Showing posts with label Marinovka. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Marinovka. Show all posts

Friday, April 8, 2016

Scale of the Krasnyi Luch 2014 operation and destruction

In this previous blog we examined the first large Russian invasion into Ukraine, that happened at Dibrivka (East of Marinovka) which was prelude to the other better known large scale invasion at Ilovaisk.

Still there are a lot of questions about this invasion, such as: where did all these vehicles go and what did they do? It most likely had something to do with the Krasnyi Luch disaster.
So here is a further investigation into what had been going on there.


Determining how far the Ukrainians had come.
First thing is: how far did the Ukrainians actually get? On the official ATO maps on August 8th it shows attacks are going on towards the direction of Krasnyi Luch:




On the map of August 11th it shows Miusynsk is captured:




And that's it. These maps never show Ukraine anywhere closer to Krasnyi Luch. But these maps are not really reliable. They for instance never show Ukrainian forces anywhere near Izvarino either, while there is a very clear destroyed/abandoned Ukrainian camp there.

But there isn't much consistency among different origins of maps either:

Furthermore such maps always lag several days behind the actual events, since it takes time for information to show up and HQs don't want to let you know what they are doing in real time.

So there is a need to more precisely know the maximum extend to where the Ukrainians had come and how exactly the Russians defeated them.
A combination of open sources can be uses to determine this.
  1. lostarmour.info gives geotagged info on where wrecks from the war can be found. If a Ukrainian wreck is somewhere, it means the Ukrainians have been there.
     
  2. Satellite images help to see where camps, positions, tracks and wrecks are or where fighting or shelling took place. Impact craters can be used to determine the direction and thus who likely shot them and that in turn may help to determine who created the tracks.
     
  3. Geolocated videos helps to determine areas of operation and identify better who shot the shells and who had been driving where. Also this helps to determine dates and timeframes, since videos can not have been recorded after their uploaddate.

Lostarmour.info
Lostarmour.info is a Russian language database that records all wrecks in Ukraine based on photo or video evidence. It is pretty accurate, but nonetheless a Russian propaganda site for these reasons:
  1. In case of doubt, wrecks will be assigned as Ukrainian.
  2. Russian( proxie)s use Ukrainian markings on their vehicles too.
  3. Russian armour that has been damaged is being removed as quickly as possible from the battlefield and therefore remains unrecorded.
  4. Since most of the contributors are (pro)Russians, destroyed/captured (and removed) Russian armour on Ukrainian side are hardly recorded. (See for instance this example. In the 'guided tour' by Aleksander Ivin in this area, the camera only starts recording after he just passed this wreck which is visible on several dates of satellite images.)
  5. Russian militias made a lot of use of civilian cars. A LOT of civilian cars like that were destroyed. See this blog for instance. There is NOT A SINGLE ONE in the LostArmour database.
Because of this, the database mainly has Ukrainian wrecks and very little Russian ones. On the other hand most of the Ukrainian vehicles were destroyed by (cross-border) Russian artillery fire, and thus a lot more Ukrainian armour was destroyed than Russian.
Good practice to use the database, seems to be this:
  1. If vehicles are said to be (pro)Russian, there is no denying they are.
  2. If assigned Ukrainian, double check if they are. There is always a chance they just say so.
  3. A (very) large percentage of (pro)Russian wrecks will not be recorded.
Since the database gives references to sources, it is also a good starting point to find videos about the events.

In the area of Marinovka-Krasnyi Luch we see this:




Up to the Northern part of Krasnyi Luch Ukrainian wrecks can be found as well as Russian.


A closer look at that area shows this:



The red lines are unique tracks not on roads, seen on the satellite image of Sept 4th and not seen on the previous image (2013).
The purple areas contain impact craters from artillery, with the yellow lines indicating some of the directions. Most of it comes from Russian side, some from Ukrainian.
The very small white areas are houses being damaged, indicating there was heavy fighting there.
The orange area top right shows lot of tracks, indicating armor had been moving back and forth there. Probably this was a position for a Russian tank.
The green line indicates how far the Ukrainians did come at least.

The red car icon is the position where four Russian wrecks were, as can be seen in this video:



There are two white vans (red squares; not in LostArmour) and two Kamaz 5350 (orange squares). See Lostarmour #1 Lostarmour #2.
A small Russian convoy got seriously hit here.

