Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Rocket that hit School No63 did not come from Peski

School No63 in Donetsk has been hit, with two children dead.
This is the report from the Russians, claiming the shell came 'from Peski

This photo from this facebookpage:

shows how the fence is bent INWARDS. It means the shell must have come from the LEFT side.

This screenshot also shows that the shell bent the fence inwards:

This screenshot:

shows where the shell hit the ground and exploded. The two dead children are covered behind it, where the people are.
It is clear that the shell bent the fence and not the explosion, because the right part of the fence is not bent at all where the explosion hit.

Now we can draw a line from the position where the shell hit the fence to where it exploded (upper red line).
Drawn on the ground this gives the direction where it came from (lower red line).

This Google Streetview photo:

shows the same building on the background as on the facebook photo and the same sportsfield in front of it. The difference is that Streetview has a dated photo without the fence, which is newly build there.

Nevertheless, this gives us the exact location of the field and the fence:

The red arrow shows from which direction the shell came.

On a larger scale that looks like this:

The shell came from the direction of Makeevka. All that area is Russian occupied area. The Russians shot the shell and try to blame and frame Ukraine with it.

(Thanks to @Catfitz)

My previous analysis got a lot of attention and not everybody agrees with it :D.

@Conflict_Report assessed the direction more Northward:
This OSCE report even says ALL craters they saw came from NW direction:

Now another much higher quality movie has become available filming the football field impact area:

This allows for a more precise calculation, then the first estimate:

First of all look at this screenshot:

The stones forming the edge in front and outside the fence are pushed OUTWARD from the fence/field.
This can also be seen in this screenshot from the other side:

This means that the explosion happened BEYOND the stones and not IN FRONT of the stones. It means the explosion did not happen in front of the fence. Most likely the shell hit the fence first, ripping it open and bending it inwards and THEN hit the ground BEHIND the stone ridge pushing these stones backwards.

Another indication that this is indeed the case, is the damage on the green, steel pole holding the fence.

This screenshot shows that pole from the inside:

There are a few scratches on the INSIDE (left arrows) and all the paint is gone on some area at the right side (right arrows).

The OUTSIDE of that pole looks like this:

It has hardly any scratch or damage.
The pole to the left DOES have damage:

But it is hard to see what exactly it is. Either it is on the side of it, or it is because it is bend and ripped open too, like the fence. Either way the right pole, where the explosion was closest does NOT show damage OUTSIDE, indicating the explosion was (just) INSIDE the fence/field.

For comparison see the damage done to the pole that was much further away, but in the line of the blast:

It has many big and small holes (click to enlarge).

Not only the pole has damage, the fence itself is broken on many places where little fragments cut through it:

And to the left of this:

Note how the pole next to the jacket has severe holes, but the pole next to the exit has only scratches. Also the much larger pole behind the fence has severe holes.

This screenshot looks into the direction of the jacket from the blast area:

Stripes can be seen in the grass from fragments that cut through it. This is the same screenshot with red lines indicating these stripes:

This is the same from a different angle:

Only very few and little stripes can be seen on the sides of the impact crater along the fence, The main area with these stripes is here:

That was the direction of the blast and that is why the pole next to the exit has minor scratches and the pole and fence in the middle of this blast is severely damaged.

On the map it looks like this:

This basically shows from what direction the shell came:

Here is the center of the blast area in two more screenshots:

When this direction is drawn on a larger map with a 20 km range and an error margin, the shell could have been fired anywhere from within this red area:

This is much more Northwards than in the first assessment, but it is still all Russian occupied territory and impossible for Ukraine to have fired this.

One little precaution should be taken. If the shell had hit the fence first, it might have slightly changed its course.
Something like that was documented in this case when Russia fired Smerch rockets onto a Ukrainian military camp from Russian territory:

Because the rocket hit the car first it changed course before it penetrated the ground at a different angle.

Could something like this have happened too? Of course, but only within the parameters of physics.

If the shell would have come from the NW it would had to follow the yellow path. It would have hit the pole and it would be strange that the fence is ripped open at another location. The red line though shows a path that could be possible.

If we assume that something like that DID happen... how could the blast area with this distinct (and different) direction have happened?
Maybe the folded grass gives a clue? On that side most of the shrapnel was dampened by the soil and grass. Outwards of the fence the shrapnel was blocked by the stone bars and to the left most of it because this opposed the direction of impact.

So let's not be too precise. Let's keep the widest range of possibilities open. Then we would still get something like this:

New conclusion
Even with the new more detailed assessment, this shell still could not have come from NW Ukrainian side.
The fact that DIFFERENT shell types had been used, as indicated by the OSCE-report, is proof that MULTIPLE sources fired into this location simultaneously in a coordinated attack. This may also mean that they fired FROM DIFFERENT LOCATIONS and directions. Yet it is hard to believe that Ukraine would fire simultaneously onto the SAME civilian area as the Russians do! If this shell came from Russian side, ALL of them came from Russian side... even if they may have come from another direction.

Also see: Is strange impact crater proof that Ukraine fiing at the school?
Also see a similar analysis: Russia shelled Ukraine with Smerch rockets FROM RUSSIAN TERRITORY.

Update 8-11
Doesn't the impact on the pole in this photo (red rectangle):

show that the explosion was IN FRONT of the fence (red line)?

No. That pole is bend as can be seen in the yellow rectangle (click to enlarge). And even this Russian soldier/reporter says the shell did not hit in front of the fence.

and he points in the same direction as I argued above:

Taken from this video.

One of the boys said this (translation by @Catfitz):
"We were playing soccer near School No. 63. At first everything was quiet. Then a shell suddenly fell right on the school. We tried to run away, there were 9 of us, and there at the exit, near the fence on the field, a shell landed. Three guys managed to run away, it killed two of my friends, and four others, including me, were injured.
The first shell landed -- I didn't see it exactly -- I was too distracted somehow when it fell. But the second fell right under the playing field, not going into it, but under the fence, under the barrier. The fence exploded, so it turned out I didn't manage to run up to it, and it [the shell] caught me."
With this additional information we can conclude this (AGAIN but now spelled out): the shell came exactly between the fence and the stone bar. it hit the fence first at an high angle, indenting it and guiding it so it landed exactly behind the stone bars.


  1. Good Work. Thoughts and Prayers continue with those innocents murdered today.

  2. Thank you. Does anyone believe the lies coming from the Russians and the terrorists?

  3. Sadly the Russian people do. My sympathies with the victims of yet another senseless slaughter - but I have different sympathies for the Russian people - they have never enjoyed a civil society and rule of law - not in all the history of Russia. Kudos to Ukraine for trying to adopt these - but the ruling classes in Russia clearly want to be allowed to continue to plunder the country as they have always done. I think perhaps in 50 years time there will be a Putinov dynasty in power......

  4. Congratulations, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Yevhen Perebyinis quotes you as a proof:

  5. I've put this link on YT channel of Ukrain Today TV
    and they got it, in evening your blog was named on it.
    Together we stand, and can make a difference :-)

  6. the sad thing is, noone really cares. Noone seems to be seeking the truth, only excuses for their own point of view. Such a posts like yours are rare exceptions.

  7. Many thanks from ukrainians. Deep analysis, good work


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