Friday, June 20, 2014

My interpretation of 'the invasion' event

Russia invaded Ukraine with 25-50 vehicles today.
Earlier it had already send three tanks and a GRAD unit.

After the downing of the IL-76 Ukraine vowed to close the borders. It pushed hard on three areas as can be seen on this map:

Blue dotted line = border with Russia
Green line = natural barrier by river
Red dotted line = approximate rebel area
Small blue circles = Army bases

Blue #1 and #2: bases of Ukrainian army

At point #3, the Ukrainian army tried to break through the natural barrier to try to cut of the eastern connection of Slovyansk. No supply and reinforcements means Slovyansk will fall.

At point #4 the army tried to break through the natural barrier to try to secure the borders from the North.

At point #5 they try to recapture the border crossings from the South. Actually they were quite successful at it.

The response from Russia is this:

At red point #1 there were paratroopers drop and an attack towards the border post. This is to cut off army group blue #5. When they are cut off, they will need to surrender or will be destroyed.

Across the yellow line substantial reinforcements entered the area. I suspect the initial group to have been divided into three groups, because the later sightings did not have all the vehicles that were reported to have entered.
The column (or what was left of it) has been seen in Horlivka the last. Three things can happen:

#2 the airfield of Donetsk will be attacked, because they will need airports.
#3 the penetrating Ukrainian froce in the North-West will be countered. This is a very logical thing. It will happen.
#4 Lugansk airport will be captured and the northern army stopped.
#5 the southern border attack force (blue #5) will be cut off, attacked and/or destroyed.

Since the borders are far from closed, Putin will bring in as many forces as needed to repel the advance of the army and to keep control of the borders.
With control of the borders, the entire Russian army might eventually drive in.

But... I'm just a guy with an opinion...

UPDATE 21-6:
The air-defense systems near the airfield indeed were attacked last night:
But eventually the Radar installation has been destroyed.
A similar Lugansk radar has been destroyed earlier. See report here. It means Ukraine cannot detect anymore what is coming in or going out.

1 comment:

  1. People, At least stop supporting Russia with your own money. Never buy fuel from Lukoil !
    Europe is full of Lukoil brand and most people are not even aware that this is a Russian company who is the biggest taxpayer in Russia!

    This money is directly used in this warfare !


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