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Wednesday, July 23, 2014

CONFIRMED the BUK that shot down MH17 has indeed been in Donetsk

@sergeiyakovlev gives me some very valuable information and translation. Read his tweets to me:
It is very important to note that these tweets are done BEFORE the crash. It means they could not have been fabricated!







Besides this non fabricated eye-witness report, we have a leaked phonecall from the driver to his commander.











What Sergei probably did not know, but what I figured out in an earlier blog, is that Vostok batallion has it's residence in that area in an abandoned mine. It means 'motel' can also be a codename for 'the place where we stay'.

In this map we can see all this information together:


The BUK is parked on a loader on the left side at the start of the route. The real motel is just at the corner. The red line is the street before which he has to stop. The yellow circle indicates the abandoned mine, which is Vostoks hideout.

Basically this means that EVERYTHING MAKES SENSE. The driver arrives in Donetsk, parks the loader, somebody sees it, tweets about it, driver does not know final destination is, calls to find out, he has to drive to the hideout to pick up some more guys from Vostok and then move on to Pervomaiskoe:
On the route to Pervomaiskoe the transport has been photographed and recorded several times, which confirms the authenticity of the phone calls.

Conclusion:
Because all the details fit and the eye-witness report could not have been fabricated, we can consider it CONFIRMED that the BUK was in Donetsk on the transport, even though we don't have photos from it.


Also see the entire route that the BUK traveled into Ukraine
Also see: how the Russians took down MH17
Also see: satellite images reveal how the BUK has been driving near the launch location
Also see: EXIF data of missile launch photo confirmed
Also see: quick update on the military situation in East-Ukraine



If you see errors or have additional info, please let me know.
Posted by Ukraine@war at 1 comment:

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Quick update on military situation in East-Ukraine July 22nd

MilitaryMaps is a Russian Propaganda facebook application that tries to keeps track of Ukrainian units and only gives very limited information about Russian units. Yet their maps are sometimes useful.

This is the main layout at the moment:


Red line = Russian border
Blue line = approximate front line
Blue circle = Lugansk airport in Ukrainian control
Explosion icon = crash site MH17

Ukraine has been trying to close the border with Russia, because Russia was bringing in massive amounts of armor, weapons and soldiers. See for instance this blog.
This has only partly been succesful. In the most Eastern border crossing near Izvarino, the Ukrainians had not been able to close the gap. 
The yellow line in the next map is the supply line through which all the reinforcements entered Ukraine from Russian territory:


The two red arrows show that Ukraine is making a big move now to cut of this line supply line that runs towards the city of Donetsk (far South-West).

In the Northern part it looks like this:


The yellow dotted line shows the previous frontline and thus the area that has been freed now. Even though the cities are heavily damaged, the people can now rebuild them and restore there lives in freedom and without fighting.
The dotted blue line is still in Russian terrorist control, but impossible for them to keep and soon Ukraine will free those areas as well. It is a matter of days.

Now that their main supply line is cut off, the Russians try to keep open another one:


Dotted yellow line = current supply line

The middle red arrow shows how they try to cut of the Ukrainian forces that patrol the border and how they defend their current supply line.
The red arrow in the East shows how Russia tries to push back the Ukrainian units that tried to close the border.
The smaller red arrows show how the Russian army attacks Ukraine from Russian territory (yes they do this! See this blog.)

Meanwhile the Russian commanders instruct (some of) their units to shell civilian areas with mortar and GRAD rockets to cause a lot of civilian casualties. They do this so the civilian population will not dare to rise against them, to blame this destrcution on Ukraine and to have an ongoing flow of horrible images that they can show on Russian tv to justify what they are doing and to recruit volunteers to fight and die in Ukraine. See this blog.


Please support Ukraine to keep (the) Russia(n terrorists) out of their land.


Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:

Monday, July 21, 2014

Launch location detected of missile that brought down MH17

This photo has been circulating the web, claiming to be the trail of the missile that shot down MH17 and reported to be taken in Torez.


Unfortunately it's all we have. No other photos or videos have turned up from the launch. Nevertheless, this one is good enough, as you will see.

When you right click on it and do an Google Image Search you can see where this image appears on the net. It can be seen that this was on July 17th.

