Monday, November 30, 2015

Determining the crash site of Russian SU-24 shot down by Turkey

On November 24th 2015 Turkey shot down a Russian SU-24, because it had violated Turkey's airspace.
On the same day a video was released of rebels destroying a Russian MI8 helicopter with a TOW.

In this blog we'll geolocate the videos and crash sites.

This video from the Russian ANNA News explains what happened (beware of propaganda/lies):

In the footage a bridge can be seen with a road on the background:

The bridge is likely for a train. A highway-bridge would be much larger.

On Google Maps it shows there is only one railway in that area (red line):

Following that railway in Google Earth, we can see there are two bridges that look like the one in the video. Bridge #2 matches the situation seen in the video.

Now we determine the approximate angle and direction of the camera in that shot. We can simply draw a line in GE starting at the bridge at an angle and look down that line to see when and where the shot matches.
It turns out they are on this hill, with the roof of a house just in front of them:

From here we can determine most of the other shots and directions and we get this situation map:

There is a fire on the opposite hillside (and quite far from the helicopter position too):

The helicopter is parked outside a fenced terrain with a house:

There is another camera/crew filming from another hill:

Red circle = parked helicopter.

Now that we know the position of the helicopter, we can go to the footage of the rebels shooting the helicopter with a TOW:

This shot shows the helicopter:

We look at the backside of the heli and on the right side we can see the wall almost in line with the view.
It means we can draw a line on GE again into that direction. Along that line the TOW-position must be found.
Furthermore the sound of the TOW starts at 1:22 and the hit comes at 1:33. That's after 11 seconds. From wikipedia we can learn that a TOW travels at max 278-320 meters per second. So the distance should be max 3-3,5 kms.

Along that line and within the max distance we can see a hill with houses as we saw in the video too:

These house can indeed be matched:

A small path, as seen in the video can also be seen, so it must have been positioned on this path:

Since this point of view is EXACTLY in the opposite direction of camera two in the ANNA video, it might very well have been possible that they filmed this location.
And it turns out they did:

In the beginning ANNA News filmed the smoke plume of the crashed SU-24:

This was filmed from a slightly higher position. But in GE we can match the view with the video like this:

Then we draw a line starting from the camera position towards the smoke plume (blue line). It simply means the SU-24 must have crashed somewhere along that line.

Turkey has released a map with the alleged route of the SU-24. In Google Earth we can make an overlay and put this map to it's right position:

IF... the Turkeys data is correct, we now have a rather narrow area where the SU-24 might have crashed.
Maybe now we can match any of the other videos...

This one seems to have been shot quite close:

So, in GE we turn in 3D view around the probable crash site until we find something that looks like this:

It is not even THAT difficult, because most point of views don't look like this AT all. One hint that helps to narrow it down is that the smoke plume seems to drift to the right, whereas in the ANNA video it drifted to the left. It means this was filmed from opposite direction.

Here we find a match:

At first I thought the shot was taken from the Turkish-Syrian border. But then 'Samir' pointed out there is a popular spot where photographer come to shoot, which turned out to be EXACTLY in the same line of sight:

Now that we have a second direction, we can see where these two lines cross and THAT will be the crash site (within some margins of error):

This happens to match with the Turkish data:

All this means the pilots must have ejected somewhere in this (red) area:

And also the rebels firing at them and capturing (at least) one, must have been somewhere around there.

Ejected pilots
This video shows rebels shooting at the ejected pilots:

The jet appears on the left:

It flies almost overhead and then to the right:

It falls down at the right side:

Behind this tree:

It seems as if they are on a road and looking at the treeline left of the road. And they are on a slope that's going upwards facing the jet path.

Since we know the flightpath and the crash site of the jet, the cameraman must have been north of it (somewhere in red ellipse):

GE shows that the roads in this area are indeed on a similar upward slope:

In the next shot we see the parachutes coming down. The tree is the same one as the tree just visible on the right in the previous shot:

That gives us the right orientation, and it means the camera is facing Westward:

But now we can see that there is a road at the RIGHT side of this tree.Could there be double parallel roads?

In this screenshot something not natural is visible, what could be the roof of a building:

This screenshot shows the parked cars are at an angle with the road:

Either they are on a turn there, or at some crossing.

This screenshot shows they are on an asphalt road, so we can exclude dirt roads and paths:

The only building downhill in the selected area is here:

If this would be the right spot, their position would have to be here:

At that location, we find find all the elements we have seen in the video and discussed:

We see the parallel 'roads/lanes, the 'crossing', the trees etc. So this must be the spot.

