Showing posts with label MH17. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MH17. Show all posts

Friday, May 13, 2016

Newly published satellite images show Russian BUK battery East of Kuybyshevo was operational before July 20th 2014

New Google Earth maps reveal that the Russian BUK-battery East of Kuybyshevo was already operational during July 2014.
That means the BUK that shot down MH17 could have communicated with the ones on Russian soil.

Here is an earlier publication of this BUK-battery, so we can be sure it was there.

Up till now we only had satellite image from 2013 and then September 4th 2014. Now images of 29-6, 2-7, 20-7 and 4-8 have been added.

What has been done to create the images in this blog is to trace every unique track and position on every subsequent satellite image where it FIRST appears. If it's also on the next map, it is further ignored, although it doesn't mean it hasn't been also used on that date. Also commonly used tracks and roads are ignored.
By using this method, we can see unique activity that must have happened before any specific satellite date.

Legend
Red lines = unique tracks
Red areas = areas where vehicles can be seen
Orange areas = areas where multiple tracks can be seen, likely indicating a deployment position
Green areas = tracks into/from treelines indicating (abandoned) campsites.

29-6



Not much can be seen, but there are two noticeable areas. The first is at the known BUK-team position (green area), where they had a kitchen and dug-in trenches.



Electricity poles run from left to right on the image above and there are tracks leading to/from these poles. So it is very well possible that on June 29th a team was already there making preparations, or already positioned and waiting.

The other suspicious area is this one:



Clearly tracks can be seen of a heavy machine manoeuvring in the corn. Because of the corn the tracks are obscured, but they are still so profound that they are still visible.
Farmers don't damage their own corn like that. Military vehicles do.

2-7
On the July 2nd image only a rare new track can be seen in the north:



For the rest there is not happening anything.

20-7
On the July 20th map (2 days after MH17 was shot down), several new tracks can be seen:



There is a big one leading to the trenched position (green). And there are several tracks (red lines) and positions with multiple tracks and turns (orange areas). 
Note that the July 20th map ends at 1/3 of the bottom. It's only the darker area. The lighter bottom part is from the July 2nd image. That's why the red track leading to/from the trenches can not be traced further down.

The orange area at the right looks like this:



We can clearly see vehicle tracks arriving and leaving the area again, as well as positions where they must have been deployed and operated. It is possible that multiple vehicles where deployed here at the same time, or that one or more visited the same spot again on another day and a little bit further from the previous position.

This is the middle orange area/position:



In the upper side we can see one position similar to the four we saw in the previous area. This is an indication that only one vehicle caused all these different tracks on different days.


This is the left orange area:



Not much can be seen, because it is covered with layers of mist/clouds. Only one small part of a track can be seen, along the red line in the area.

The August 2nd image shows all the tracks:



Because part of the tracks where already visible on the July 20th image, all of them must have been made on the 20th of July.

They just look like tracks, although it can not be 100% excluded that it was a deployment area. Either way it shows their was activity here.


These tracks and positions are a clear indication that the BUK-battery was fully operational before July 20th.


2-8
In the two weeks up to August 2nd some more activity can be seen: 




Very close to the upper right area on the July 20th image some more similar activity can be seen:




The upper left positions look like this:



Clear positioning and manoeuvring can be observed, but not necessarily by multiple vehicle on one day.

In the south of the area there has been activity too:



Since the July 20th image did not include this area, it might as well have been from an earlier date then July 20th. It's unclear what exactly happened here.


4-9
Up to September 4th their has been a lot of activity North, in the middle and in the East near the lake:



During August major Russian invasions and offensives took place in Ukraine, so a lot of activity is logical.

The upper red area shows very intensive use (image enhanced):



As well as some objects/vehicles (yellow circles).

