These are the things Russia can still do during a 'cease-fire'
1. Attack on all fronts without the risk if a (big) counter attack!
Headline from eastern #Ukraine this morning basically says it all. pic.twitter.com/7LM6bGDbML
— Conflict Reporter (@Conflict_Report) March 9, 2015
Tonight terrorist forces shelled #Avdeevka again. The school destroyed. - via @dnavtoparts @wisenger pic.twitter.com/WH4yBPBcKO #ceasefire
— Ruthen (@RutheniaRus) March 6, 2015
#BREAKINGNEWS RUSSIAN FORCES DESTROYED AN UKRAINIAN BTR-3 IN CENTRAL #SHYROKYNE. https://t.co/xOzqTEP60b #NOceasefire pic.twitter.com/cFNeYORg33
— Conflict Reporter (@Conflict_Report) March 4, 2015
2. Fool OSCE (and the West)
Ceasefire adhered despite some incidents in Sievierodonetsk, Luhansk, Debaltseve & Donetsk. Latest @OSCE_SMM report http://t.co/35VS3rkBaP
— OSCE (@OSCE) February 16, 2015
#OSCE reports: "The cease-fire does not hold everywhere." Kind of like being "slightly pregnant." pic.twitter.com/QK7h4qvkAJ
— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) March 5, 2015
Latest from SMM 04 March: SMM could not verify withdrawal of heavy weapons on some occasions due to restrictions on its freedom of movement
— СММ ОБСЄ в Україні (@OSCE_SMM) March 5, 2015
3. Withdraw your troops (which means ROTATE them)
Russia Uses Withdrawal of Weapons to Rotate its Forces: https://t.co/8S1JDL52pQ pic.twitter.com/h6P0i9RPIORussia can not keep the same troops fighting all the time. It must rotate troops and get fresh ones on the battlefield. What better time to do this then during a 'cease-fire' without any risks?
— InformNapalm English (@en_informnapalm) March 7, 2015
Russian hybrid army has had SEVERE losses in manpower as well as vehicles during the battle of Debaltseve and Donetsk Airport. They need to regroup and reorganise these forces. And they need to evaluate their performance and make plans for their next move.
Even while he visited Donetsk Airport (4 March), Lentsov was on his phone giving orders to his Russian troops. pic.twitter.com/73sDhKHxyy
— GorseFires Collectif (@GorseFires) March 6, 2015
5. Train (new batches of) fighters.
Russian Army training area in Luhansk, Ukraine 3 March: View from the command post https://t.co/KHI466VYip
— GorseFires Collectif (@GorseFires) March 3, 2015
#Russia's army in #Luhansk prepare for something pretty big. No hint of withdrawal, only advance... #Kiselev #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/rKStOBtHJ4What better opportunity than to train the new waves of fighters that will flood Ukraine?
— Silver Surfer (@RobPulseNews) March 3, 2015
A new batch of Yakuts and Buryats in Rostov pic.twitter.com/92Jzk9qeBz http://t.co/kDA1e2F7hJ
— GorseFires Collectif (@GorseFires) March 5, 2015
Slobozhanschyna battalion commander Andriy Yanholenko's car blown up #Kharkiv https://t.co/9curaqibYD pic.twitter.com/UjUu5EA3VA via @ianbateson
— Ukraine@war (@DajeyPetros) March 6, 2015
The death toll from the Kharkiv terrorism bomb grew to 4. They were 52, 37, 18 & 15 years old. Went to a peace march. pic.twitter.com/elIrUhTkzI
— Paul Niland (@PaulNiland) February 24, 2015
Last night in Odessa a bomb went off near Right Sector HQ: pic.twitter.com/COZm9U2lsU
— Vera Van Horne (@VeraVanHorne) March 6, 2015
7. Repair damaged and captured tanks
Tymchuk: Militants repairing military equipment and building up forces http://t.co/WxSlK8aOXm pic.twitter.com/LlwafsM0c2
— UNIAN.info (@UnianInfo) March 6, 2015
Russias 'DNR' soldiers repairing tanks to get ready for the next battle https://t.co/F6K8XfYAcF
— Ukraine@war (@DajeyPetros) March 9, 2015
8. Consolidate your position in other annexed territories
Russia is holding military drills in nearby breakaway regions — via @RFERL http://t.co/vn5NuVdajX pic.twitter.com/7FN2hVQR0n
— BI Military+Defense (@BI_Defense) March 5, 2015
9. Steal anything of value in the occupied territory
What de facto annexation looks like: armed men breaking into a woman's home in Donetsk say "it's Russian rule here" http://t.co/U1v3ty7SIO
— Ukraine Reporter (@StateOfUkraine) March 3, 2015
10. Kill a political opponent that was about to reveal how Russian troops are involved in East-Ukraine
Reports #Nemtsov was going to publish report on #Russia troops in #Ukraine, w documents & interviews of soldiers pic.twitter.com/JNWaAfN2Nk
— raging.me (@raging545) February 27, 2015
11. Solve internal problems with the criminals that you gave weapons and now try to settle issues amongst each other with those.
With Russia's hybrid army with lots of criminals you also get lot of infighting #Krasnyi_Luch https://t.co/xCEZQs8fed via @Conflict_Report
— Ukraine@war (@DajeyPetros) March 2, 2015
12. Try to prevent the West from arming Ukraine
Minsk II came WHILE the US was about to decide to arm Ukraine. Since there is something like decrease in hostilities, the West is tempted to postpone that decision.
Top US lawmakers call on Obama to arm Ukraine http://t.co/C6MByZXYaKAs soon as the decision is made NOT to arm Ukraine, hostilities can intensify again.
— USOSINT (@USOSINT) March 6, 2015
For Russia, while waging a hybrid war, a cease-fire is not just the end of hostilities with the possibility on lasting peace. It is just another phase in the war with its own opportunities and possibilities.
All the things mentioned above are clear indications the war is NOT OVER YET.
Meanwhile the whole conflict destabilizes Ukraine, with prices going through the roof and the risk of a financial default, which is almost as good as a surrender right away.
Poroshenko: Quarter of Ukraine’s industry stopped because of war http://t.co/4I76a2d6ID pic.twitter.com/T4YEwXZXwR
— UNIAN.info (@UnianInfo) March 9, 2015
The West must use this period to use all non-military means to isolate Russia until it withdraws from East-Ukraine AND Crimea:
Cameron: If #Russia doesn't like to play by 21st C rules, then it may bid adieu to 21st C banking rules too pic.twitter.com/eNdC4ZsXxG #UkraineI only wished these were more than just words and empty threats, because that's what they unfortunately are.
— Paula Chertok (@PaulaChertok) February 25, 2015