The vehicle icon in the middle is a BMP 2, assigned Ukrainian by LA (LostArmour):



The icon at the left is where the satellite image rather clearly shows what must be another wreck:




The red circle shows the blast and burn marks on the street. On the left bottom side in the circle there is a wreck.
LA does not show this wreck and none of the videos in the area show it either. This might very well be another Russian vehicle conveniently omitted for propaganda services.


Did the Ukrainians come any further?
This video claims to have been recorded on the road (M3) from Debaltseve to Krasny Luch or even Antratsyt, but it can not be geolocated anywhere on it. If this would be true, Krasny Luch would have been completely encircled and cut of at one moment, but for now there are no hard indications this had really happened.

On July 30th there was an air raid (pink area) on the main blockpost in the NorthWest (red area):



Even though there was damage on nearby buildings it had largely missed the blockpost.

This article says the battalions that travelled up to Krasnyi Luch moved North to Lutuhyne under Lugansk and thus entirely left the area...

On autotranslate:


Red Ray = autotranslation of Krasnyi Luch

It is possible... with the cossacks fleeing, their blockpost might not show signs of battle. The area between Krasnyi Luch and Lutuhyne is largely nomansland, uncontested or... empty, so easy to travel through without trouble. But this was 'leaving the area' and not 'liberating it'.
Since most of the details in that article matches with our findings here, it seems to be correct.


Applying same method to whole area
When we apply the same method (finding tracks, areas with impacts, wrecks, etcetera) we get this overall picture:



Black line = the border with Russia.
Red tracks = the two main routes of the Russian Dmytrivka-Dibrivka invasion.
Green line = the border as how far the Ukrainians did get based on evidence found.
Dotted green line = likely the Ukrainians got a bit further in these areas as well.
Red/dark orange areas = Russian troops and positions
Light orange areas = location with a lot of tracks
Blue areas = Ukrainian positions


Wrecks
These are the wrecks that were found in this investigation:



dark blue  = Ukrainian wrecks (also) in LostArmour (24 pieces)
light blue  = Ukrainian wrecks identified from videos (31 pieces)
yellow  = likely wrecks visible on satellite images (18 pieces)

So in this area about 3 times as much wrecks were found as in LA, (with passenger cars not even included).
It still remains a big question especially what the identity is of the wrecks visible on Google Earth.


Unique tracks
These are the unique tracks visible on the satellite images:



thin red lines = unique tracks of one or maybe some more vehicles.
thick red lines = multiple tracks or 'broad road' visible
orange lines = normal roads or paths

Three specific areas can be distinguished:




Yellow area
The yellow area shows multiple unique tracks (besides the normal roads) leading from Stepanivka/Marinovka to the road North of Dmitrivka and to Krasnyi Luch. Clearly the Ukrainian attack has been taking place along these routes although some of course also might/must have been used by the Russians chasing the retreating Ukrainians.

Red area
The red area is like a big path with multiple tracks going towards Krasny Luch. Here are some sections of it:



Many vehicles took a left turn here...

Here they are running back and forth across a field:



Did a Russian invasion attack take place along this route to flank the Ukrainians that went to Krasnyi Luch? Or was it a Ukrainian attack adding to the advance that came from Stepanivka? Or was it even something different?

Green areas
The green areas in the middle are really strange. Lots and lots of tracks also leading into and from the treelines:









Even debris/garbage/left overs can be seen laying around:



Tracks leading in and out of the treelines are almost certainly from military camps. But besides that, a lot of activity seemed to have been going on too.

The big question is: was it a Russian camp or a Ukrainian? And thus, was it part of the Ukrainian advance, or part of the Russian invasion?
And related to this question: was Dmytrivka taken back by the Ukrainians (for a very short period) in the Krasny Luch operation or has it always stayed under Russian control?


Sequence of events that led to Krasnyi Luch disaster
In order to determine what had happened, we can make a timeline of geolocated videos from that period and draw them on the map accordingly, with an appropriate adjusted frontline.