In the middle there is a red area that looks like this (enhanced image):



It is also intensively used and for the first time vehicles can be seen (yellow circles). The upper one near the blue vehicle icon seems to show BUK vehicles, but the usual white tips of the missiles can't be seen:



Near the lake in the East several trucks can be seen at a campsite in the trees:



Most likely this is a basecamp for some GRAD launcher company, since North of it several GRAD launch sites with burn marks can be seen as well as a lots of tracks leading up further North:



The American ambassador to Ukraine @GeoffPyatt tweeted about one of these launch sites:
Therefor it seems very unlikely that these tracks North of the road and the lake-camp have anything to do with the BUK battery.


14-9
The activities in the area can be separated into the northern part and southern part:



Up north it looks like this:



Tents and vehicles can be seen.

A little bit westward some very typical lined up positions can be seen as well as a single truck in the field:



In the South something big is going on:



Up to nine very long trucks can be seen hidden between the trees. In the other red areas, tents and more vehicles can be seen:




6-10-2014

Strangely enough all the activity in the south ceased to exist by October 6th except for some tracks:



In the middle area a lot of white and other small trucks can be seen:



In the upper area the whole battery of BUKs can be seen lined up:



Here the white tips from the missiles CAN be seen.
With this particular line up it seems likely that the strange patterns on the 14-9 image nearby are also from these BUKs parked in the field.
Why they do this..., I have no idea. As if they WANTED satellites to capture them :P.


22-2-15
On the Febr 22th 2015 image a VERY LARGE camp can be seen South:


Just a part of it:



The timing of this camp is during the Debaltseve offensive. That started by the end of January and lasted until February 18th. So it looks like this camp existed to support this offensive.
The green areas show activity, but no vehicles can be seen anymore. These vehicles therefore most likely had been sent to Debaltseve in the previous weeks. 


The middle area had a significant upgrade (image enhanced):



But it is hard to tell if the BUKs are really there. The vehicles in the upper part more resemble MLRS than a BUK:




The northern area seems abandoned.


Conclusions
When we draw all the activity in one map, we see this:



The Area of Operation for the BUK-battalion is within the yellow ellipse with a concentration in the light blue ellipse.
The large blue ellipse is more than once used as a camping ground. It seems by february 2015 to also have included or merged with the smaller blue area. Whether the BUK-battery was still operational by that time is unclear, but there is a good chance it relocated or even stopped.


The July 20th activity TOTALLY falls within the narrower Area of Operation of the BUK battery (light blue ellipse):



Therefore we should conclude that these tracks are also made by the same BUK battery.

Tracks visible on a July 20th satellite image are made PRIOR to that date. They had been made anywhere between June 29th and July 20th.
It is safe to assume that the BUK battery was already there and operational on the fatal July 17th.

That means it was on 25 kms distance of the BUK launch site that brought down MH17. An ideal distance to setup communications with the BUKs on Russian soil.

Most likely this Russian BUK battery communicated with the MH17-BUK and got it's data and final instruction from Russians commanders within Russia territory themselves.


Epilogue
Right from the start after MH17 was taken down, I said there must have been a Russian BUK battery South of Marinovka.
Then I found positions West of Kuybyshevo with radars.
Then images of BUKs East of Kuybyshevo appeared posted on VK.
Then satellite images appeared showing BUKs parked in a row for all to see.

The sceptical, truthers and trolls kept arguing on and on.

Now I have found (with a little help from Google and such) evidence the battery was indeed operational during that fatal day.

The crash of MH17 was not a coincidence...


UPDATE
Now there are also a 16-7 and 23-7 map of the area in Google Earth.

The 16-7 map confirms what we already thought. That the southern activity was not from after 20-7, but before:


The inset on the bottom right might actually be a BUK (with the white tips of the missiles merged together):



The activity in the northern area can not be observed on the 16-7 map. And thus this activity has been taken place between 16-7 and 20-7:


Wednesday, March 9, 2016

One soldiers VK-album gives more info on the Russian BUKs South of Marinovka

Eshi-Zhalsan Dorzhiev has a VK-photo-album including BUK launchers and many photos geotagged near Kuybyshevo, south of Marinovka.
His album clarifies the situation with these BUKs a bit more.
This of interest because BUKs at that location could have communicated with the BUK south of Snizhne that shot down MH17.

