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Thursday, February 19, 2015

How Russia wants to flood Eastern-Europe with 100.000+ soldiers in 2015.

Zakharchenko has announced on February 2nd that 100k men will be mobilised for DNR:




Such statements are easily considered as bluff and bullying.

But guess what?

Russian criminals
You can find an official news article about it here.

It clearly state up to 200.000 inmates may be released in beginning of 2015:


The article says:
  1. It will save the state a lot of money...
  2. It has been done before in 2000 and it did NOT increase the crime rate...
  3. Russia will move UP in international rank of number of prisoners per 100.000 from 30 to 10

But what really is going to happen is what you can read in this blog in a well-documented case of a perpetrator trying to escape prison by going to war in Ukraine.



Alexey Milchakov is another example of a boy with criminal tendencies who joined the army to escape police investigations and who is killing in Ukraine now for money. See this blog. Or this one.



Right now this all is already a common practice:

You have to understand that Russia and especially Russian Cossacks have a good tradition of how to deal with criminals in the ranks:





They publicly get whipped or beaten with sticks when they did something wrong. See this blog about their barbaric methods. THAT's how they keep criminals obeying them... by treating them with uttermost aggression.

This aggressive method can also be seen in this video from 2008 about discipline/training in the Russian army.
Note: it is a very disturbing video.



Conscripts are totally beaten up as if they are prisoners of war. It's hard to imagine for Westerners. But when you see this video, you better understand what is happening in East-Ukraine right now.

Why they do this:
  1. to force obedience (not all may be there by free will).
  2. to give them some 'battle experience' already so they know what's coming.
  3. to give an example of how they should treat the enemy as well.

These methods will 'help' the Russians to keep control of 100.000 inmates with weapons.

And again... we HAVE ALREADY SEEN THIS in Ukraine. We have seen lots of reports of infighting between armed groups in Ukraine.

See for instance this very brutal incident recorded on CCTV cameras.
Or see this analysis of how Russian forces submit unobedient subordinates.

All this insubordinance has been suppressed by the Russians and the disobedient have been killed or replaced. That made Russia ready for the next move: taking Debaltseve.

The point is: being a mafia state itself, Russia KNOWS how to deal with criminals, warlords and dangerous men with weapons. Just face them with even more power and aggression.


Locals
Here is the well documented story of a local who committed a rather insignificant crime (looting; in a war-zone without basic needs to survive!!) who gets death-penalty and could escape this by going to fight:


By imposing martial law in the conflict zone the Terrorussians can force and recruit anybody to fight for them.
By creating a humanitarian disaster in the conflict zone, everybody looses jobs, money and means to exist. Then they 'invite' everybody capable of fighting to join the militias, so they will get paid.


Local criminals
Another thing is that in every European country there are far-right groups and local mafia and criminals who are willing to fight for Russia. Why? Because all of a sudden Russia gives them weapons and power and says to them: do what we want and you can get what you want (money, drugs, power, whatever). That's why local criminals as 'Givi' and Zakharchenko all of a sudden rise from nothing and start killing for Russia. Such 'locals' can be found EVERYWHERE. Because they get amnesty for their crimes, they get weapons and power, they get a lot of media attention, they become kings (for 5 minutes; until Russia is done with them).

As can be seen with ISIS, uttermost aggression and bloody warporn videos attracts people of a certain type. It recruits new members. This works similar for Russian terror.




Canon fodder
Russia does not care about these people. They may die by the hundreds. We have seen this with Donetsk Airport and with Debaltseve. It doesn't matter how long it takes and it doesn't matter how big the losses are. After one wave the next wave comes and eventually it wears the defenders out and they have to retreat.



What you think is going to happen when 100k soldiers flood the frontlines?



Mercenaries
And of course there are the thousands of (Chechen, Cossack, Serb) mercenaries. But these guys seem to have a bit of a different role. They might be there to mingle with the criminals to keep them in control.



Russia's own military
The whole point of all this is to keep Russia's own regular military OUT of the conflict AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. They will only be used when really necessary, to get the victory at the last stage. Special forces will do the tricky stuff and they will seldom to never get filmed.
Also the whole COMMAND AND CONTROL is in Russian hands.

But even so a lot of conscripts are tricked into fighting in Ukraine:


So Europe, you better prepare for the next wave...
(I'm sure we are not ready for this but I'm NOT sure if we are even ready for JUST READ THE MESSAGE about this! Anyways... it has been said now. You can not say you didn't know anymore. You can only say you didn't believe it.)


This is what happens when people want to go back to Russia:
Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Debaltseve has fallen - Russian generals coordinated it

Map of Debaltseve area yesterday:
This video shows how Ukrainian soldiers get captured in Eastern part of Debaltseve, while battle is going on:



There is only ONE guy in this video that COULD be a POW:


Because his face looks beaten up. That's standard procedure for the Russian( proxie)s.