July 3rd
Our start map is from the beginning of July when the Ukrainian army had almost reached Izvaryne.
This video with an upload date of July 3rd shows the Ukrainian army shooting at passenger cars on the Izvaryne road (as already said: Russian militias used passenger cars a lot...):



The video was taken like this:



red line = incoming fire from Ukrainian position

So far no videos have been found showing/proving the Ukrainian army got any further than this.

Near Marynivka the situation must have looked like this:



There are Ukrainian positions visible near Semenivske and Tarany. Stepanivka was not taken at that time, Marynivka was in Ukrainian control, but Dmytrivka was not (there was a now deleted video of Aleksander Ivin on July 3rd near Dmytrivka).
Substantial Ukrainian forces were located NorthEast of Dibrivka.

As can be seen there is a dangerous narrow path at the location of Chervona Zorya. What makes that area even more difficult, is that a small river runs north-south at the point which needs to be crossed to get to the border area Eastwards.

Google Earth shows two pontoon bridges were placed there:



LostArmour shows that not all Ukrainian tanks made it to the other side...



The complete early July map along the Russian border looks like this, with the rest of the front line drawn at some distance from the known Ukrainian camps visible on the satellite images:




First half of July
Next significant events are:
To summarize this: heavy and intense artillery from Russian side that destroyed some Ukrainian camps. With Marinovka being taken, there is not even a hard road connecting the border area. Big risk of getting completely cut off.

It makes the map look something like this:




On the other hand, at the same time Ukraine has been making progress in the Starobesheve-Amvrosiivka area, moving towards Shakhtarsk. As such it is broadening the area leading to Marinovka. This is evident from the 16-7 satellite image where several Ukrainian camps/roadblocks/fortifications/vehicles and even a battle area can be seen in that area:



Green line = approximate frontline on 16-7
Dark green line = approximate frontline on 3-7

A Ukrainian camp:



Area where a battle has been fought:




July 17th
On July 17th MH17 was shot down... 
That was basically in the middle of the turning point of the war. Up till then Ukraine had been making a lot of progress, liberating towns and villages one after the other. It continued doing so for a while, but it was already starting to loose at the border, although it didn't fully realise this at that time. And Russia was planning to do some BIG invasions... 
One might even argue that the downing of MH17 was to distract from the many cross-border shellings.


Second half of July
Next significant events were:
The border units are firmly cut off at Marinovka. The Dyakove units still hold ground and seem rather untouched so far. There may be remnants of other units still along the border, but they hardly 'control' anything. They just try to survive the continuous shelling from Russian side which they cannot counter and they are on the retreat.
The border seems lost...

It makes the map look like this:




End of July
Significant events:
Ukrainian units drove all the way from Debaltseve to Hirne and then to Petrivske. They must have arrived near Petrivske at July 28th. Saur Mogila was reported to be taken (but only briefly) and Stepanivka was captured on July 29th. So it seems the attack on Stepanivka came from the direction of Petrivske.
Their colleagues also coming from the north, entered the outskirts of Shakhtarsk in the East.
Now the pressure is on, on the Dyakove camps. A convoy including an ammunition truck got completely destroyed. The next day on July 29th some other units got a deadly surprise very close to the Russian border. They discovered the hard way that they were completely cut off.
Some Ukrainians were captured and tortured by Aleksander Ivin's team.
Meanwhile their camps are heavily shelled as satellite images show.





Beginning of August
Key events:
Ukrainians advance towards Krasny Luch WHILE the border units escape from the border zone traveling North around Dmytrivka. This can be understood from the (geolocated) videos from Vitek Nikolaevskij. (We'll have a detailed look at those in a separate upcoming blog, since they are essential in understanding what had happened.) From thess we'll also understand that the green areas had been used by Russia to shell the (retreating) Ukrainian units (yellow arrow).
Almost immediately after the advance there is already a deadly counterattack on the checkpoint near Pervomaiskyi.




Since the escaping border units had to travel around Dmytrivka, we can safely conclude that Dmytrivka was not taken by Ukraine in the Krasnyi Luch operation.


Mid August
Russian counterattack and invasion:
With Ukraine's border units destroyed, a new phase comes into play: Russia no longer can just attack with artillery from it's own territory and will need to massively invade Ukraine. The steady but limited supply of armor so far, is not enough to turn the Ukrainian upcoming tide.
To cover up for this Putin had invented the White Truck Charade which kept Western journalists busy for days.
The counterattack first and mostly comes from Dmytrivka area to cut of the Ukrainian units that went to Miusynsk and Krasny Luch. The supply route for this was the Dibrivka route.
Motorola's team joined in from the other side, especially to produce videos and to make it look like 'a handful of rebels destroyed the Ukrainian army'.

