Thursday, October 30, 2014

Russia is shifting the ceasefire borders deeper into Ukraine

First we got messages that 'checkpoint #32' was encircled, in trouble etcetera:
Then the soldiers there left the post:

Leaving behind an intact BTR:

Then we learn that the battle goes on at the new front line:

And see what happens now:

But that's not the only thing:
It also happens near Horlivka

Which is extremely dangerous:

Near Dokuchajevsk:

And Talakivka is under heavy artillery attack for days now until the Ukrainians abandon their positions and the Russians can move in:

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Russian(-backed) soldiers fight among each other in Donetsk

Four videos appeared from CCTV cameras capturing the fighting amongst the Russian(-backed) gangs in Donetsk were some guys got severely beaten up and one with (deadly) head wound.

I put the videos in one bigger one and aligned them, so it can be much clearer seen what had happened.

 Welcome to the street justice of Barbarossiya!!!!

The location is here:

Google maps link.

This is the order of events:

3:41 gangs meet friendly
4:51 fighting starts
5:44 another guy #2 beaten to the ground, kicked on the head
7:59 gang comes back
8:19 another man #3 is beaten
8:35 two guys with a gun arrive
8:48 guy tries to grab the gun, they walk outside view
9:10 guy with gun comes back
9:27 two man grab the gun
9:38 gunman #4 taken down and beaten
10:30 behind the car a guy is kicked (hardly visible)
10:33 a shot is fired, a guy is hit by shrapnel #5
11:40 yet another guy #6 gets beaten, they walk off screen
11:53 a lot of shots are fired
11:59 the guy is severely beaten with the gun
13:00 guy #7 gets stripped of his army gear 
13:37 it seems 'gunman' is also taken to the bench
13:53 a third man is taken to the bench
14:08 the third man can go, has nothing to do with it
14:09 the guys are beaten with the back of the gun and kicked
14:45 a guy walks up with a pistol and shoots in the air
14:52 he points the gun at one of the attackers 
15:04 the guy who was had shrapnel in the head #5 also comes to help his mates
15:20 a fourth gang member comes running in and overrules the pistol-guy who gets severely beaten with the gun
16:02 they managed to grab the pistol
16:27 a guy gets hit straight in the face with the barrel of the gun
17:06 the gang walks off screen with gun forward (obviously because they are threatened)
17:57 a gang member walks in with his gun AND a machine gun (likely taken away from somebody)
19:59 the gang comes back 
20:07 man with telephone and gun #8 walks in
20:20 #8 threatens the gang member
22:04 he comes too close, guy grabs his barrel, they struggle 
22:59 now (after the phone call?) #8 threatens the guy at the bench!!!
23:20 they fight over the gun
23:25 finally kicked on the head guy #2 gets up
23:35 a guy #9 joins the quarrel, he seems to have a pistol
23:41 gang member with a shotgun comes in
23:45 he shoots just over the head of his mate
23:50 #9 gets his pistol taken away
24:02 two more guys get pushed to the bench
24:38 pistol guy #9 gets pushed to the bench
24:51 gang member shoots pistol to the ground
25:09 they start kicking and beating the five guys to the extreme
25:16 gang member gets rid of the magazine of the pistol and starts hitting the skulls of the victims with the back of it,
25:50 second guy of the row bleeds extensively from his head (broken skull?)
29:02 one member comes back to the victims, #9 argues and is allowed to sit on the bench
30:06 a car arrives
30:33 some new gang members comes in
30:48 guy #10 gets pushed into view
31:08 on the background the guy with machinegun AGAIN quarrels with someone over it.
31:15 #9 is allowed to. Maybe he just tried to save the victims, but has nothing to do with them.
31:30 guy #10 is sent away/off screen
31:55 two more guys arrive near the supermarket door with automatic guns taking position, but nothing happens 
32:38 quarreling within the gang
33:57 one of the victims stands up and start arguing
34:09 boy #10 walks into view again
34:15 another victim stands up and checks the bleeding last one on the ground
34:25 some member decide to go shopping in the supermarket
35:09 he still lifts his head
35:20 medics arrive?
35:40 again arguing within the gang. 
35:59 the bleeding victim is taken away
36:30 the main attacker is sent away
37:30 again arguing, threatening with guns
37:54 the blueish jacket man (previous with machine gun) gets his gun taken away (again?)
38:17 he does not have a gun anymore

Do we really want these guys to take over and rule Ukraine?