This video shows how these POWs are taken away:



The location is here.

There is not ONE single Ukrainian mark on those soldiers. They are allowed to carry bags. They do NOT look beaten up. They are treated quite nice. They don't look scared or demoralized. They look clean. They don't look like they have been fighting for days and days in a row.
So this very much looks like a staged scene as happens so often on Russian TV.


Note this... there is a Russian general on the scene:

You can find more info on him in this blog.

Oh yes there was some kind of agreement that this guy would work on a 'peace plan' together with Ukraine. See this video. But that is TOTALLY INSANE! You don't invite the enemy that wants to TAKE OVER your country INTO your country to work together with him.
And this is what you get when you do: he is overseeing the takeover of Debaltseve and the taking prisoners of Ukrainian soldiers (even though this video is staged, in reality he DOES do this too of course).

This general Lentsov is the commander in charge of all forces in East-Ukraine. He works together with general Vyaznikov who is on the Ukrainian side in Soledar (also a INCOMPREHENSIBLE thing).

This is the other guy with him:
He is supposedly from Lugansk and has several online 'profiles' that say so. But he is first seen in East Ukraine when the huge Russian take-over army entered Lugansk. See this article. This 'army' was send to settle all the in-fighting between local warlords and the disobedience towards the Kremlin. See for instance this article.
So in my opinion he is a RUSSIAN colonel with a constructed local profile as to make it appear this man is a rebel.








In this blog I warned for and Ilovaisk 2.0 at Debaltseve.
@MrKovalenko is a press and communications officer in the Ukrainian army:
Happily he and his men got out save:

I'm also happy that even though Debaltseve had to be given up to the Russian aggression, it did not turn into the massacre it COULD have been...

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Monday, February 16, 2015

Russian( proxie)s tried to kill BBC crew at Donetsk Airport

In this video:



a BBC reporter Ian Pannell and his crew are being shown around at Donetsk Airport:


by this team/heavily guarded guy who is 'the DPR defense minister':



Then, the reporter and his team are left alone so they can take some on-camera-shots:


WHILE he is talking a mortar round explodes nearby. He ducks:


This is what he says:

"This is supposed to be day two of the cease-fire in Eastern-Ukraine. And as we've been hearing .... [impact #1]  the peace has not settled in.
We've been hearing the consistent sound of artillery ... [ impact #2] ... being fired. There's another one.
MOST OF IT APPEARS TO BE OUTGOING. (Capitals ny me)
The people of the DPR are saying that they are suppressing fire ... [impact #3]"

This impact #3 is RIGHT IN VIEW of the camera on the roof of the building behind the reporter:


They duck again:


This is the situation map:


He had been pointing into the direction were the mortar fire was coming from:


On the map you can see this comes from anywhere between south and southeast, which is all Russian occupied territory:


They star start running away (red arrow in map above):


You can see that his 'guide' and bodyguards are nowhere to be seen:



When they are back, the well protected 'guide' explains how and when:


While ANOTHER round explodes. "That's firing OUT," the reporter says to him:


"No," the 'defence minister' says, "it's going in AND out."
Having intimidated and over bluffed the reporter by his firm and quick response, the reporter explains: "He is trying to stop the enemy from firing at their positions".

BUT... this CLEARLY was OUTGOING mortar fire and it was aimed at THEIR position.


Conclusion
The Russians tried to hit the BBC crew with mortars to get them killed.
They had been firing the mortar all the time for the BBC crew to get used to it. Then they were left alone. The defense minister and his body guards took care that they were far away from the scene. They likely gave instructions and coordinates to the mortar team were to the BBC crew was. They tried to adjust fire to that location, but the team got scared and ran away before anything bad happened.
They did not succeed, but imagine what a HUGE international scandal it would have been if they WOULD have succeeded...
And of course... Ukraine would have been blamed for this, because peace-loving Russians don't do that kind of stuff... they don't fire at their 'own airport'.

@BBCiPannell and his team may thank God that they are still alive.


Remember how something similar happened with an Italian journalist and his interpreter near Slovyansk? See this article for instance.
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Saturday, February 14, 2015

Russia hacked National Guard of Ukraine-website and posted a fake "Yarosh offensive article"












Meanwhile:


Euromaidan also has a page about this.


CLEARLY Russia wants to keep on fighting and is looking for an excuse to blame Ukraine for breaking the cease-fire. (Actually exactly the same as after Minsk I).

Don't fall for this guys... You should be smarter than this!



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Friday, February 13, 2015

Russians use cluster munition to attack city of Artemivsk

Four videos showed the attack:



This video shows how the rocket explodes at high altitude releasing the bomblets:



Scared to death residents seek shelter at the walls of a church:



This video records actual impacts:



Three of the videos can be geolocated like this:


In video #1 it can not very clearly be seen where the impacts hit. It seems to me that it's rather more to the left in the view than in the middle.
Where the views cross (red lines) there, the impacts must have been. It is partly houses and partly fields and forest.

