Monday, May 19, 2014

Putin's gameplan fails without China's backup 19-5

Putin does not recognize the current government in Kiev.
His goal is to frustrate the elections on the 25th of May. If he succeeds he might get Yanukovych back as president.
He does not necessarily want to occupy (all of) Ukraine. But he needs Ukraine to side with Russia and not with Europe.
If he cannot get the West of Ukraine, the East will suffice.

His short term tactics are: create chaos, weaken and blame the interim government. He has done this by making it impossible for local police and government to function. He succeeded very well in this.

For now his goal is to frustrate the elections.

Why has he not been invading the East Ukraine from the start?
Answer: If he can reach his goals as easy as this, why would he pay a higher price?

Putin's overall long term goals are to create a new World Order with Russia as a much more dominant player and America with a minor role.
He will side with China to do this. China also wants to become a geopolitical player.

Russia's gas deal with China should provide for all the money he needs for his economy to keep running AND therefor to keep the war going.

But if this deal with China will be cancelled, there is nothing else for Putin left then to stop what he has been doing!

And now China does not even want to build the Kerch bridge!
This means Putin has lost the ally he needed. He is in serious trouble now. Annexing Crimea, without getting Eastern Ukraine will be a huge disaster for him. Without water, electricity, gas and food from Ukraine, Crimea can not exist. Without a bridge, trade and transport cannot be done efficiently.

This will turn the tide...

Also see: Did China just Checkmate Russia in Ukraine.
Also see: China plans new Silk Route across Ukraine It explains China's original plans for Crimea with Ukraine and why it might not be interested in building the Kerch bridge.

UPDATE 21-5:
Now the BIG QUESTION is: how will this affect the crisis in the Ukraine? Will Putin now have enough confidence to continue his malversations there?

Big question is: will he be able to get the advanced payment from China? If so, he will have the money to proceed. If not, he will have to maintain a low profile.

UPDATE 27-5:
Disturbing Ukraine's election FAILED. Congratulations for Ukraine. This does not mean trouble is over. More troops flood Ukraine than before. See this article. If everything else fails turning East-Ukraine into something like Transdniester will do, for the time being.

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