When it first appeared, I assessed this image to be authentic and used it, because:
  • it fitted with all the other data
  • it appeared very quickly after the event 
  • Google did not give any results, indicating it was indeed new
Up till today the photo still holds up. Nobody has been able to proof it was false.

UPDATE:
Of course now that I have published this blog, the paid Russian Propaganda Trolls try to discredit this photo. They argue that the sky has clouds in the crash-videos and this one has not. But this does not proof it's a fake photo of course. The launch-site and the crash-site are 20 kms apart. Photographing in a different direction may give a different sky and/or different clouds.
Here is a quick pick from a sky with very different areas of clouds. Depending where you are and in what direction you look, you will get a very different sky:



Ok, back to the launch photo.
An exact geolocation that fitted all the details has not been made, altough other attempts indicated they were in the right area.

Important details are the three poles on the horizon and the single trees in front of them:


These can be found here:


But the pattern does not seem to match. Where are the yellow poles. And there is a BIG mine at that location, so why don't we see any of it in the photo.
I tried to determine the best spot for the cameraman and asked somebody local to try to reproduce the photo, as well as taking photos near the area of the mine.

This photo is made on top of that hill near the mine:


It clearly is the same and the right landscape.

A detail from this photo:


The pole exactly fits with the ones in the photo and the mine clearly is behind the hill, that's why it does not appear on the photo. And the yellow poles of the cable cars are gone. We are definitely in the right direction.

This the photo he made trying to reproduce the original:


As you can see, it doesn't look like it AT ALL. But it IS the right area/village. On the original photo there is a distinguished pole in the village:


This CAN be seen in the photo:


But on the horizon there are trees and no poles can be seen. It means the camera position is way too low. The cameraman was at a much higher level.

On the map it turns out that further back along the lines of sight there are high apartment buildings. When I try to calculate the position along these lines of sight through obvious landscape elements, I get this:


Not all lines EXACTLY fit. But this my be due to the fact that this is really a long distance shot and on such scale the satellite images might get biassed a little bit.
So for further calculations I'll take the average middle one (red circle).
This is as accurately as possible the field of view of the photo:


Now we will draw a line from the camera position right through the middle of the smoke trail. That means a little bit on the right side of the long white pole. We draw that line all the way up to the area where we know that the BUK was:


When we project the tracks of the BUK that we discovered from the satellite images on this map and zoom in on that area, we get this:


As you can see it goes RIGHT THROUGH the tracks!!!

I would say there are two possible launch locations based on this information:


Either in the open in the middle of the field (large yellow circle), because a lot of tracks and turns had been seen there, or in between the cover of the little houses with the trees around it (small yellow circle).

This is the satellite image of the house:


Google maps of the house:



Satellite image of the field:



Conclusion
It is impossible to fake a photo that matches so perfectly with all the other data available. The simple fact that the direction in which we see the smoke trail matches exactly with the tracks we see in the field, means only one thing: the BUK that we have seen driving up there has fired the missile that brought down MH17.

We have been able to narrow down the launch site to one particular field or the houses next to it. Only when the site could be inspected it might be possible to learn more.

Also see: transport of the BUK into Ukraine.
Also see: how the Russians took down MH17
Also see: EXIF data of missile launch photo confirmed


BREAKING UPDATE
Link to CNN reporting about this.


Posted by Ukraine@war at 3 comments:

Satellite images reveal how the BUK has been driving near the launch location

David Clinch attended the twitter community on satellite images that Google Earth had been released of the crash area of MH17:
I installed the package and looked at the area where the BUK had been spotted latest. It is likely that it will not position itself on the middle of the road, but will look for a good launch location in the neighborhood. It might leave tracks in the field which could be spotted on a satellite image. And yes... tracks can be seen!

On the satellite image of July 20th tracks can be seen immediately at the end of the road out of Sniznhe where the BUK was last recorded on video:


Red arrow = direction the BUK was driving

Right through the fields two tracks can be seen, like this next to the yellow lines:


The normal Google Earth image looks like this:


At is dated from 8-8-2013. The farmer has been plowing his field, but he does not drive right across his field.

The satellite image from 31-12-2010 shows there used to be a path into one of the directions, but obviously it has been removed:


Here is another obvious double track:


It means partly the track has been use twice, but the curve has been taken differently.

