Monday, March 9, 2015

Things Russia can still do during a 'cease-fire'

For Russia a cease-fire is only just another phase in their hybrid war. People may have the false impression that everything is quiet now and maybe peace will settle down. This is an illusion. Russia has not fulfilled its bigger plans with Ukraine yet.
These are the things Russia can still do during a 'cease-fire'

1. Attack on all fronts without the risk if a (big) counter attack!

2. Fool OSCE (and the West) 

3. Withdraw your troops (which means ROTATE them)
Russia can not keep the same troops fighting all the time. It must rotate troops and get fresh ones on the battlefield. What better time to do this then during a 'cease-fire' without any risks?

4. Regroup
Russian hybrid army has had SEVERE losses in manpower as well as vehicles during the battle of Debaltseve and Donetsk Airport. They need to regroup and reorganise these forces. And they need to evaluate their performance and make plans for their next move.

5. Train (new batches of) fighters.

What better opportunity than to train the new waves of  fighters that will flood Ukraine?

6. Detonate bombs on specific targets in the next cities on the most-wanted list.

7. Repair damaged and captured tanks

8. Consolidate your position in other annexed territories

9. Steal anything of value in the occupied territory

10. Kill a political opponent that was about to reveal how Russian troops are involved in East-Ukraine

11. Solve internal problems with the criminals that you gave weapons and now try to settle issues amongst each other with those.

12. Try to prevent the West from arming Ukraine
Minsk II came WHILE the US was about to decide to arm Ukraine. Since there is something like decrease in hostilities, the West is tempted to postpone that decision.
As soon as the decision is made NOT to arm Ukraine, hostilities can intensify again.

For Russia, while waging a hybrid war, a cease-fire is not just the end of hostilities with the possibility on lasting peace. It is just another phase in the war with its own opportunities and possibilities.
All the things mentioned above are clear indications the war is NOT OVER YET.

Meanwhile the whole conflict destabilizes Ukraine, with prices going through the roof and the risk of a financial default, which is almost as good as a surrender right away.

The West must use this period to use all non-military means to isolate Russia until it withdraws from East-Ukraine AND Crimea:
I only wished these were more than just words and empty threats, because that's what they unfortunately are.

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