In one of the screenshots above, a rebel is lying on the road, shooting at the pilot. He is in line with the road. That gives us the direction of one of the pilots.
The other one can be seen here:

He is more to the left.

The pilots should have landed somewhere along these two blue lines:

Captured Pilot
This video shows one of the captured and dead pilots:

This screenshot shows a rebel on the road with a very clear shadow:

The time the jet was shot down, was at 9:25 am. With we can see how at that time the direction of the shadows would be (the yellow line):

We need to find a piece of road where the direction of the yellow line falls at an angle as seen in the screenshot.

Furthermore in this screenshot we can see what could be a house:

Since there is only one house downhill in that area, this must be the location:

This location matches all the features seen in the video.
Whether the pilot landed at that location, or if he was brought there is not clear.

With a very high degree of certainty we have determined the SU-24 crash site. This is in line with the Turkish data. It shows the Russians have been lying about their route. The Russian crash site is nowhere in sight here.
With the Turkish data being correct, it also shows the Russian planes INDEED have been violating Turkish airspace.

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Russia/Assad NEEDS ISIS to survive

Without ISIS, the world would simply want to take out/remove Assad. And it might have done so already.
But because of ISIS, it is not that simple. Basically ISIS is a Russian/Assad created enemy to prevent the world from picking on Assad. To understand this, please see this excellent video explaining the complex situation in Syria:

These screenshots tell my point:

It says: "Extremists from Syria and from around the region start travelling to Syria to join the rebels. Assad actually encourages this by releasing jihadist prisoners to tinge the rebellion with extremism and make it harder for foreigners to back them."

Despite his extensive atrocities, Assad was not winning and he was losing ground. Putin jumps in and assists. But he is NOT targeting ISIS as he said he wanted to do:

Why not?
Russia & Assad do not want to take out ISIS. It is a divide-and-conquer-strategy. Keep the parties divided and thus you can rule all of them, including the West.

Now get this: the KGB invented International Islamic Terrorism...

If that's too much for you to read, read this:

Understand that Putin has been a KGB-officer for 16 years. It was also during HIS service that the KGB invented/promoted International Islamic Terrorism.
As a president he has learned from Chechnya that you can better pay terrorists to work for you than to fight them yourself. In Donbas Ukraine he has sent thousands of Chechen Islam Terrorists/mercenaries to fight his battles and die for him. All sent by his ally Kadyrov.

Now with the Paris Attacks, Putin's lies that he is in Syria to fight ISIS, suddenly find fertile ground:
It is really incomprehensible that Western political leaders want to do 'business' with Putin. The Kremlin is mafia. Russia benefits from conflicts in the world. Selling oil and weapons are their main source of income. They invaded Ukraine and annexed parts of it and they are not finished yet. They do the same with other neighbours. They keep butcher-Assad in the saddle so the Syria-conflict cannot come to an end. Russia is the State Sponsor of International Terrorism. How can you ally with this man?

His air raids in Syria are targeting markets, hospitals, schools, a bread factory... all this to make the population flee to Europe. He uses refugees as a weapon in a hybrid war against Europe/America. 

And now Hollande wants us to work with him against ISIS?

ISIS is a monster created, fed and manipulated by Assad/Putin to fight the West. Putin does not want it to get killed.

(But Turkey is feeding the ISIS-monster too, to fight the Kurds. See this article for instance.)

That this monster can also turn AGAINST Russia/Putin, is what Putin experienced with the A321 full of Russians being brought down by a bomb in Sinai/Egypt. (Although it is not even clear yet that ISIS had been doing this.)
This caught him off-guard. In any other situation (such as TU154 with Polish government - "it was the pilot" , MH17 - "it was Ukraine", Total CEO Margerie - "it was drunk driver") Putin/the Kremlin had immediate/solid answers to what caused these tragedies, whereas the Dutch took a year with thorough investigation before coming to conclusions regarding MH17. With the A321, it took Putin two weeks before he gave a response. It means it must have caught him by surprise.
Now, with the Paris-attacks Putin suddenly knows: it was ISIS. The French and Russia have common enemies now. Hollande falls for this trick. And possibly a lot of other Western politicians too.

What Putin would really want, is to draw the West into a larger conflict with Islam. He wants the conflict in Syria to grow faaaaaar beyond its borders... meanwhile manipulating behind the scenes and having Russian territory itself staying out of the conflict zone or even growing by taking more pieces of its neighbours, all unattended by the West who is busy dealing with 'their own' (Putin created) problems. 

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