On this location a vehicle has been turning around and even partly driven into the bush:


When I mark all tracks I can find, we see this:


This is a link to the area in Google Maps

The orange area is special:


All kind of curves and circles can be seen, but they are very hard to trace, because they are covered by plowing lines.

On the normal satellite image this cannot be seen:


So these tracks are not normal farmer tracks.

On another spot the farmer can even be seen plowing his field!!!


Purple lines = track
Red circle = farmer harvesting his field

The big question is: does this reveal anything about the launch location?
Well, not in a definite way yet, but it may narrow down some possibilities...

Take in mind that it is possible that the BUK has been driving around to purposely make tracks, because all military know about satellite images of course...


Also see: launch location detected of missile that shot down MH17
Also see: transport of the BUK into Ukraine.
Also see: how the Russians took down MH17
Also see: transport of the BUK out of Ukraine
Also see: quick update on the military situation in East-Ukraine
Posted by Ukraine@war at 1 comment:

Sunday, July 20, 2014

CNN being compromised by Russian Propaganda News Agency

This is an example of how Russian Propaganda works.


MH17 has been shot down.

Russian terrorists arrive at the scene, either TOGETHER with Russian journalists, or the latter are informed and arrive a little bit later.

Russian journalists shoot the footage, go back, make an item, broadcast it.

Other journalists are denied acces for some time and get limited acces anyways.

CNN wants to cover the issue, but does not have any journalists near, so they buy footage from a Russian News Agencie, because nobody else has this footage. The logo of this agency can be seen in the footage. Their website is here.

This Russian Agency puts THIS footage IN BETWEEN the shots off the crashed MH17:


The entire newsitem can be seen here.

This not from the MH17 crash scene. Nobody saw it. None of the other journalists have seen it. Nor can this shot in any way be related to the crash scene. It is just a random shot.


Next thing is that a German-language newspaper Aargauer Zeitung, picks up this screenshot from CNN:


In the top right corner it says "Ukraine earlier", but all the footage from the crash site has this. It doesn not mean this shot is frome something earlier, but all the footage happened earlier in Ukraine and is not 'live' broadcasted.

Beneath the photo it says: "The image that CNN showed yesterday would be rocket debris as it was found at the crash site of MH17."

Next thing is that they call in experts asking them the question whether this is indeed a BUK-missile?


So they answer: "Based on the image of the remains it does not concern a known version of the BUK-system. to us".
Or to put it short: no, it is not BUK. But maybe it is a predecessor, they say.

Of course this contradicts the story of the BUK. So maybe that story isn't true after all?

At the time I did a Google Image Search on this screenshot ONLY German, Chinese and Taiwan Media featured it:


It makes you think, doesn't it? 


Of course people notice the rocket and start to discuss this. And from here it is food for trolls, conspiracy theories and you name it.


It also makes you think: how on earth do they get this shot so quickly in the footage? As if they had it already available for this.


This is like a killer filming one of his murders, then selling the footage to a tv-station and getting paid for it. In the footage he includes shots that give him an excuse. He will continue to do the next crime, because he earns money from it.

Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:

Conversations between Russian terrorists when they bring in the BUK that shot down MH17.

Ukrainian intelligence is constantly monitoring and recording telephone calls between Russian terrorists. Of course they do not publish this all the time. But with the shooting down of MH17, they released several tapped phonecalls that show how they transported it into Ukraine to its launch location.

Here are these conversations with English subtitles:



Here is another one when the plane is spotted:

Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:

Russias Propaganda Network Lifenews BEFORE and AFTER

On July 17th Russia shot down MH17 with sophisticated military hardware.
Initially the Russian terrorists cheered about it, because they thought they brought down a Ukrainian military cargo plane AN-26.

The journalists of Russian Propaganda Media Networks closely cooperate with the soldiers. They always know when something is happening and are given first access. Therefor they are always the first to report and conclude about what is happening.

As such, Lifenews quickly reported about the succes of bringing down the AN-26. Only THEN they realized it was a civilian plane and they had to bring out a new newsitem about it.

Here you can view the BEFORE and AFTER newsitem.



This video was available all the time, but now it is with English subtitles.
It is clear by videos like this that the Russians in East-Ukraine shot down MH17.

Read here in detail how Russia shot down MH17.
Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:
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