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Showing posts with label Minsk II. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Minsk II. Show all posts

Monday, March 9, 2015

Things Russia can still do during a 'cease-fire'

For Russia a cease-fire is only just another phase in their hybrid war. People may have the false impression that everything is quiet now and maybe peace will settle down. This is an illusion. Russia has not fulfilled its bigger plans with Ukraine yet.
These are the things Russia can still do during a 'cease-fire'

1. Attack on all fronts without the risk if a (big) counter attack!

 2. Fool OSCE (and the West) 


 3. Withdraw your troops (which means ROTATE them)
Russia can not keep the same troops fighting all the time. It must rotate troops and get fresh ones on the battlefield. What better time to do this then during a 'cease-fire' without any risks?

4. Regroup
Russian hybrid army has had SEVERE losses in manpower as well as vehicles during the battle of Debaltseve and Donetsk Airport. They need to regroup and reorganise these forces. And they need to evaluate their performance and make plans for their next move.


5. Train (new batches of) fighters.

What better opportunity than to train the new waves of  fighters that will flood Ukraine?

6. Detonate bombs on specific targets in the next cities on the most-wanted list.


 7. Repair damaged and captured tanks


8. Consolidate your position in other annexed territories

 9. Steal anything of value in the occupied territory


10. Kill a political opponent that was about to reveal how Russian troops are involved in East-Ukraine

 11. Solve internal problems with the criminals that you gave weapons and now try to settle issues amongst each other with those.

12. Try to prevent the West from arming Ukraine
Minsk II came WHILE the US was about to decide to arm Ukraine. Since there is something like decrease in hostilities, the West is tempted to postpone that decision.
As soon as the decision is made NOT to arm Ukraine, hostilities can intensify again.


For Russia, while waging a hybrid war, a cease-fire is not just the end of hostilities with the possibility on lasting peace. It is just another phase in the war with its own opportunities and possibilities.
All the things mentioned above are clear indications the war is NOT OVER YET.

Meanwhile the whole conflict destabilizes Ukraine, with prices going through the roof and the risk of a financial default, which is almost as good as a surrender right away.

The West must use this period to use all non-military means to isolate Russia until it withdraws from East-Ukraine AND Crimea:
I only wished these were more than just words and empty threats, because that's what they unfortunately are.

Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Debaltseve has fallen - Russian generals coordinated it

Map of Debaltseve area yesterday:
This video shows how Ukrainian soldiers get captured in Eastern part of Debaltseve, while battle is going on:



There is only ONE guy in this video that COULD be a POW:


Because his face looks beaten up. That's standard procedure for the Russian( proxie)s.

This video shows how these POWs are taken away:



The location is here.

There is not ONE single Ukrainian mark on those soldiers. They are allowed to carry bags. They do NOT look beaten up. They are treated quite nice. They don't look scared or demoralized. They look clean. They don't look like they have been fighting for days and days in a row.
So this very much looks like a staged scene as happens so often on Russian TV.


Note this... there is a Russian general on the scene:

You can find more info on him in this blog.

Oh yes there was some kind of agreement that this guy would work on a 'peace plan' together with Ukraine. See this video. But that is TOTALLY INSANE! You don't invite the enemy that wants to TAKE OVER your country INTO your country to work together with him.
And this is what you get when you do: he is overseeing the takeover of Debaltseve and the taking prisoners of Ukrainian soldiers (even though this video is staged, in reality he DOES do this too of course).

This general Lentsov is the commander in charge of all forces in East-Ukraine. He works together with general Vyaznikov who is on the Ukrainian side in Soledar (also a INCOMPREHENSIBLE thing).

This is the other guy with him:
He is supposedly from Lugansk and has several online 'profiles' that say so. But he is first seen in East Ukraine when the huge Russian take-over army entered Lugansk. See this article. This 'army' was send to settle all the in-fighting between local warlords and the disobedience towards the Kremlin. See for instance this article.
So in my opinion he is a RUSSIAN colonel with a constructed local profile as to make it appear this man is a rebel.








In this blog I warned for and Ilovaisk 2.0 at Debaltseve.
@MrKovalenko is a press and communications officer in the Ukrainian army:
Happily he and his men got out save:

I'm also happy that even though Debaltseve had to be given up to the Russian aggression, it did not turn into the massacre it COULD have been...

Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:

Saturday, February 14, 2015

Russia hacked National Guard of Ukraine-website and posted a fake "Yarosh offensive article"












Meanwhile:


Euromaidan also has a page about this.


CLEARLY Russia wants to keep on fighting and is looking for an excuse to blame Ukraine for breaking the cease-fire. (Actually exactly the same as after Minsk I).

Don't fall for this guys... You should be smarter than this!



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Thursday, February 12, 2015

Why 'peace-deals' benefit the Kremlin

It is IMPOSSIBLE to have EVERY single checkpost along the front line fortified so much that it can withstand weeks of shelling followed by concentrated attacks with tanks and heavy weapons.

A GOOD military defence strategy is what we will call the block-and-fist strategy, like ancient warriors: a shield in one arm and a sword in the other.
The 'block' stands for the defence. The 'fist' for the strike back.

A thousand soldiers with shields in a row can be defeated by just TEN, if their strategy is to 'only defend' (and never strike back). The ten just pick out a weak spot and hammer it with their swords until it falls. Then they can regroup, drink some tea and pick another one.



Ukraine needs a defense line and behind it FISTs, that is: strike-back-forces. It means when a checkpoint is attacked, it immediately triggers a strong force behind it, to either jump into the defence or counterattack on another area:
Blue line = Defense line
Red line = enemy positions
Blue circles = fortified positions, checkpoints
Blue square = 'strike back force'
Yellow arrow = enemy attack on a position
Light blue arrows = jump into defense and/or counterattack as response to attack

All peace-deals so far just mean that Ukraine can never use it's 'fist'-option. It can NEVER strike back. That means the power of ANY defense is taken away. They just have so sit and wait and see what happens next. And what happens next, we know: yet another checkpoint falls and another and another. OF COURSE!!!! That's what you get with such a strategy.


Effectively a peace-plan benefits Russia: it takes the power out of Ukraine's defense.


UPDATE 17-2


up
Posted by Ukraine@war at No comments:

Minsk 2.0 Another failure?

You can find an unofficial translation of the Minsk 2.0 agreements here.


Remember how Aidar units got ambushed WHILE RETREATING FROM THE AREA when Minsk 1.0 started? See this blog. This will happen to Debaltseve too.
Meanwhile:








That just means border control is NEVER going to happen!

Yet Western media report like this:




Conclusion
This is a farce. It will be used by Russia and it's proxies to their advantage. That means: Ukraine can not attack back. Yet THEY can freely attack and advance where they like.


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Monday, February 9, 2015

GRAPHIC: while the world is doing bla bla Putin tightens his bloody grip on Debaltseve pocket










From the archives on Steinmeier bla bla:


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