Eshi's entire album is saved, since in general when such things get publicity, they are removed in a couple of days. 
This is the first part of the album:






11-1-2014
The first photo appears on Jan 11th 2014 with Eshi driving a truck. It means the photo was uploaded on this date. It must have been taken on or before this date. But we don't know how long before these upload-dates a photo was taken.





2-4-2014
On April 2nd photos were uploaded of him with team members in front of BUKs:



This photo is taken on the military base in Vladikavkaz (close to Georgia) like this:





It means the other photos with BUKs are also taken somewhere at that base:


On Eshi's hat it says 222, obviously the number of the BUK he is operating.

Another photo shows some more numbers:



So nr 233-loader (or TEL) and 23x launcher (or TELAR) are in Vladikavkaz too.


6-7-2014
On July 6th there is a photo of a military plane on an airport:

The soldiers on the photo are photographed on their back, walking towards the plane. So they are entering the plane for departure and not arriving here. The photo could not be geolocated on any airfield nearby Vladikavkaz though. Most likely it was an earlier photo when Eshi's group departed to go to Vladikavkaz.


1-8-2014
On August 1st photos where uploaded showing his regiment: the 67th Anti-aircraft Missile Brigade
from the 58th Army.



Some celebration going on:


And also some photos of Eshi in a train:


These photos must have been taken anywhere after the previous upload and this date. So between July 6th and August 1st. MH17 was taken down on July 17th. So the question is: was he already there on the 17th?


6-8-2014
Another photo in the train:

Not likely did he do another journey by train a week later. This must be a photo from the same trip.


On August 6th he also uploaded a photo of him standing in some bush holding his hat full of apricots with a truck and a BUK on the background:

It means he has arrived on the BUK position south of Marinovka. Very likely he was NOT on this location before his previous upload date of August 1st. But it can not completely be ruled out, since he might have had some intensive introduction time at the location before having time to chill out and make photos.


21-8-2014
More photos of him between trees:


Barbecuing on the ground:




23-9-2014
On Sept 23rd this geotagged photo of a shelter appears in the album:


The geotagged location is here:



Many more photos are there with exactly the same location.

On the dinner table:

A fellow soldier in a truck:


Another photo of the shelter:

This one has enough of the surroundings on it, that verification of the location is possible. The photo has been taken like this:



The opening itself can not be seen in Google Earth but the sand in front of and around it can be seen:



The red arrows indicate the border of this sand.

This group photo was taken on the other side of the treeline:

Like this:



This all means the geotagging was correct and the photos where indeed taken at this location.

This photo shows a camouflaged BUK between the trees:



Indeed Google Earth shows several tracks in and out of the trees along the treeline here.

There are also trenches between the trees:


The dinner table again photographed from the other side:

They had installed a wooden frame next to it, to have some shelter.

More shelters and fortifications:



Another view at the dinner-area, with the barbecue on the front, the wooden frame and table on the background and a line of mugs for brushing teeth probably.


More crew members:

This photo (taken on the south side of the treeline looking West) shows some antenna that can not be seen on Google Earth:


This is not a typical BUK antenna. So it might be possible that this is for communicating with other units and HQ?


16 october 2014
A photo on a bridge overseeing a river:

It is geotagged in Rostov-on-Don:



He must be on his way back again. And he left anywhere between Sept 23rd and Oct 16th.

Nevertheless he still uploads photos from the BUK-location:


18-10-2014
He is in the train again:



He uploaded the photo on the 18th and the previous upload was on the 16th, so he must have traveled by train on Oct 17th.

Again also uploading photos from the BUK-location:


29-10-2014
On October 29th Eshi uploads photos that are geotagged at the Vladikavkaz-base again:






Based on these geotagged photos and the tracks that can be seen in Google Earth on the Sept 14th image, the entire area that is used for parking vehicles at that position is like this:



Red square = location of geotagged photos
Also tracks leading to/from the camp area can be seen. On the Sept 4th image even a truck can be seen (inset) within the red square.
The total area of operation for the BUKs is much larger than this camp though.