That makes the map look like this:


The long video above shows that the entire Krasny Luch area was cleared by that day. The operation had started on the 5th of August. By the 12th it had already been firmly cut off. It lasted 1 to maximum two weeks and came at a tremendous cost in armour. It's hard to say exactly how many Ukrainians died in this operation.
It's only success basically was that the border units were able to escape.


Second invasion route to Dibrivka
As shown in the Dibrivka invasion blog, the Russians created an entire road to Dibrivka through the fields, as can be seen on this satellite image:



Since the first image after 2013 dates from February 2015 it is hard to tell exactly when this road was created and whether it was used for the Krasnyi Luch operation or not.
Without a budget for buying expensive satellite images, we can still use the previews to determine the date :-), since this road is large enough to show up on a preview. Apollomapping.com has one of the best user interfaces for searching satellite images.

On 21-9-2014 the 'road' is still not visible:



On 29-9 it is:



Therefore we must conclude that this second route had nothing to do with the Krasny Luch operation. And neither with the Ilovaisk invasion, which had happened at the end of August. It must have served as one of the supply routes from Russia - Dibrivka - Dmytrivka - Snizhne for the next Debaltseve offensive.


Conclusions
The main effect of the Ukrainian Krasnyi Luch operation was that a lot of border units managed to escape from their trap. As such, one could call it a success. It came at a very high cost, but abandoning the trapped border units would have been much worse.
But freeing the border units does not seem to have been the single goal. Ukraine brought heavy artillery into the area and they did try to cut off the Krasny Luch road. They must have been in a state of euphoria because of the successful progress in the Debaltseve area, that made them decide to push on beyond what could be considered wise.

It must be considered a tactical and strategical error of the Ukrainian army that they had never taken Dmytrivka. They must have been able to relatively easily do this when they traveled along the border in June. They had substantial forces at that moment. Why have all of them depend on a supply line close to Russia's border consisting of two pontoon bridges? Had they liberated Dmytrivka, they would have had a much more solid base to supply them. Marinovka would not have been as vulnerable as it turned out it was.
And in the Krasnyi Luch operation... why did they not take Dmytrivka first? Why spread out all your forces to cut off a distant road, while you know the backdoor is open? Now Dmytrivka served as the base to cut off the Krasnyi Luch/Miusynsk units.
Ukraine would not have won the war with taking Dmytrivka. Like with Lugansk Airport and Debaltseve, the Russians would have taken it anyways. But it would have been much more difficult and at a much higher cost for them.


Also see: Ukrainian language report on the initial capture of Kozhevnya.

Thursday, March 3, 2016

Google Earth now shows major Russian invasion East of Marinovka

Marinovka has been crucial in the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2014 because Ukraine tried to close the porous border with Russia by positioning major army camps along the border, with Marinovka being the 'entrance' for all the other units. Therefore Russia tried to cut Marinovka of in an attempt to isolate all the other units.

For a long time the area east of Marinovka has been a blind spot, because the latest satellite map in Google Earth was from 8-8-2013. Now there is a map from 22-2-2015. This is long after the incident which happened in summer 2014 somewhere between end of July and 15th, but the tracks and even some wrecks are still visible. 

Earlier @finriswolf had published satellite images with a lot of Russian vehicles just before the border. See this article. So we certainly know they were there! Unfortunately these satellite images are not in Google Earth (yet).


First of all, let's have a look at the Ukrainian camps:


Dark blue are the main areas with vehicles.
Blue are the areas with fortified positions, but without vehicles.
Light blue are the area where (a lot of) tracks are visible, indicating it might have been an artillery position.

A lot of tracks can be found in the area:



All the dark blue tracks are only visible on the 2015-image and not on the 2013 image.
The light blue tracks are roads visible on both, but they are obvious connection between the other tracks and therefor must have been used too.
The broad blue line from west to east consists of multiple tracks and is like the aorta along the border that goes to all the other Ukrainian camps as well. It is used to travel and for supplies.
The medium blue line in the middle is the main route from the upper camp to the East.
The small tracks indicate how intensive the area was used/patrolled and these are not even all of them.