These photos show an unexploded bomblet:





Conclusion
Clearly cluster munition has been used. 
Clearly it a residential area has been hit. 
Clearly it has been shot by Terrorussians.
Any questions?


In this article @Olesolvang reports about the attack. Even though it is OBVIOUS that the attacks of Kramatorsk and Artemivsk are executed by the Russian side, their is NO specific condemnation of the Russians.

What we do find is this:


They documented Ukrainian use of cluster munition in Donetsk. Well they did NOT. They ASSUMED it, but did not prove it AT ALL.

Then Ole says:


He documented the use "in both areas". Thus avoiding putting blame to any side. 
Also he INCORRECTLY uses the term 'rebels'. See for instance this blog.

Then he DOES mention three attacks on 'government-controlled' towns:


But... not putting blame to anyone here!
Then the 'rebel'-areas are mentioned:


It is an improvement that Ole calls them 'Russian-backed rebels' now. But this is still incorrect, because it does not acknowledge that Russia is destabilising Ukraine in an attempt to keep it away from the EU and in an attempt to grab land to create a land-corridor to Crimea, which it annexed earlier on.

He is not putting blame here either.
He ends with:


So what do we have?
Ole AVOIDS putting blame, but STARTS with putting blame to Ukraine (since he had documented the Donetsk attack) and he ASSUMES/SUGGESTS that when an area is controlled by one side it is being bombed by the other side.

Netto result: he DOES NOT directly blame Russia, but he DOES blame Ukraine again (for an unproven thing).

Well thank you very much Ole and HRW. You managed to do it again. Even though it is SO OBVIOUS AS CAN BE that Russia bombed Ukrainian cities with cluster bombs, you managed to blame the victim again over the aggressor.

Why don't you just go home?

And one thing you just guys just completely FAIL to understand: Russia is bombing Ukrainian cities to destroy them! IT DOES NOT MATTER whether these cities are Ukrainian controlled or Russia occupied. Do you understand that? They don't care... In ALL cases these are Ukrainian cities and they bomb them.

But more important: Russia HAS TO BOMB Ukrainian cities and villages THEY CONTROL THEMSELVES, otherwise they can not film bloody victims for Russian TV and blame Ukraine for it! Because they can not film the victims they make in Ukrainian controlled areas. Do you understand this too?

So Ole... open your eyes for what is REALLY going on here, or just go home. Otherwise you are part of the problem instead of the solution.


Also see: how Kenneth Roth is tweeting Russian Propaganda about Ukraine, but NOT correcting it when he finds out.


UPDATE 14-2
Two more videos appeared:



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Thursday, February 12, 2015

Why 'peace-deals' benefit the Kremlin

It is IMPOSSIBLE to have EVERY single checkpost along the front line fortified so much that it can withstand weeks of shelling followed by concentrated attacks with tanks and heavy weapons.

A GOOD military defence strategy is what we will call the block-and-fist strategy, like ancient warriors: a shield in one arm and a sword in the other.
The 'block' stands for the defence. The 'fist' for the strike back.

A thousand soldiers with shields in a row can be defeated by just TEN, if their strategy is to 'only defend' (and never strike back). The ten just pick out a weak spot and hammer it with their swords until it falls. Then they can regroup, drink some tea and pick another one.



Ukraine needs a defense line and behind it FISTs, that is: strike-back-forces. It means when a checkpoint is attacked, it immediately triggers a strong force behind it, to either jump into the defence or counterattack on another area:
Blue line = Defense line
Red line = enemy positions
Blue circles = fortified positions, checkpoints
Blue square = 'strike back force'
Yellow arrow = enemy attack on a position
Light blue arrows = jump into defense and/or counterattack as response to attack

All peace-deals so far just mean that Ukraine can never use it's 'fist'-option. It can NEVER strike back. That means the power of ANY defense is taken away. They just have so sit and wait and see what happens next. And what happens next, we know: yet another checkpoint falls and another and another. OF COURSE!!!! That's what you get with such a strategy.


Effectively a peace-plan benefits Russia: it takes the power out of Ukraine's defense.


UPDATE 17-2


up
Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:

Minsk 2.0 Another failure?

You can find an unofficial translation of the Minsk 2.0 agreements here.


Remember how Aidar units got ambushed WHILE RETREATING FROM THE AREA when Minsk 1.0 started? See this blog. This will happen to Debaltseve too.
Meanwhile:








That just means border control is NEVER going to happen!

Yet Western media report like this:




Conclusion
This is a farce. It will be used by Russia and it's proxies to their advantage. That means: Ukraine can not attack back. Yet THEY can freely attack and advance where they like.


Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:
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