASE HIM and HAND HIM OVER to Ukrainian authorities and his family!

SEND ANDREY HOME!

UPDATE 12-8

A video (again from icorpus.ru; the same publisher that published the war crime videos) appeared with an exchange of prisoners including the mother of Andrey:


Some screenshots:

Andrey's comrade in a much better condition:

A fourth POW and near the door, the third POW who had to drag his dead comrades and bury them:

Andrey definitely seems to be in a better shape. Although we still don't have any confirmation from the Ukrainian side (there is always a chance that this exchange has been staged) it appears that Andrey and the other POWs are well.
(Ironically/sarcastically the commentator in the video says that 'they treated the POWs according to the Geneva convention, but the Ukrainians treated the POWs very bad...' yup, right!)

I want to believe that our joint efforts to make all this public, have contributed to their release... :D.




Also see @RobPulseNews extensive page about Andrey and warcrimes with two other POWs. This third POW was forced to bury dead Ukrainians alongside a road, so he might have been forced to bury Andrey like this too.

Also see this blog, where a wounded Ukrainian soldier is filmed while he is dying and only gets some water.



If you have any additional information or thoughts, please let me know. I would especially like to know the location where this happened.



Here is some more info about Andrey:

His VK-page has been deleted now: https://vk.com/id23976359.
UPDATE 7-8: his VK-page is hidden now!

A screenshot can be found here:

To the trolls: This is NOT a Hitler-salute!!! His fingers are spread out and it is his LEFT arm up.