Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Analysis of shelling at Pervomaisk of Dec 7th

On Dec 7th Pervomaisk has been heavily shelled. Three videos show the destruction.

VIDEO 1 shows the most impacts throughout the city:

Almost all of these impacts can be geolocated.

Video #2 also shows  several impacts, starting with 'the collapsed apartment':

Video #3 is from Dec 8th and shows how people clear the destruction at the 'collapsed apartment' and recover two dead women (which are shown at the end of the video):

All these impacts seem to be from GRAD rockets.

Here is the mapping of almost all shelling of video #1:

More details of the Northern part:

As can be seen two buildings perpendicular to each other are hit on one side. If these impacts are made by the same attack from the same direction (which is likely), then this limits the possible direction quite a lot. 
The yellow lines indicate the limits from what direction the rockets may have come.
It looks like they must have come from the NorthWest - North.

But the 6:02 impact is a special case:

Since it impacted on the ground and the buildings are quite high and it was quite close to the buildings, it could ONLY have gone through the gap between those buildings. Or otherwise it would have hit those buildings. See the long red line in the image above. (Note that there is actually more space than it seems on that image, because the top of the buildings shifted a little bit from their real place, because the satellite took the images at an angle.)
It means this particular one came from almost exact Northern direction.

When we extend that northern line and zoom out, it looks like this:

Orange line = approximate front line according to Russian Propaganda site MilitaryMaps.

It comes from the direction of Zolote.
Could the Russian terrorists have fired these shots?

Yes, easily.
This zoomed in map shows that they can find several concealed positions from where they can fire without too much risk of return fire, because there are a lot of trees around:

The Southern impacts look like this:

Two sides of the same apartment building have been hit. That means it must have come from SW direction, but it can not be narrowed down as much as the Northern ones.

It looks more like this:

Red lines = cone of directions that could possibly hit both sides.

On a larger scale that looks like this:

Distance to the front line is 10 to 16 kms.
Could the Russians have fired these? Easily.

One thing is absolutely clear. This is a different attack. The northern and southern shells come from DIFFERENT sources/directions. They could not have all come from the same direction, because different facing sides of buildings have been hit.

Collapsed apartments
When we look at the impact of the apartments, we see this:

Two sides are damaged:

The whole wall with windows has been blown out:

The debris of the windows lies on the opposite side of the street:

There must have been an explosion INSIDE that blew all this so far away.

On the other side the wall has been completely blown away:

So much that the floor has partly come down and another part risks to fall down as well:

And all the debris seems to lay outwards: 

To be honest... such TOTAL destruction does not seem like the result of a GRAD actually:

Look at all the other impacts in the videos. They are relatively small compared to this.

The only explanation can be that something exploded INSIDE and the air pressure blew out the side and front walls. But could a GRAD rocket do that?
Maybe it was more than one rocket...? Maybe it was a really poor construction anyway...? 

It would be really strange if a GRAD rocket first penetrated the big outer wall and then exploded inside. So maybe a rocket entered through the window and then exploded inside?
If so, it must have been a 'lucky shot' because it also had to enter through the next door, since that one is still standing:

Such things are not impossible though. Shells and rockets land on the weirdest places, just wherever they land.

But we also see this:

There is a pattern of small impacts and holes on the outer wall. THAT indicates something exploded OUTSIDE. But the pattern is quite irregular and strange.

Conclusion: something exploded outside AND something exploded inside...?
It's a mess...
For now let's say that 2 or more GRAD rockets hit this building.

From which direction?
If the outside pattern was created by an exploding GRAD, it must have come perpendicular on the planar that goes through all impact areas. Meaning it must come somewhere from W to SW.
If the other GRAD went through the window and the door it must have come from SW to S.

That means if both GRADs were fired (almost) simultaneously, then they must have come from the SW:

And THAT means they could have been fired by the same launcher as the other southern impacts, with only a minor adjustment for range.

Pervomaisk has been attacked by GRAD rockets from (at least) two different sides. Technically, these COULD have been fired by Ukrainians and they COULD have been fired by Russians.

But it is not likely that Ukrainians did this. It is a random attack on a non-military target with zero military advantage and with a HUGE effect on lost-Western-support and food-for-Kremlin-trolls and you name it.
WHY ON EARTH would they be so stupid to do that?

You can say a lot about Poroshenko, but it is clear that he is NOT a warlord. He is NOT an army general who WANTS to fight. He is NOT a warmonger.
He wants peace. He wants to do business. He orders unilateral cease-fires for crying out loud. When was the last time you heard him say: "Let's just kill all the bastards!"
No, Poroshenko holds peace-talks in Minsk. He does not want to fight. He does not want to randomly kill civilians.

Yet, on the other hand, there are MANY examples of Russians killing innocents (or their own), not caring about them etcetera, deliberately shelling civilian areas, you name it.

So based on directions, we can not conclude who did it. But based on history and track record, it must be clear: the Russians are messing with civilian lives again and they manage to make a good show of it...!

If anybody wants to proof that Ukraine is doing such ridiculous things, you will have to come with SOLID UNDENIABLE proof. Or else just be silent... :D.

A video with English subtitles has been released which is quite revealing:

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