Sunday, May 3, 2015

Russia shelling Donetsk again and trying to blame Ukraine

The first steps of Russia's new offensive in Ukraine have begun again this weekend. Donetsk residential area has been shelled so they can convince the people there and the public in Russia that Russia's war against Ukraine is justified.

This video shows the aftermath of some of the shelling in Kyiv district:

This map shows most of the impacts shown in the video:

The OSCE look at an impact location that came from the North and COULD have come from Ukrainian side, as well as Russian:

But the other two impacts with the yellows lines indicate the shelling came from North-East direction, which is Russian occupied territory.

Impact 1
There is another video of this impact that is more revealing:

This screenshot will help us to roughly determine the direction of impact:

The rule of thumb here is: direction of impact is perpendicular to the plane through the line on the wall and the impact crater:

(For an extensive explanation and example on this method, see this Volnovakha blog.)

This direction projected on the map looks like this:

The shells came from anywhere in between the direction of the yellow cone.
On a larger scale it looks like this:

Orange line = current frontline according to MilitaryCraps
Read area = 8 km range from which shelling must have come

This screenshot shows that there was an impact tight on the stairs leading to school 58:

This video shows the left (southern) side of the school is still intact:

This streetview from Yandex shows the intact stairs:

It means the whole plateau in front of the door has been blown away by a direct hit.

On the map it can be seen that the direction of impact must have come from the Eastern side, anywhere from almost North to almost South:

On a larger scale it can be seen that this is consistent with the NNe direction of the other impact:

Also it is clear that such an impact never could have come from Western Ukrainian side.

Russia and its propaganda media are playing foul game again. They are deliberately heating up the tension by shelling Donetsk again, like they have done so many times before, and blaming Ukraine for it.

The bad news is that such actions are a prelude to the larger offensives that are coming soon.

Also see: another earlier example of how Russia tries to blame Ukraine for shelling Donetsk.

Here is a Ukrainian language debunking blog about this shelling.

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