Monday, October 27, 2014

Who wants to help me buy Panorama Maker 6.0

Arcsoft has a nice little program that can make Panorama photos out of video. See

It takes the video as a source, you can select an in and out point and then it calculates one picture out of it, merging the different frames into one big photo.

I downloaded the trial version and used it several times already:

It is a real timesaver, because the alternative is to manually copy a lot of different screenshots into photoshop and run the scripts there to align and blend them.

It is essential for geolocating to have a clear image of the environment. When people record events with mobile phones, often the field of view is very narrow. To be able to quickly make a panorama photo from that footage helps tremendously to geolocate it.

For instance, take a look at this:

The field of view is so narrow that it is hard to see where this is. It is a pain to Photoshop a clear picture from this. It's half a minute with the software...

My trial version has expired now. I would like to buy the software. I am doing this as a volunteer. Who wants to help me buy it? It's 80 dollars. You little contribution will make it possible.

You can use the Paypall donate button at the upper right side and give 'Panorama Maker' as a comment.

Thank you :D.

Your (twitter) name and contribution will appear here below (if you want to) to show how you helped:

Ott M. - 5 euro
Lukasz R. - 10 euro
Mykhailo T. - 5 euro
Nigel G - 20 euro
Anton - 15 euro
Ludmila P. - 30 euros
Oleksandr K. - 20 euros

Ok, the amount is in. Thanks al lot! I bought the software. Don't need more.
But you may always buy me a beer of course ;-).

Russia shelled Ukraine with Smerch rockets FROM RUSSIAN TERRITORY

This video is a mini documentary about a Smerch attack on a Ukrainian camp FROM RUSSIAN TERRITORY.

The location is Dmytrivka, north of Lugansk (not to be confused with the Dmytrivka near Marinovka border crossing!). This had happened on the evening/night from 3rd to 4th September, but the videos were uploaded later and did not get much attention at all.
Yet the incident remains very important for several reasons.

This screenshot shows burned down tents and beds:

The sheds in that screenshot, can also be seen on this map:

This screenshot shows the location of destroyed vehicles:

On the background of this screenshot the same sheds can be seen:

The tree in the middle of the field in this screenshot:

can be seen on this map too:

Besides the tents, there was another position with a lot of vehicles.

It this screenshot an unexploded Smerch rocket can be seen:

Now pay attention to what the woman is saying in the previous and next screenshot:

The church is also indicated on the map above.

At 3:19 the woman talks about the direction from which the rockets came. She says she could tell, because she could see the smoke trails of the rockets.

This is when she points in the direction of Lugansk:

This is when she points in the direction of Russia:

On the map that looks like this:

It is some 45 kms to Lugansk or the Russian border. Max range for Smerch is 70 kms.

There is another video about the same location:

The Ukrainian soldiers talk about the direction the rocket came from. These are the things they say:
  • This is Russian URAGAN (Tornado) MRLS shell w appropriate serial number.
  • This is only one of the shells that hit the camp.
  • This is unexploded.
  • This is the same shell that Russian TV stations on news showed "how Ukraine army shelled peaceful Ukraine village".
  • To secure punitive army narrative.
  • They are mocking Russian journalists claiming that they clearly lack knowledge of physics or if even know then they bend the laws of physics on purpose making these shells like a magical one who make magical twists in sky before exploding.
  • Per trajectory it's is evident it didn't come from Luhansk but from Russian territory.
  • The number he shows at fins are manufacturer number indicating whose rocket it is.

When we look at their EXACT location where they are standing, we get this:

This Panoramio photo shows these two sheds:

The red x is the location of the rocket.

This screenshot shows that it is at some distance from the dirt road next to it and it is pointing almost perpendicular to it:

That makes the map look like this:

But note how the direction of impact of this rockets points to THE SOUTH!! Which is Lugansk!!! And not Russia...

Are all these people lying?!!!

The answer to this can be seen in the first video around 8 minutes. There the same rocket can be seen. This is a reconstruction of several screenshots:

The rocket had hit the car and went right through the side of the cabin. That changed its course before it hit and entered the ground:

Red line = true direction & trajectory of the rocket
Orange line = how it ended up after it had hit the car.

A look inside the car shows it indeed could not have come from the Lugansk direction:

If it would have come from Lugansk, the hole in the roof should have been a lot more towards the middle.

The red line indeed shows a direction coming from Russia.

The ATO map from 3rd september shows that attack too.

Russia had been destroying a Ukrainian camp 35 kms OUTSIDE the conflict zone, shooting Smerch rockets FROM RUSSIAN TERRITORY into Ukraine.