In the next images we'll omit the smaller tracks.


Artillery strikes
We can see that the Ukrainian camps have been intensively shelled (purple areas):



We can determine the direction of impact of the craters (yellow lines). Then we can follow the lines until we find an artillery position that may point in the same direction. As such the shellings can be traced back to the following positions:



The most Western one leads to this position:



The size of the burn marks in the field is much larger than from GRAD rockets. The distance is 55 kms. So it must have been a Smerch attack. The direction of the burn marks corresponds.


The middle one is the artillery attack that the US used for publicity, to show that they knew Russia was attacking Ukraine:





On the 2015 Google image, these impacts can hardly be seen anymore:




Also the exact position of the Russian artillery has (unfortunately) faded away:




The Eastern camp has been the largest and most intensely shelled area from multiple directions:



This already removed and geotagged photo shows the destruction in that camp:




Here is another photo in that camp from the LostArmour database:





One of the artillery shellings comes somewhere from the Kuybyshevo area.

Another one can be traced back to a position within the invasion-area on Russian side:



A third direction can not be found on the map (anymore), but we know from a geotagged VK-photo from Ruslan Khafizov that there were GRAD launchers there:






Note how the GRADs are on Kamaz-trucks, instead of the normal Ural-trucks. Kamaz based GRADs are very rare.

The geotagging indeed seems to fit that particular location and the direction the GRADs are pointing to, is towards the Ukrainian camp:



For details on the geolocation, see this InformNapalm article.

The fourth direction comes from the same position where earlier the Zelenopole camp was attacked by Russian GRADs after crossing the border into Ukraine. See this blog.



13 positions can be counted. (The area at the right points towards the Zelenopole camp.) 


Russian camps/positions
On the Russian side we can determine these camps/positions:


Red areas = positions with buildings
Green areas = camps where a lot of cars had been parked.
Dark orange = fortified position with trenches
Light orange = tracks, most often indicating an artillery position
Yellow = GRAD position 


The larger orange area is a bit weird:



There is a 'normal' road/path there crossing the borden (black line), but at the sides there are dozens of tracks. It means it was REALLY busy there at some point...

This location is on the 'official road' with border post into Ukraine.


@finriswolf already showed how vehicles were parked in the Northern green areas, but there are even larger such areas more to the south. This is just a sample of it, to show you the tracks leading into the trees:




So in total there were hundreds of vehicles involved. I estimate that in the lower four camps some 200 vehicles may have been hidden in the trees. 


Russian tracks
When we add the tracks to the areas, we see this:



red lines = unique tracks not seen in the 2013 image
orange line = general roads also seen in 2013 image, but these connect the red tracks.

Here is a sample of these tracks:



A couple of trucks can be seen here, but the tracks are AT THE SIDE of the road, as to spare the road for tracks.

Also at the official border post, the tracks can be seen at the left side of the area, completely bypassing it:




At the border the tracks look like this:



At this point it is not entirely clear anymore if a specific track was used by Ukrainians or Russians, or both. Nevertheless, the tracks originating in Russia leading out of it, MUST have been from Russian vehicles. Furthermore, the vertical tracks most likely are from Russians and the horizontal ones most likely from Ukrainians.
If we add a couple of tracks that are almost certain from Ukrainian vehicles, we get this:




Wrecks
Next thing we can do is show the positions where there are wrecks. These come either from the satellite image itself (yellow marker with ?), or from the lostarmour.info database (a Russian propaganda site; vehicles markers). 



Here is a detailed view of what might be wrecks:




Here is another one:



From the satellite image itself it is not very clear that there is a wreck there. But here is a photo from it:




This is a Russian BMD-2 just having crossed the border and being destroyed.

North-east from this one, there is a BMP-2:




Another detail of what might be wrecks:




Ukrainian shelling
Interesting detail is this: one small area that has been shelled, comes from Ukrainian positions south of Marinovka:



It means they have tried to counterattack the incoming invasion. On the larger map we can see that it is on the route from the border crossings to the Ukrainian camps.