Conclusions
After these 2014 photos Eshi does not upload anything military anymore and before this album he did not have anything military either. He has been uploading these photos from January to October 2014, a period of ten months. He typically is a conscript doing his one-year-time and he has been trained to work an a BUK.

He travelled by train to Rostov-on-Don anywhere between July 6th and August 1st.
He probably arrived at the Kuybyshevo BUK position anywhere between August 1st and August 6th. But it can not completely be ruled out that he might have already been there two weeks earlier.

He most likely has traveled back from Rostov-on-Don to Vladikavkaz by train on October 17th. It means he was 2,5 to 3 months at the Kuybyshevo BUK location.

At this point we can unfortunately not be conclusive about whether Eshi was at this location on July 17th or not.


According to the Bellingcat report MH17 – Potential Suspects and Witnesses from the 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade BUK 222 was replaced by BUK 3x2 that had downed MH17. 



It seems BUK 222 was at the Vladikavkaz base in the first half of 2014. And it seems Eshi was operating it. This confirms that it's 'normal crew' was doing something else, such as operating BUK 3x2... 
UPDATE: it turns out different brigades can have the same numbers, so the argument about #222 is obsolete.


Other geotagged BUK photos near Kuybyshevo
A much used photo from another VK-album is this one:


By now it is deleted from the album, but it was in an album with a geotagged photo near the Kuybyshevo BUK position. See this article. It was impossible to geolocate it anywhere in that area though.

One photo of Eshi now sheds light on this:



We can see the same or a similar wall. But the background differs significantly. Nevertheless both photos must have been taken at the Vladikavkaz base near Georgia, with one looking south to the mountains and the other looking East where no such high mountains are. Something like this:


But... the BUK has no numbers and had a fresh paint job. Typically something the Russians were doing with anything approaching and/or entering Ukraine. So it is very well possible that this particular BUK had indeed been transported to Kuybyshevo. And that THAT was the reason the owner had geotagged it at that location. 

Another (also deleted) photo from the same person is this one:


That one typically looks like a camouflaged BUK as we have seen in Eshi's photos. And therefore this one DOES seem to have been taken near Kuybyshevo.

Some particular detail on both photos is the wire running along all the boxes, obviously to prevent them from opening:




So far I have never seen this on any other BUK. It's an(other) indication that the BUKs near Kuybyshevo indeed came from the Vladikavkaz base.

Furthermore, the soldier on the left is seen on a group photo from Eshi too:



Another photo that had been geotagged near Kuybyshevo is this one:



Note that the environment EXACTLY fits the Kuybyshevo-position, e.g. tree line, high yellow-brown corn, grass.
The number is visible, but not very clear. It definitely is a BUK loader (TEL). The number might be 232 or 233 on first sight. A high contrast version shows it must be 233, since the third number has a bend at the red arrow, where the number two is more straight:



This is the number of the BUK that Eshi is photographed with in Vladikavkaz:




And that one is a loader indeed.


The BUKs near Kuybyshevo must have come from Vladikavkaz. Exactly when they arrived there, is still unclear. More satellite images might give answer to that question, since the oldest 2014-image in Google Earth at this moment from that region is from Sept 4th 2014.

This doesn't rule out the possibility that prior to the 67th arriving at Kuybyshevo (if that was after the July 17th) a BUK radar from the 53th had been driven to Kuybyshevo to connect with nr 3x2.


UPDATE 9-6-2016
The earlier position at the Vladikavkaz base was not completely correct. With the current correct position, these must have been the BUKs on the photos:


Note that the photos are taken on April 2nd 2014 and the satellite image is taken on April 10th.

On August 9th 2015 these positions are empty:


On Sept 18th 2015 (other?) vehicles are back on these spots:


This is a confirmation that the BUKs near Kuybyshevo came from Vladikavkaz.





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