By what the Ukrainian soldiers are saying, Russian TV uses such attacks as examples of how Ukraine shells and destroys its own villages. (Maybe somebody can find the video of that?)

It is clear that the unexploded rocket came from Russian direction. It is a rare case where it had changed course because of the car that it had hit first.
But this also means we have to be careful with too quick conclusions based on the impact direction. We HAVE to consider the possibility that rockets or shells hit something else first and thus changing course before final impact. This doesn't make life easier for us... :-(.

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Russia brings in new batches of volunteer-mercenaries to die at Donetsk airport

With the inability of the Russian mercenary proxies to capture Donetsk Airport for 154 days in a row now, and causing hundreds of casualties among them, Russia has decided to send Russian Army specialists together with the new batches of men and armor that have to give it another try.

The siege of Stalingrad lasted 155 days... Just one day to go Cyborgs!!!!

Take a look at the new videos that emerged today...

Fresh batch of Russian mercenary-volunteers arived with new toys:

Instruction from the Russian specialists:

First try with the new IFV:

Second try:

Instruction how to shoot on the rooftop:

How to shoot an RPG (with thermobaric warhead) from the roof:

The other guy has to learn how to shoot too:

Ok, instructor showing how you do it:

Oh wait... I've been told these are videos from end of September! But they are published today. So it means the situation now is so desperate that they can only launch new attacks with old videos!!!

Do you notice how in these videos like in the many previous ones nobody EVER shoots back? They just shoot at buildings to make a cool video... loosers!

On a more serious note: the first video IS recent... there WILL be new attacks on the airport. It is a bottleneck for Russia. They MUST have it.

This is the map by the way:

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Google Earth shows Russian BUK that shot down Ukrainian AN-26 on July 14th

Google Earth has been very revealing lately because it updated a lot of areas with maps from August and September, thus showing positions and effects of the war between Russian and Ukraine.

On July 14th a Ukrainian cargo-plane AN-26 was shot down. It had been dropping supplies to the Ukrainian units positioned at the borders and was about to return back home. It was shot down by a SAM which was recorded on video. By geolocating that video it was possible to determine the approximate area where the missile was launched.

See this blog.

This is the map drawn back then:

The discussion at that time was whether this BUK was on Ukrainian territory or on Russian territory, or whether Russia had shot it down or the Russian proxies.
Based on the geolocated video I argued it was on Russian territory. I even showed areas were it could have been positioned:

With the updated maps I started to look there of course... and found it on the August 8th map!

Two vehicles can be seen here. A big one (left) and a small one (right). The big one is the BUK of course and the small one may be a jeep or scout vehicle.

Especially when compared to the map of May 15th, the differences can clearly be seen:

The 8-8 map shows tracks, the area shows erosion from the use and clearly the two vehicles are present now.

On a larger scale it looks like this:

As can be seen this is EXACTLY on one of the predicted locations.

The conclusion is: RUSSIA shot down this AN-26 FROM RUSSIAN TERRITORY. 
It is the first recorded incident of a direct attack from Russia onto Ukraine.
On July 11th there was an attack on a Ukrainian camp near Zelenopole with GRADs which destroyed the camp. It is SUSPECTED that this has been done from Russian territory too, but it could not be proven so far. See this blog.
On July 16th it was recorded on video and proven that Russian GRADs attacked Ukraine from Gukovo. See this blog.

As argued in this blog, the whole idea that the Russian proxies (also called rebels or 'separatists' by Western media) had captured a Ukrainian BUK is a fraud. They did not have a (functional) BUK.
The only thing capable of shooting the AN-26 down is this Russian BUK here.

A couple of days later on July 17th ANOTHER RUSSIAN BUK, that was especially driven into Ukraine for the occasion, shot down the civilian airliner MH17.

Here are some more interesting things that can be discovered on Google Earth about the Russian war:

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Russian Uragan/Smerch/Tornado team caught on satellite images in Donetsk?

This satellite image from the 19th of June:

shows a Russian artillery team working with an unusual type of vehicle. Some vehicles can be identified as trucks, but others are longer, elongated and small and irregular. These are definitely NOT GRAD rocket systems. They look more like Uragan, Tornado or Hurricane launchers and loaders.

Google maps link.

Let's have a closer look:

Clearly a truck can be seen. Then there is one that looks like a crane or bulldozer with a very distinct shadow as if something is raised up in the air (#1).
The other two vehicles are in a row as if one is towing the other, or it is loading (something like rockets into) the other (#2 and #3).
The little one on the right may either be a jeep or just a car.

