Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Likely area determined of Russian SAM that shot down AN-26 on July 14th

This video shows how a SAM rocket hits the Ukrainian AN-26 cargo aircraft that had just droped supplies to the units near Izvarino:

Screenshots from the video:

First we see a white smoke trail with a glowing point.

The AN-26 has propellor engines that don't give a smoke trail. So the trail must from the rocket.

It makes quite a turn:

Likely because the pilot makes an evasive move. 
The plane still goes round:

But the smoke disappears for a while. This is partly because the camera is zooming out and it is harder to see, but also because the burning engine does not make that much smoke as the rocket.

Next the engine or fuel tanks explode, while the plane is going straight down:

Again the trail is hard to see for a while, but in the end it lits up for another moment:

Maybe the other engine of something else explodes.

Note how the rocket comes from left and behind the cameraman, and almost goes in the same direction as where he is filming to. 

At the end of the video there are shots of the crashed plane:

It is reported that the plane had crashed near Davydo-Mykilske. There are not many long small buildings in this village, so the crash location is easy to determine:

Next we have a look at the environment of the cameraman:

Checking all the villages in the area, we can find a match here:

The pole can not exactly be determined, but there is a footbal field nearby which explains the pole perfectly.

Now we can have a look at the crash site and camera position on a large scale:

Blue line = line of sight of cameraman

Since the rocket comes from the left side into the view, the red arrows are indicative for the direction where it comes from.

When we look at this on a larger scale:

We can see that there is a PERFECT area where the SAM could have been shot from, because this is a very forward position on RUSSIAN territory. Or to put it different: if the Russian would have to put a anti-air system somewhere, they should put it there, because it would give them the deepest range into Ukrainian territory.

If we look at that area more closely:

we can see numerous spots that would be good position for A SAM-unit. Personally (but WHO am I?) would choose the yellow spot, because it gives the deepest coverage into Ukraine, it is not too close to the border, it is not too close to a village to bother the people and it can give good protection.

This location in Google maps:

Whatever the exact location is, scouts need to investigate the area to see where it really is.

Some more things:
  • this area / position is WITHIN a 24 km range of the crash site, which is lowest range of any Russian SAM-system.
  • Since the aircraft was flying at 6200 meters, no MANPAD could have shot it down.
  • It doesn't make sense for the Russian army to deploy a SAM system on Ukrainian ground. FIRST they deploy it close to the border. LATER they will deploy it on Ukrainian territory.
  • A SAM-system like the BUK-1 is too difficult to be operated by 'local militia'.
Here is a video of the BUK-M1:

Here is another video of the crashing plane.

If you have any additional information, please let me know.

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