All the tracks seem to come from one direction south:



Although it is hard to trace the tracks all the way back, it is clear from what direction they come: Russia's main hub into Ukraine, the huge Golovinka camp.



Russian soldier Ruslan Khafizovs photos.
Ruslan Khafizov has a geotagged photo in his album with the GRADs in Kryukovo, which is a village next to this route:







He has another one more north:






Ruslan Khafizov has a geotagged photo in his album from the Golovinka camp:





Yet another geotagged photo shows Ruslan in another village nearby the invasion area:






These are Ruslan's geotagged photos relative to the invasion route:




Ruslan's photos had been uploaded in sept/okt 2014. Just after the Russian invasion.

Later Kamaz-based GRADs have been seen INSIDE Ukraine, in Donetsk and south of Torez.



Main route into Ukraine
Let's have a closer look at the smaller 'main road' to and from the Northern Ukrainian camp.

At it's most left/West position, where it enters Dibrivka, it looks like this:



As can be seen an entire new path/road has been made through the field, with sand/debris being pushed to the sides.

This is true for the entire length of this path:





The road ends (or begins) here, where it joins the other tracks going East:



But note this: the main traffic/path goes SOUTHWARDS from here and not EASTWARD (see inset with red path).
South is either the official road to/from Russia, or it connects with the Ukrainian 'aorta', going back West. Why would most traffic drive East just to drive West again after a while?

And also note this: there are four armored vehicles standing there in an obvious way. And it is 22-2-2015. Either these are wrecks, but then why are they not in the LostArmour database? Or they are there because on this date it is STILL an army checkpoint somehow...

Now we must connect the dots...
  1. We know there were hundreds of vehicles.
  2. We have seen that there was massive traffic at the official border crossing. Where did they all go? North, East, or West? 
  3. At the crossing just north of this road, most traffic went eastwards.
Conclusion: the larger part of the invasion force, including supply trucks etcetera, took this route to Dibrivka and then to Dmytrivka:






Conclusion
Another part of the Russian invasions into Ukraine has been clarified more now. Others were the Ilovaisk massacre and the Lugansk Airport attack.
The Ukrainian border camps had not just been destroyed by artillery only. By this invasion the other border camps where cut off and hundreds of Russian vehicles flooded into Ukraine. This lead to the fall and final destruction of these other border camps. And it also was the prelude to and it set the stage for the two other major invasions.

The Golovinka base was the starting point of the operation. From there hundreds of vehicles drove north and set up camp 7 kms from the Ukrainian border. In the previous weeks the Ukrainian camps had already been shelled intensively.
On August 12th the Ukrainian army had established a break-through north of Dmytrivka and had been driving all the way up to Krasnyi Luch, leaving the Marinovka-Dibrivka area vulnerable. See this report.
That must have been the moment the Russians invaded into Ukraine, to take the Ukrainian positions, to chase them and cut them of.

This map was drawn back then:


Some initial battle groups took several points to cross the border simultaneously and remove all resistance. After securing a bridgehead the larger part of the vehicles took the easier route along the road and headed Northwest to Dmytrivka.


Also see: guided tour through Marinovka area after Russian army paid a visit...


UPDATE
This invasion was prepared and happened while Putin was distracting the world with his Humanitarian White Truck Charade. See this blog.

Interesting detail is that during that time a convoy with more than hundred vehicles was spotted on the road to Novoshakhtinsk.

See this videos:



We had never been able to determine whether this convoy indeed crossed the border at the nearest Dolzhanskyi border crossing. But now that we know of the Marinovka-invasion with hundreds of vehicles involved, the convoy might have been headed there.
According to Google it is exactly on the shortest route from the Rostov army camp to the Marinovka-invasion-camp:



That might have been one day of traveling for a convoy like that. The video says to have been filmed on 10-8-214. It was uploaded on 12-8-2014. That was just before the invasion and thus fits the time schedule perfectly.

The Rostov satellite images indeed show hundreds of vehicles disappear in that timeframe:




And this is interesting... North of Dmytrivka BTR-82 had been spotted (among other sophisticated Russian equipment by the way):



These BTR-82s had never seen before in Ukraine at that date.

It turns out the Novoshakhtinsk-convoy had BTR-82s among them too:



More on the differences between BTR-80 and BTR-82, see this article.
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