The approximate length of #1 (as indicated on the image and by using the Google Earth measuring tool) is some 10 meters.
Length of #2 is some 7 meters.
#3 is some 8,5 meters
(These lengths are a little bit arbitrary, since one pixel is some 0,5 meters at this scale... but still it is an indication.)

This image shows two more vehicles that look a lot like #1:

Measured approximate length:
#4 is 8-9 meters
#5 is either 8 or 11 meters

#6 and #7 both seem to be some 8 meters. The other one is a truck.

For comparison, here are some photos of the different MLRS:

GRAD 122 mm

Uragan/Hurricane 220 mm

Smerch 300mm

Tornado 122/220/300 mm

Wikipedia on GRAD
Wikipedia on Uragan
Wikipedia on Smerch
Wikipedia on Tornado

GRAD is just too small. We know the Russians use 220 mm cluster ammunition, so it must be Uragan/Hurricane or maybe even Smerch. Tornado is the newest system that would replace all of the previous systems. It is unlikely that at this moment they would used the newest toy already. Yet the VERY small launch system that appears to be present on the satellite images may indicate otherwise. It is possible that the Russian use this war against Ukraine as a test-ground for their new systems of course.

Alternative: SAU howitzers
This is how a Russian Howitzer looks like:

These dimensions just do not seem to fit very well.

Obviously when a team like that operates on a location, this will leave distinctive tracks on the ground, which are visible on the satellite images. Have a look at the image from May 7th and you'll see there are no tracks or traces like that:

This is the image from June 19th:

This one from July 21st:

As can be seen, the area has been used much more intense, so this team has been visiting this site more than once.

But scanning the surroundings of this location reveals even more:

There are five to six other locations where the same track patterns appear on the satellite map of July 21st for the first time that look as intensively used as the first one.

UPDATE: Alternative two
An attentive responder to this blog pointed out that what happened above may look like construction work on the power lines!!!
Ok, double check...

Indeed, the first pole seems to be complete renewed and looks silver/white now.

The second pole is completely removed!!!

And more poles are removed. This is the total image:

First one renewed, four poles removed, activity on the last two, but nothing seemed to have happened there.

Ok...!!! My bad. This was construction on the electricity lines. I didn't know they just keep doing that in war time.


On the map of August 9th some little new track appears, but WITH a vehicle:

This vehicle also is between 8-9 meters. But now that the previous vehicles turned out to be from construction work, it is hard to tell what this exactly is. I'll leave it up to you for now...

When scanning the area for such a smaller set of tracks, we can spot two more such locations:

That makes the total map look like this:

On a larger scale:

Red circle = MLRS area
Yellow line is direction to airport - 17 kms

From this firing position basically all of Donetsk can be reached. Donetsk Airport is at some 17 kms distance.

Of course this does not mean MLRS-teams are not active on other dates and other locations as well. They are active all the time. For instance, have a look at this image from Sept 3rd:

Do you recognize something?
Same patterns, same intensive use of the location. This time: no electricity poles nearby...!!!

This location is here on the map:

Such a location can easily be used to fire from a SW direction onto the supermarket, bus station and Red cross area (red lines) where we know attacks have occured, but TO MAKE IT LOOK LIKE if it comes from the Ukrainian held territory of Novomykhailivka.

The distance to these location is 14 kms and more.

In fact, these are all the SW firing positions I have been able to find up to the Sept 3rd map:

Most of them are based on similar unusual track patterns that could be found, but some are based on geolocated videos and photos. The white markers indicate uncertain, very small areas that may have been used by a mortar team or maybe a GRAD.

I am sure that new images of later date will reveal even more positions Westward from these.

Unfortunately I have captured a (rare) case of construction work this time East of Makeevka :D.
Even then it can not be excluded that a single Rocket Launcher (other than GRAD) HAD been recorded on the 9th of August at that location. Two more positions could be spotted between August 9th and September 3rd.

There are enough tracks and patterns that DO show fire positions and artillery activity. Especially when we have the combination of a geolocated video and tracks on satellite images.
From the multiple track patterns like that South up to the South-West of Donetsk we can be sure artillery teams operated from these locations too.

Do you appreciate this and other articles? Do you think it is important that this information is published?
I'm not working for a newspaper or magazine. If you sponsor me, you help me to keep this blog up and running.
See the Paypal Donate-button in the top right side of this blog or subscribe in the About-me-section.

Blog Archive